Trading with a Stop Loss in the Futures Market is for Losers

the1 · Jul 6, 2011

This is a great instrument if you know how to trade it. The volatility in this market can be fantastic!

Quote from nakachalet:

oh well....

if you guess going long would be better, you are right.

i went long and now the pix looked like this.... see attached.

cornix · Jul 6, 2011

Quote from the1:

The market is more random than traders think and less random than academia thinks. What percentage of the market movement can be explained by randomness? Who knows but even a known random time series forms patterns and trends.

Those are bad traders who "think".

We should not think, we should see and know when there is a certain probability of a certain action of the market and act accordingly.

When there's none, the market seems random to us but may at the same time look like a proven pattern to other traders.

It's all the matter of information we possess about market conditions and actions.

cornix · Jul 6, 2011

Quote from nakachalet:

excuse me, i am wrong again, there is still no red candlestick in sight, to warn me to get out.... need to run my kids to school, so long everyone. have an enchanting evening fellow traders and also good morning traders in asia....

OMG, is that Woodie's CCI i see on the bottom of your chart?

logic_man · Jul 6, 2011

Quote from cornixforex:

Those are bad traders who "think".

We should not think, we should see and know when there is a certain probability of a certain action of the market and act accordingly.

When there's none, the market seems random to us but may at the same time look like a proven pattern to other traders.

It's all the matter of information we possess about market conditions and actions.

For all I know, the market action which leads to my setup and the timing of the setup actually triggering could be random, but I know with as much certainty as one can know something about the market that what follows the triggering of the setup is not random. My actual hypothesis is that the setup actually works down at lower timeframes as well, which would mean they also are not random, but isn't actionable on them, at least not in any way that I want to pursue.

cornix · Jul 6, 2011

Quote from logic_man:

For all I know, the market action which leads to my setup and the timing of the setup actually triggering could be random, but I know with as much certainty as one can know something about the market that what follows the triggering of the setup is not random. My actual hypothesis is that the setup actually works down at lower timeframes as well, which would mean they also are not random, but isn't actionable on them, at least not in any way that I want to pursue.

If you trade your setup, that means that it has an edge and thus is not just a random bet, right?

logic_man · Jul 7, 2011

Quote from cornixforex:

If you trade your setup, that means that it has an edge and thus is not just a random bet, right?

Yes, the results are better than random, but my experience has been that I can't possibly predict the timing of the setup nor it's being triggered, though. Not that doing so would matter, because even if I could predict it, I would still have to observe a specific sequence of events to take action, because it's more important to react than predict.

cornix · Jul 7, 2011

Quote from logic_man:

Yes, the results are better than random, but my experience has been that I can't possibly predict the timing of the setup nor it's being triggered, though. Not that doing so would matter, because even if I could predict it, I would still have to observe a specific sequence of events to take action, because it's more important to react than predict.

Right, we cannot predict what the market exactly will do, but we can know odds of it doing something in the case our setup occurs.

And that is the reason we take those setups: because when we see them, we know odds are not random, but are shifted in our favor.

emg · Jul 7, 2011

Quote from nakachalet:

the time is 18:35 est, usa; and good morning fellow traders in asia;

the end is near, red is going to show up soon, according to my charts and all....

thx and good evening everyone.... trailing stop is automatically preset.... there would be no emotion high or low.... to get in the way of when or when, should i go flat.... it is all in our stats and it is all clearly spelled out in our trading plans.... long before this trade develops and shows up on the screen.... enjoy everyone....

you should post this on your wall:

More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!

cornix · Jul 7, 2011

Quote from emg:

you should post this on your wall:

More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!

More than 90% of janitors do not fail, they do their job OK and are paid regular salary.

But is that decent career?

emg · Jul 7, 2011

Quote from cornixforex:

More than 90% of janitors do not fail, they do their job OK and are paid regular salary.

But is that decent career?

Mcjobs get paid more than those 90% of small traders lose. Even a homeless man begging for money gets paid more than those 90% of losers.

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