No. And as you may recall, in an earlier exchange in another thread, I noted that Peter Brandt wrote at the end of his book that he would have to possibly reconsider the use of diagonal lines in his TA since they didn't serve him very well in the exercise. Since you know him, do you know what he has decided and if he still uses them? I'm curious to know.
Trading Wisdom for Aspiring Hedge Fund Managers
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soon you will understand the futility of trend and TA in your trade decisions.
good to see this progress.
I don't know what he's decided, but I do know he has never much liked diagonal lines. That doesn't mean he is changing his overall approach. Or if he is we haven't discussed it.
Hahaha - what an amazingly arrogant statement. This is like Jim Rogers in MW saying "technicians never get rich" because he never met a Marty Schwartz.
The way we use TA and trends is similar to the way Kovner described it - as a form of diagnostic input. Not using charts would be like a doctor choosing not to take a patient's temperature. It's a form of input and a helpful heuristic sorting tool.
I find many of the modern day criticisms of technical analysis to be either amusing, foundationally misguided, hubris-based (an attempt to present one's self as "above"), or some combination of all the above.
It is one thing to make no use of TA in one's methodology - there are plenty of paths up the mountain, and if one does not use charts then all well and good.
But to assume that TA is "invalid" or "degraded" in some universal type way that invalidates its use for all others... well, that is just an obtuse narrow-minded assumption limited by a lack of imagination as to 1) the ways that chart input can be used and 2) the many different forms of legitimate input that a methodology can synthesize.
Worse still, the assumption that TA is invalid / does not work is often based on falsehoods and erroneous starting assumptions about how an intelligent trader uses a chart in the first place. To quote Kovner:
There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
The above has always been true, despite some views to the contrary.
Trading Wisdom 39: A Failure of Imagination
"First of all there was the old assumption that [my heist] was done by "thieves" rather than one man acting alone. Then there was the contention that there was no way the security systems could possibly have been working correctly, because nothing human would have been able to get past there.
"I used to feel a little flattered by stuff like that. Upon further reflection, though, I decided that maybe admiring comments on my thieving skills were well-disguised criticisms of lapses in law enforcement's detecting skills.
"Former astronaut and Eastern Airlines CEO Frank Borman coined an incredibly apt phrase in 1967. Testifying before a House committee investigating the deaths of three astronauts during a ground test, Borman attributed the disaster to "a failure of imagination." He said that the engineering team had been unable to envision such an occurrence in the first place, and therefore were completely unprepared to prevent it or deal with it when it actually happened.
"Similarly, I eventually came to realize that when a detective or security expert used a flattering phrase like "superhuman" in connection with one of my scores, what he was really doing was covering up his own failure of imagination. If he couldn't figure out how I'd pulled off the heist, he retreated behind the excuse that the thief must have been a "human fly" or "the best there ever was." What other explanation could there possibly be, other than that the detective wasn't clever enough to figure it out, which is not something a law enforcement professional is anxious to admit."
- Bill Mason, Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief
JS Comment:
There is an element of mysticism and otherworldliness surrounding great traders. "Oh, so and so is superhuman... such and such has a gift from the gods."
To what degree is this a cop-out -- because if someone is a freak of nature or blessed by the gods, you don't have to compare your results to theirs -- and to what degree is it a failure of imagination?
An alternative manifestation of failed imagination is the assumption that something can't be done (even if it has already been done repeatedly)... the hand-waving denial of an approach one has never tried, or the path one has never walked, based on egregiously ill-informed assumptions.
Can these failings be countered by cultivating 1. a more fertile imagination, 2. a better knowledge base (as to what has been legitimately documented) and 3. a more open mind?
Buy Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief on Amazon
Get Trading Wisdom via e-mail
"First of all there was the old assumption that [my heist] was done by "thieves" rather than one man acting alone. Then there was the contention that there was no way the security systems could possibly have been working correctly, because nothing human would have been able to get past there.
"I used to feel a little flattered by stuff like that. Upon further reflection, though, I decided that maybe admiring comments on my thieving skills were well-disguised criticisms of lapses in law enforcement's detecting skills.
"Former astronaut and Eastern Airlines CEO Frank Borman coined an incredibly apt phrase in 1967. Testifying before a House committee investigating the deaths of three astronauts during a ground test, Borman attributed the disaster to "a failure of imagination." He said that the engineering team had been unable to envision such an occurrence in the first place, and therefore were completely unprepared to prevent it or deal with it when it actually happened.
"Similarly, I eventually came to realize that when a detective or security expert used a flattering phrase like "superhuman" in connection with one of my scores, what he was really doing was covering up his own failure of imagination. If he couldn't figure out how I'd pulled off the heist, he retreated behind the excuse that the thief must have been a "human fly" or "the best there ever was." What other explanation could there possibly be, other than that the detective wasn't clever enough to figure it out, which is not something a law enforcement professional is anxious to admit."
