traitor

stoped out , loss 70 cents

good place to reverse if price actions deems it.
Silver broke out of a triangle formation upwards and screwed us

I'm hitting the sac
 
We have seen that governments are buying real gold over paper gold. Lets have a look why and what their thought process may be.

ETF and currency exchanges have been trading gold with ridiculous leverage. The government has imposed regulations on this not allowing Currency brokers to offer gold trading to their clients.

Lets use an example to show the difference between paper and real gold.

Say me and and the 7 or so people that downloaded my previous gold triangle chart along with the 2 more decide to buy some leveraged gold.

We each put in 1600$ and buy using some crazy leverage. We have money set aside to fund the account in case price does not go up.

In total we invest 16,000$ multiplying this by 400 or 500 to get our leverage means that we have in our possession 8 million dollars (or 5000 ounces) of gold with an investment of only a combined 16,000 (or 10 ounces)

Now, the currency exchange probably didn't take our 8 million bp and buy physical gold with it, at most they probably took 100% of our investment to buy 10 ounces of gold.

The demand we created on currency exchange was substantial (8 million dollars) the demand we created on physical gold was negligible (16,000)

Now, say the value of gold begins to go down and takes out a key area and we see price begin to fall dramatically. We each pull out our money along with many others creating a huge supply of paper gold. Our currency broker on the other hand liquidated its physical gold which represents a negligible 1/500th of the selling from its clients. This is easily absorbed by demand in the physical market.

People decide to invest in the real metal as the governments are doing, but they find that no one is selling rather there is a new demand for physical gold. Paper gold prices continue to stay low. physical owners are not selling at prices the currency market is posting.

There has not been a massive supply of physical gold but there has been a massive selling of paper gold. The difference is a ratio of 1:500

Since there is no supply of gold, and a lot of people want to buy, price of physical gold goes up. The currency exchanges may try to reflect this in their price but if people weren't buying at 1600 they surely aren't going to buy at 1800

Two different prices of gold emerge and paper gold is quickly seen as dollars once was seen. Since currency brokers can play with leverage numbers and more currency exchanges popup giving leverage we see that all this leverage is similar to the fed printing money and devaluing paper gold. It is now not a hedge against inflation or a safe haven, rather it is seen as the opposite.

Brokers offering high leverage go bust, one buys out the other and finally the banks buy them out. Goldman now has a big chunk of these companies.

Ron Paul wins the election!

While all this is going on, states begin to use gold as currency, people want to make their purchases in gold but find it hard to buy a chocolate bar with a gold flake that often blows away in the wind. States decide to use digital gold instead. Sort of like a gold credit card. Goldman buys up this system.

Goldman now owes all the paper gold that is backed by 1/500 of an ounce of gold.
Government owns the actual gold.

People are happy, Ron paul is a god they scream thinking that they are now on the gold standard.

Years down the line a recession comes over us, Goldman is hungry for money.

The government orders Goldman to increase its leverage creating new paper gold. Goldman sells off the paper gold for some profit. The economy is now stimulated. Paper gold is devalued. The government no longer has to get approval to print more money as it is actually Goldman that is simply playing with leverage. A new way to create inflation is born.

But how does all this begin ?

The government passes a silly law that states that currency brokers can not sell gold. This leaves the door open to banks being allowed to sell paper gold and wipes out much of the competition.

Paper gold will be a monopoly owned by friends of the government.

Government buys back physical gold from citizens at a premium and then confenscate the rest or deems it illegal to trade real gold.

Suddenly, there is close to 0 physical gold left on the market. .01 percent of the population are interested in buying on the black market. Since supply of gold is so low. The price for physical shoots up through the roof.

And there you have it, Government has just the currency it needs thanks to ron pauls campaigning about real money/ gold.


I'm no economist so i imagine a lot of things are wrong with this. Notably the part about what actually happens to physical gold prices. the whole black market thing is a sign of thinking to far ahead.
 
Its pretty sad to not see a big rebound at these price levels. the long term gold buyers are confused as to where the trend is since the last spike it seems.

