Train Wreck Journal

BeautifulStranger

BeautifulStranger

As I kneel here before the Eye of Providence,

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I realize that keeping a public journal can enhance my self-flagellation also known as retail short term trading.

Looks like there's rain ahead
Like there is a crack in the heavens

While self-flagellation is a worthy goal in of itself, the joy of pain diminishes over time. thus my efforts at re-intensification.

Feels like my day could be turning
Like I can tell my luck's gonna change

My number one cause of joy by far is cutting profits short. Getting on the wrong side at the end of a move and stopping out is pedestrian. Getting on the right side of a move and taking one tick while the instrument then moves 10,000 ticks uninterrupted is an joy of pain that never seems to get old.

If you could see me now
I'd probably let you down

For those looking to do the opposite of the opening trades in this journal, be aware I'm very lucky. The full extent of my self flagellation will only be known when I close particular trades. I will be trading on a swing time frame.

But that's enough for me
You got me begging, baby

I will be looking for specific setups and follow a specific ruleset for entries and exits. Specifics will be posted as my trades are made as I progress towards my maximum deductible capital loss of $3000 for the year.

Looks like I'm on my knees again
Feels like the walls are closing in

Not that I should let a somewhat small and arbitrary amount get in the way of my pleasure.

Looks like that tables have turned
Like there's a change in the weather

Besides, should I fail to obtain the pleasure of pain in this journal, perhaps I could reevaluate what constitutes pain. Just kidding.

Feels like my time is returning
Like I'm about to get out of this cage

Maybe.

"
"
 
This thread is still alive? Ok... Let's have some fun. At least until my parole officer catches me or a social worker searches my room and takes away my tablet.

I am going to create a dedicated, live trading account for this thread. There will be screenshots of the initial deposit, trades, end of day performance, and a monthly update of daily account value changes. I will post my thesis for a particular trade, initial stops and primary targets or other exit strategy.

My S&M journey will mainly use options strategies over different time frames. As such, I will scale in and scale out of positions. I will often miss entries and exits since I'm a part time trader and am subject to certain required activities, although hours and daily attendance vary.

Vertical spreads either represent a high confidence trade or a reversion to mean play.

Broken wing butterflies(BWB) will be used for trend resumption ideas, usually when VIX and the underlying instrument are near median levels.

Partially hedged vertical spreads are similar to overwrites and will be used in similar circumstances to BWBs, except that I'm not that concerned about an extended move or have plentiful margin relative to my expected needs.

I may adjust my options positions relatively frequently in order to maintain a "Minimum theta gradient". In other words, most of my trades will be theta seeking credits and may roll any position that "earns" too little.

Instruments will be futures contracts, ETFs, and single names.

I hear footsteps down the hall. Got to go.
 
Ok, that was a close one. I'm going to have to keep it brief to avoid being discovered.

Additional Interactive Brokers account approved last night. Wired 30K today and bought treasury notes with a face value of $20k. For $385 in maintenance margin, I will earn $742 in interest for 2023.

I will start out trading conservatively, even by my standards, and will increase size as performance warrants.

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Damn, the macro environment seems complicated right now. How to reconcile the geopolitical situation? What is a reasonable expectation for equity valuations with an inverted yield curve and rising interest rates? Is credit going to get harder to obtain? There are still supply chain issues that are hurting productivity. At least the pandemic seems to be waining.

Asia is strong this morning and there does seem to be some appetite for risk elsewhere. Assuming no major adverse events, it seems the most reasonable call is the market will continue to chop higher for March. Perhaps a synthetic overwrite is a good way to play it. Would have liked VIX to have held up better yesterday.

Depending on RTH opening, I will look to buy a ES 50/30 delta put bull spread partially hedged using MES with stops near yesterday's low.
 
No long for me as ES low price is below yesterday's low and below the open. Where did the money flow towards risk go?

I would look for a short, but my selection criteria for shorts is much stricter than for longs. Would be open minded for a reversion to mean buy, but this will not present itself today. Probably no trades for today.
 
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