- Bill Mason, Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief
JS Comment:
There is an element of mysticism and otherworldliness surrounding great traders. "Oh, so and so is superhuman... such and such has a gift from the gods."
To what degree is this a cop-out -- because if someone is a freak of nature or blessed by the gods, you don't have to compare your results to theirs -- and to what degree is it a failure of imagination?
An alternative manifestation of failed imagination is the assumption that something can't be done (even if it has already been done repeatedly)... the hand-waving denial of an approach one has never tried, or the path one has never walked, based on egregiously ill-informed assumptions.
Can these failings be countered by cultivating 1. a more fertile imagination, 2. a better knowledge base (as to what has been legitimately documented) and 3. a more open mind?
Buy Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief on Amazon
Get Trading Wisdom via e-mail
Quote from darkhorse:
Trading Wisdom 39: A Failure of Imagination
"First of all there was the old assumption that [my heist] was done by "thieves" rather than one man acting alone. Then there was the contention that there was no way the security systems could possibly have been working correctly, because nothing human would have been able to get past there.
"I used to feel a little flattered by stuff like that. Upon further reflection, though, I decided that maybe admiring comments on my thieving skills were well-disguised criticisms of lapses in law enforcement's detecting skills.
"Former astronaut and Eastern Airlines CEO Frank Borman coined an incredibly apt phrase in 1967. Testifying before a House committee investigating the deaths of three astronauts during a ground test, Borman attributed the disaster to "a failure of imagination." He said that the engineering team had been unable to envision such an occurrence in the first place, and therefore were completely unprepared to prevent it or deal with it when it actually happened.
"Similarly, I eventually came to realize that when a detective or security expert used a flattering phrase like "superhuman" in connection with one of my scores, what he was really doing was covering up his own failure of imagination. If he couldn't figure out how I'd pulled off the heist, he retreated behind the excuse that the thief must have been a "human fly" or "the best there ever was." What other explanation could there possibly be, other than that the detective wasn't clever enough to figure it out, which is not something a law enforcement professional is anxious to admit."
- Bill Mason, Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief
JS Comment:
There is an element of mysticism and otherworldliness surrounding great traders. "Oh, so and so is superhuman... such and such has a gift from the gods."
To what degree is this a cop-out -- because if someone is a freak of nature or blessed by the gods, you don't have to compare your results to theirs -- and to what degree is it a failure of imagination?
An alternative manifestation of failed imagination is the assumption that something can't be done (even if it has already been done repeatedly)... the hand-waving denial of an approach one has never tried, or the path one has never walked, based on egregiously ill-informed assumptions.
Can these failings be countered by cultivating 1. a more fertile imagination, 2. a better knowledge base (as to what has been legitimately documented) and 3. a more open mind?
Buy Confessions of a Master Jewel Thief on Amazon
Get Trading Wisdom via e-mail
Here in this thread you proved you couldn't do anyone of the three. You were calling me FOS when a beginner I mentored did what he did.
Hey, I'm FOS, the beginner is really making money and you are perfectly correct naming names in your opinion.
You also put me on ignore.
The method was summarized here in September 2004 on the 25th.
Here's another great one of the same ilk.
A bunch of guys at the SEC have reached an agreement about withdrawing a lot of citations for "insider trading". They pop up with the following wisdom: "this guy can't know that many people."
The same is true for my beginner who you calculated started off at about 1000% ROI.
Just becasue a person uses parasitic, technical, psychological frontruning of smart money that gives the same profile as "insider trading" doesn't mean the methods are interchangeable on computer monitoring with poor software programming.
The first rule of being a jewel thief is: go to where the jewels are.
the same applies to trading. frontrun smart money with a few rules. Is this from a person who is FOS by your judgement? Yes. of course it is.
Who in the market protects their capital? NO ONE does. The offer is there all the time.
The beginner did 62 trades in his first quarter. He did frontrunning in a Universe where everyone looks alike.
1000% a year is just 4% a day.
So read THE document. 22JUN06. " Putting the Pieces Together" A hot list is used from a Universe. All trades are called and noted. 30 some snagits as it happened. 76 transcribed pages using five rules from the middle of a "one pager".
Obviously it is okay to call me names. People are devoted to it.
A few times I was called a jewel thief. I told the officials to get off it and they became very very silence with their stupid fucking accusations. The Moderators are fucking up on ET as usual. My name is being made into mud.
If anyone sees my name on something as the author, then behave.
A bunch of guys at the SEC have reached an agreement about withdrawing a lot of citations for "insider trading". They pop up with the following wisdom: "this guy can't know that many people."
The same is true for my beginner who you calculated started off at about 1000% ROI.
Just becasue a person uses parasitic, technical, psychological frontruning of smart money that gives the same profile as "insider trading" doesn't mean the methods are interchangeable on computer monitoring with poor software programming.
The first rule of being a jewel thief is: go to where the jewels are.
the same applies to trading. frontrun smart money with a few rules. Is this from a person who is FOS by your judgement? Yes. of course it is.
