Trading will be dead in next 10-20 years

Trading will be dead in next 10-20 years

If history is any indication, the misuse, lack of use, quality etc. of AI may result in it not being what many envision, such as the following proved to be:

Segway: people would never need to walk again
microwave ovens: no need to cook again
condoms: no more surprises 3 months later
Propecia: no more bald guys
alarm clocks: nobody will oversleep
Listerine: nobody will have bad breath
Diet Coke: no more fat people
mega doses of vitamin C: no more colds
makeup: no more ugly women
plastic surgery: no more ugly men or women
traffic lights: no more accidents
soap: everybody will wash their hands after a crap
deodorant: no more smelly people
and last but not least,
ET: where traders can conclude if TA works or not


 
trade5656 said:
With the rise of the AI come the end to trading as we know it and retail traders

Ai is becoming so strong/powerful/cheap with time that it will eventually replace 99% of traders, the amount of info you can absorb in a month AI will be able to absorb in 1/10 of a seconds, it will structure it, use complex algorithms to analyze it and make decisions

And I am not talking about AI outsmarting everybody - that's not the problem.

Here is the case - trading game can only be profitable if there are A LOT of losers. With the rise of Ai and it's availability all the losers will get access to all those computing powers and will make WAY LESS mistakes, and THAT is what kills the whole trading game.

In theory in you give a program which will give decent trading advices to losers today (and with exponential growth of computing power and AI such things will be available in 10-20 years easily) than the game is dead, 99% of stupid noobies mistakes are eliminated and that is exactly what profitable traderss feed on, money have to come from somebody.


That already happened to online poker actually. In 2006-2009 (which is considered "golden era" in online poker) without actually no decent learning info for poker and any software to help noobies, pros were making RIDICULOUS amounts of money exploiting this. But right now there are a lot of software and charts the edge that pros have over amateurs is SO SMALL that it's not even worth playing poker for living.

For example in 2006 you could spent 1 week to learn some basics of poker and get some charts and you will be able to make 20k a month just by grinding basic SNG tournaments. What can the same player grinding same tournaments expect now? 500$ a month.

Even more, right now is going a huge challenge AI vs pro players. 4 of the BEST in the world heads up players vs AI. How is it going? AI IS CRUSHING THEM. AI is crushing THE BEST players in the world in heads up poker LIKE KIDS. Literally, his edge is SO BIG that it is really scary. (you can google about that challenge it is going right now)

So we are ALREADY at the point where the best of the best can't beat Ai in poker, they can't even breakeven against him and they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to that, they are crashed. They gather everyday, analyze the way AI plays, try to find weaknesses and improve their game but that doesn't help, they continue to lose.


Trading is next. That will happen eventually to the trading world too, we can argue how long it will take but it WILL happen, there will be time in next decade or two when there is just no room for retail traders anymore, the edge will get smaller and smaller and then it will be just not worth it, just like in the poker example.

If you are considering to START trading now I really advice you to think about the future of that "profession" because that future is not very bright imo.
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Online poker is a scam, always has been. The software is manipulated. Why wouldn't it be? People still have the choice to play live.
 
motif said:
Online poker is a scam, always has been. The software is manipulated. Why wouldn't it be? People still have the choice to play live.
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I've been playing poker online for living for over 8 years, software is not manipulated, you don't know what you are talking about.
 
trade5656 said:
With the rise of the AI come the end to trading as we know it and retail traders

Ai is becoming so strong/powerful/cheap with time that it will eventually replace 99% of traders, the amount of info you can absorb in a month AI will be able to absorb in 1/10 of a seconds, it will structure it, use complex algorithms to analyze it and make decisions

And I am not talking about AI outsmarting everybody - that's not the problem.

Here is the case - trading game can only be profitable if there are A LOT of losers. With the rise of Ai and it's availability all the losers will get access to all those computing powers and will make WAY LESS mistakes, and THAT is what kills the whole trading game.

In theory in you give a program which will give decent trading advices to losers today (and with exponential growth of computing power and AI such things will be available in 10-20 years easily) than the game is dead, 99% of stupid noobies mistakes are eliminated and that is exactly what profitable traderss feed on, money have to come from somebody.


That already happened to online poker actually. In 2006-2009 (which is considered "golden era" in online poker) without actually no decent learning info for poker and any software to help noobies, pros were making RIDICULOUS amounts of money exploiting this. But right now there are a lot of software and charts the edge that pros have over amateurs is SO SMALL that it's not even worth playing poker for living.

For example in 2006 you could spent 1 week to learn some basics of poker and get some charts and you will be able to make 20k a month just by grinding basic SNG tournaments. What can the same player grinding same tournaments expect now? 500$ a month.

Even more, right now is going a huge challenge AI vs pro players. 4 of the BEST in the world heads up players vs AI. How is it going? AI IS CRUSHING THEM. AI is crushing THE BEST players in the world in heads up poker LIKE KIDS. Literally, his edge is SO BIG that it is really scary. (you can google about that challenge it is going right now)

So we are ALREADY at the point where the best of the best can't beat Ai in poker, they can't even breakeven against him and they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to that, they are crashed. They gather everyday, analyze the way AI plays, try to find weaknesses and improve their game but that doesn't help, they continue to lose.


Trading is next. That will happen eventually to the trading world too, we can argue how long it will take but it WILL happen, there will be time in next decade or two when there is just no room for retail traders anymore, the edge will get smaller and smaller and then it will be just not worth it, just like in the poker example.

If you are considering to START trading now I really advice you to think about the future of that "profession" because that future is not very bright imo.[/QUO
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trade5656 said:
I've been playing poker online for living for over 8 years, software is not manipulated, you don't know what you are talking about.
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And what do you have to show for it? A couple of freeroll championships?
 
Money Trust said:
Not only that, HUMANS design these technological systems, so it stands to reason that the computers are just doing what their human masters tell them to do. Which means that they're still making human decisions. Stated another way, AI is just automated human behavior.
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Money Trust,

It's automated systems produce by humans without the day to day trading undisciplined mistakes. What the OP is stating is the trading game because more challenging with less human error.
 
trade5656 said:
I've been playing poker online for living for over 8 years, software is not manipulated, you don't know what you are talking about.
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Are you colluding on a table with other online friends? You never mentioned if you are or are not. Because that is the only edge you can have in online poker.
 
Overnight said:
Are you colluding on a table with other online friends? You never mentioned if you are or are not. Because that is the only edge you can have in online poker.
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so you say you can't have an edge in heads up poker, right? you are smart
 
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