There is no news about gold. Even if there is it tends to be anti gold.

Golds trying to hold on but there's no news to hold on to. Im forced to watch conspiracy theory's on youtube and find myself agreeing with a lot of it until I see the charts..

Anyways that aside

I got my trading account up and running.
placed a few trades today so as to get used to the platform. the first trade had no stop loss.

In my next post will be my buys
 
Trading on meta trader 4, here are my buys for today all with the same # of ounces. Profit and lose are based on a single ounce for ease.

Buy 1 at 17:12 price 1652.97 profit -4.7 $ (no stop loss first trade)

price then fell immidiatly and i begun buying again.

buy 2 15:51 1646.10 profit .30$ per ounce (trouble selling)
buy 3 had been grouped with above as i had trouble selling
buy 4 18:00 1648.33 profit -2.13 (used a stop)
buy 5 20:37 1650.2 profit -1.01 (used stop)

So what we see here is that the first trade was terrible. which is OK if I had a stop loss but I'm familiarizing with the software.

So buy 1 was a lose.
buy 2, buy 3 and buy 4 and buy 5 all resulted in a lose.

However, we see that every one of these buy prices were higher then the previous one, indicating that I was correct to presume price was to move up through out the day.

It was not being patient that made me get out too fast or not having enough space between entry and stop

Sounds simple? but if I lower my stops I can have a situation like my first trade where i lost 4 dollars almost instantly.

Also lowering stops plays with my risk to reward numbers.

Maybe im looking at my entry on a longer time frame and then fine tuning it on a smaller one. I really cant tell any advice
 
At around 3:50 am last night we saw a break of my triangle both lower lines were penetrated resulting in a 20 $ drop. Unfortunately I was asleep when this had happened. Otherwise I would of been short.

Now these lines were broken on short term chart but they were drawn on a long term daily chart. So it is possible that this is a FAKE BREAK.

None the less a fake break out represents weak resistance and a high chance for price to fall at that point again if price does go back up.

Price has been so sluggish that I am ready to assume that if we don't have some sort of positive news soon (before we see lower bars on the daily) we are heading DOWN if indeed this is not a fake break.

If this is a real break out. Price is now set to hit our multi year trend line since it is a diagonal line, The price point will depend on time. But if we see a fairly fast drop, we can see price at 1550 levels. This is if price does not consolidate for some time.

This lower trend line had better prove as resistance. It basically represents the trend line that touches all the lows. There is no price under this line. It is the line that people have been using to buy gold for years at.

The trend line that was broken last night was a new trend that we were hoping would develop so that we can see price increase at a steeper rate.

I must stress that price can easily go back up as it has already tried 3 times today. Any direction is likely. We just choose one and play it and let our ratio play out.

As long as we are below the broken trend line I play it short.

This market is crap and there is no news to help us out. Also the recent 1900 mark through off many peoples indicators, moving averages or lines. This in turn means that when people buy they are not getting a bunch of people buying with them as they used to. This is very discouraging. Risk has gone up. No good news. This is the most bearish I have seen gold. People will start to get out of this market. Hitting our +1500's could be a good thing, if we see unified buying at that level with good price moves it will regroup the community and represent normality in the markets. If we get some good news when we hit that long term line it will really help out. I'm glad we are not there right now with all this news about how good the US is doing. We need to hit that level with; fear of the markets, a reminder that our AAA rating was downgraded and a nice stimulus package that is clearly inflationary. Its all about when the news comes out, not so much what the news is. We need chart technitions and news players to come and buy at the same level.




Once I post my new buys and sells you will find that i had left a long position open with a stop loss that was hit based on a bounce off the trend line that went the wrong way.

I have started to lower my stop loss to a pivot low. This seems to have worked out well to some degree.

I had a problem with this as one of my positions was clearly showing signs of weakness and I could not get out cause i wanted to only be stopped out.

If I get out earlier then my stop I have a tendency to get out too fast like my previous trades that were buys in an up trend but resulted in loses.
 
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