Who in the market protects their capital? NO ONE does. The offer is there all the time.
The beginner did 62 trades in his first quarter. He did frontrunning in a Universe where everyone looks alike.
1000% a year is just 4% a day.
So read THE document. 22JUN06. " Putting the Pieces Together" A hot list is used from a Universe. All trades are called and noted. 30 some snagits as it happened. 76 transcribed pages using five rules from the middle of a "one pager".
Obviously it is okay to call me names. People are devoted to it.
A few times I was called a jewel thief. I told the officials to get off it and they became very very silence with their stupid fucking accusations. The Moderators are fucking up on ET as usual. My name is being made into mud.
If anyone sees my name on something as the author, then behave.
My thoughts on becoming successful in trading if you come from a non trading background: (by this I mean starting from the ground up).
I takes total dedication and being focused to the degree you need to be a bit of a loner / hermit / unsociable.
You either have the money so you can work this out full time - day and night without needing to be employed elsewhere or....
You work as an employee within a day or night job and in your spare time eat, live and breath trading designing and testing.
As for a social life / wife / girlfriend, forget it as these things become a distraction.
That's my experience.
Once 'you have made it' then brain needs to allow yourself to relax and have a life. I haven't quite reached this stage.
I takes total dedication and being focused to the degree you need to be a bit of a loner / hermit / unsociable.
You either have the money so you can work this out full time - day and night without needing to be employed elsewhere or....
You work as an employee within a day or night job and in your spare time eat, live and breath trading designing and testing.
As for a social life / wife / girlfriend, forget it as these things become a distraction.
That's my experience.
Once 'you have made it' then brain needs to allow yourself to relax and have a life. I haven't quite reached this stage.
Yep, agree with this in a general sense... the good news is you can find camaraderie and make the journey with others who share your intense commitment. But if those relationships are not available, a degree of separation (from civilian perspective of family, friends etc) is required.
A great, great book that touches on the above is "How to Get Rich" by Felix Dennis. Awful title, brilliant and insightful material from a guy who built a $400mm fortune from nothing and knows exactly what he is talking about. Plus an excellent writer and very funny. Maybe I'll put ol' Felix into the mix here...
Do yourself a favor.
Relax for a minute.
Starting out takes 15 to 20 minutes a day and a very simple rule set.
You have just had an very unfortunate experience getting involved via "truisms" of the CW.
There was an alternative. It isw the route takn by NON-wizards who are very successful amateurs or amateurs who went pro as trader support people.
If you could just relax for a couple of weeks, you may be able to rid yourself of your present process of learning repeted failure.
Willaim J. O'Neill did not start the way you are but he did make a record of how to start and really be great.
He spent 27 months building 500 bucks into his career starting capital. And he chose to publish a replacement, so to speak, for the WSJ from the West coast.
He wrote a book for the caual observer of markets. It was NOT written for a HYPED person.
"How to Make Money in Stocks" could be the cure for your approaching dilemma which is putting you where you tell us you wound up.
I suggested to DH that he take a moment to include William J O'Neill and his orientation for getting rich effectively and efficiently.
This paperback is written for an ignorant person who is curious enough to get hooked by the title.
It takes an average person about no time to read it. you haven't read it and I know this because of your posted present attitude and intensity. So I feel sorry for you and your new friend.
O'Neill is a followup guy. "24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success" was written later. It was a follow up of an IBD series entitled "26 Weeks to Investment Success". "24" is thinner than "HTMMIS".
Dark Horse calculated how fast my beginners start off: 1000% a year. They dig O'Neill because they have the books and ask Q's about the contents.
On page 173 of "24" you can read O'neill's bio. In just over half a page (something like the length of one of DH's insipid quotes) you read how O'Neil got a 20 fold increase in capital in 27 months.
So read the books. Make it a rules to spend 15 to 20 minutes a day setting up your porfolio for the day and take enough out of the market every week to keep yourself amused and well travelled.
When you get well off, teach someone to handle your accounts. That's what my brother did for my father to do for my Mother. My mother got confused about how many bank accounts that were "full" (meaning insured to the hilt) could be kept in one bank. She wanted to know specifically where to put the surpluses being swept from her manged trading accounts.
Would it be possible to teach one of your siblings? then could he/she teach your dad? Then could your dad teach his broker to do trading as your dad daos? then when your dad dies would your sibling be able to keep your Mon advised? Or could you learn to trade soon?
Sounds interesting, thanks I'll buy this.
I've done plenty of relaxing, I know enough about relaxing but it never made me much money. There is a time for work and a time for play but I'm not sure both can be accomplished at the same time.
My repeated failure, what failure is this? If you think trading failure I'd suggest you think again.
I have read the book How to Make Money in Stocks, I have read numerous trading books, and all the trading classics I'm aware of.
However saying that, my trading methodology is not something found in books, it's found in the maths class room and school of hard knocks.
Anyhow, thank you all for your contributions to this thread.
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