Trading YM

This basing on intraday time frames after a sharp drop is good. Could be some accumulation for a small move up. Or it could be the opposite. SP500 has broken its up trend on the daily chart only a minor violation, NQ is still holding its up trend line barely though, and YM is sitting on its up trend line as well. Given the Season and the nice 4 month up trend, things look a tad shaky. Add in a new Fed Chairman and record energy prices and well go figure.
 
Quote from Grob109:

start the day by finding the normal offset.

I make a vertical cahart with several columns.

On left are ten point values of the cash

In next column I write a price at a moment in time.

In third column I note the offest

In fourth column I note points of Squeese if any. This is value of normal offset minus the current offset if current offset is smaller than normal. This is a signal to go long. The reason is this: smart money in the index front runs the cash values.

You and I think in the opposite manner. You think that the cash moves before the index. I think the index moves before the cash. It is just a difference of opinion. One of us is correct and one of us is wrong. About the same ratio of winners to losers exists for my view compareded to your view. Another ratio that is the same is those who think I am wrong compared to those who agree with me usually. Your view is with the vaste majority.

In trading a lot of people would rather be right than be rich. About 4 out of 5, it seems.

In the fifth column I note points of stretch, if any. This is value of normal offset minus the current offset if current offset is smaller than normal. This is a signal to go long. The reason is this: smart money in the index front runs the cash values.


After a short while I change color of ball point.

What my chart tells me is how much squeese is necessary for a long trend to begin and conversely what kind of stretch is necessary for a short trend to begin. It carries over from day to day. when I mentor aftr awhile it turn this over to theperson learning withh the proviso that he say "squeese" or "stretch" the millisecond that he sees it. Soon he is able to hit T on the index he is trading that LAGS the smart money on YM and DJ.

This kind of trading is referred to front running same-side traders.

What you are doing is very neat and important. You miraculously sort of are cogently discovering a detail of the market that is known to almost no one until it is explained to them.

This is a volume measure in the final analysis (monitoring and analysis). But that is OT here.

The minor problem that you are having with your insightful dicovery of squeese and strech is that because you have come to believe another set of truthhs than the real ones, you use your new found knowledge to dig a deeper more conscious hole in the world of market myths. Too bad.

Obviously I am a messenger. The tradition in ET is to shoot the messenger.

If you made ten charts over ten days, you would find that when you wake up in the morning after a chart each day, more and more doubts would arise. If you journalled those doubts as doubts and beagan to show yourself why you feel funny, then you might reread or debrief yourself on the topic that came up. gradually you will begin to counter the present myths you believe with the real truths. Both will stay in your mind and the one you have known the longest keeps an advantage for quite a while. It never goes away.

You can see that getting of on the feet you chose is going to be with you always. as it turns out either the tangle or the journalling to rid yourself of doubts will prevail.

Another recently told me he meant to post the right thing but just did it backwards by mistake. It was respect to how the bid/ask works for determining market direction. I assume he made a typing error because he said he did. But I do know from other postings, he has a lot of myths to deal with since he agrees with others who share the same myths. He may be in denial type place or a suppression condition to eliminate the tangle that is building up for him. Funny story eh??...

10 sheets is the cure because you yourself can figure out what the answer is.
More...

Attached is an exampe of the format we use here for the sheet I was speaking of above. It is a little different since it is used to show Dow indexes front run (lead) Dow cash and both of which lead the ES. Don Bright had commented that his anomoly oriented Prop traders trade equities and use the DJ and YM as indicators since they lead the lagging stuff he recommends in his shops.

So you see many columns and on the left a connect the dits chart of YM values with bar # at the nodes.

I will post the ES trades (20 actions over a 10 point daily H-L for 13JAN04). Two attachments will be the log and the print. I did not use grabascreen to pull the chart...sorry.

I keep file folders of these sets of pages in file drawers and cardboard boxes when the cabinets get full.

This is on your level.

I pulled a similar set (17.0 points per contractper day) for another level (the multiple of (H-L trading See Mak)) in another thread (by date type reference for prior posting) to show both the chart annotations and the log and a typed version of the log. This set is for giving to those who are on that level. They read and study it to be able to duplicate the annotating and then the trading.

As you can see in this set and the other are much the same and just on differing skill levels.

My trading and mentoring logs, videos of live trading, etc collection is good background material for those who will be using it in the future.

None of this stuff, as has been proven on ET, to have any value or worth because it is not "believable". So it is very easy to conclude that there is no use or market for it. I do write a lot of books in other fields but I have been able to take guidance in this field from the audience out there.
 

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Here is the log for the beginner level.

Notice he was not in the groove after synch.

In one of the blank columns calculate the duration of each hold. This will make you, at least, learn to read the log.

The very right has informal motations on days cummulative profits. I am of Kenny Rogers view on this. Count later and not when playing.

To get acquainted with differnt levels of skill etc. Just minimize the misatkes you see and multiply the number of contracts.

By making a chart using compound interest, and more contracts, greater effectivienss and greater efficiency in the columns you can then lay out just what your game plan is for gaining knowledge, skills and experience.

The difference here in 7.1 beginner points and the referenced 17.0 points (each per contract for one day) is not much.

Also having more contracts at play makes little difference. Obviously using 10 contracts, nominally, at the 17 point level gives you an annualized column that requires a fairly good dissability policy backing it up. Liz is processing a 225K policy today as a shift from 6 months ago. (One of the side effects of this stuff for her business).
 

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Here is the IB print.

We are on MST here in AZ and our time never changes during the year. Trading is just a morning activity here so most of the day is free for other things. We do have AC in January it turns out so there a little db in the background. you can check out the secreen set up as posted elsewhere.

Nitro took the trouble to post in response to another of my postings. He deep view is that I am , as eletron backs up, a bullshitter and futhrmore I use the software Nitro citied to fake all the prints I used to post. His views and all the others that detract, speak for them selves.

What I am posting to you is just a further note on what I am talking about. Thats it. I walk the walk. And these attachments are a beginners efforts using my set up.

It is not complicated to me how ET operates. I operate on a different basis. I fully recognize and do it promptly when I see a post by a person who has great potential and is still not screwed up by the myths of the market.

Babak just got done proving to himself that volume does not matter. Nitro says I am using software to fake prints. Not my or your problem. You are sitting on an opportunity that is "unbelievable" to these types. Go to work and try to realize whatever potential presents itself to you.
 

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