trading volatility

[Wheezooo]

"A guy on futures.io recounted how, on his first day on the phone as the only trader for his firm (the one experienced guy they had took off on vacation - 'cause nobody could tell him "no" - and gave him minimal to no training), the other traders smelled blood in the water and were yelling orders at him as fast as they could, with max jargon thrown in. He literally shit his pants from the stress. Fortunately, one of the kinder people in the business went over and gave him a few clues that helped him survive that first day. After that... pretty much nothing phased this guy again."

Honestly, I know we didn't get off on the best foot, so don't think I am saying this to be confrontational, but there is so much wrong with that story, as told, it is hard to know where to begin — I'd seek clarification, but I'd say it goes beyond artistic license and borders the realm of complete bullshit.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Honestly, I know we didn't get off on the best foot, so don't think I am saying this to be confrontational, but there is so much wrong with that story, as told, it is hard to know where to begin — I'd seek clarification, but I'd say it goes beyond artistic license and borders the realm of complete bullshit.

@Wheezooo, I don't think you're being confrontational at all; the story would normally smack of excessive drama to me, and trigger question marks of all sorts (all right, I can be a bit of a cynical bastard; so sue me). But "wldman" is one of the more respected members on futures.io, has been around for quite a while, and seems to be well known by others who implicitly vouch for his reputation... so I don't know. Again, his story is not too far off the "initiation" pattern I'm familiar with in other "perform-or-die" environments; if, back in my MI days, I had been asked by my S-3 to project a reliability score for it based on available data, I'd give it a 4/10. Feel free to check it out yourself if it's of interest.

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/...ality-trading-profitability-2.html#post719630

(Oh, and - maybe "getting off on the wrong foot" isn't all that useful of a take; I bear zero animus toward you, and in fact think you're a pretty sharp guy whose advice helped me once I was able to filter it down to my terms - thanks much for it. I've got no problem letting whatever bygones be bygones. Peace, brother.)

 

[Wheezooo]

"Feel free to check it out yourself if it's of interest.

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/...ality-trading-profitability-2.html#post719630"

Thanks for the link. Reading the unabridged version of the story, it sounds legit. The first month of my career was the worst month of my life. I went from academic superstar to moron in a day. I never felt so overwhelmed in my life. It didn’t help that my first day of work the market was limit up for the Xth straight day in a row, and I was clerking for the highest volume traders in that complex. The simplest menial tasks - I failed at every one of them. The yelling and abuse that came along with it was incomprehensible. Much of it from traders who didn't even work for the same firm as me. I am amazed I made it through the first week. Had it not been my dream to be a trader, I would have quit. The following months got better, but not by much. Had my ability to reconcile complex positions not been better than everyone else's (I have no reason why they were, they just were), I am certain I would have been fired.

Oddly, the first day I ever got to trade, contrary to most people whose hands are shaking and who nearly piss themselves, I took to it like a fish to water. I put on a performance that had most of the traders in the pit asking me to calm down, and telling me I’d last a week if I didn’t. I never calmed down. To this day, knowing 100 times more than I did then, I would be horrified if I had to trade against my 24 year old self. He would have eaten me alive, spit me out, pissed on the remains, and laughed all the while.

"I've got no problem letting whatever bygones be bygones." - I've had physical altercations with people that an hour later I was out having drinks with. This was fairly common to see on the floor.

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Thanks for the link. Reading the unabridged version of the story, it sounds legit. The first month of my career was the worst month of my life. I went from academic superstar to moron in a day.

One of the main things that I've actually enjoyed about this world is that exact effect (weird, I know.) My shameful, dirty little secret has always been that most things come easily to me; I've always felt like I'm cheating at life, especially when I watch other people struggle with it. This has been shockingly hard - although that may simply be a) that I had absolutely zero clue about anything financial a year ago, and b) my expectations of my own performance and how hard I've been driving myself to learn, with the additional spur that I find this more compelling and a better fit for my personality than almost anything else I've ever run across.

Oddly, the first day I ever got to trade, contrary to most people whose hands are shaking and who nearly piss themselves, I took to it like a fish to water. I put on a performance that had most of the traders in the pit asking me to calm down, and telling me I’d last a week if I didn’t. I never calmed down. To this day, knowing 100 times more than I did then, I would be horrified if I had to trade against my 24 year old self. He would have eaten me alive, spit me out, pissed on the remains, and laughed all the while.

Wow. It would have been fascinating to see that much concentrated fire... always bearing in mind what happens when you stand too close to one.

I don't much do regrets; they just make life suck for zero positive return. But I do feel a bit wistful for my younger self, who (physically) spent a lot of time around Wall Street in the early 90s but never even imagined that he could be part of that absolutely fascinating world. My life has been pretty damn awesome overall - again, it's as if I've always had cheat codes for much of it, or have been lucky beyond reason - but... as harsh as the many descriptions I've heard of it are, I'd have paid the toll gladly. Trading gives me a direct grip on things - of which money is one of the smaller parts - that I realize, more and more as time passes, I've deeply wanted for a long time.

(I don't think I'm idealizing it; I've got enough broad life experience, and plenty of rational cynicism, to gauge it fairly well. Large financial losses are not exactly fun. But they're not exclusive to trading - risk is an inevitable part of life - and I consider the risk profile of an active one to be infinitely better than cowering in some sort of imaginary "safety", which does not exist. Nor is a financial crash any sort of an ultimate catastrophe; with my broad variety of skill sets, I know I can always make money and start again.)

"I've got no problem letting whatever bygones be bygones." - I've had physical altercations with people that an hour later I was out having drinks with. This was fairly common to see on the floor.

My introduction to my first, and for a long time best, friend in this country was via that rather direct method. Two minutes after we got into a scratch basketball game, he and I were pounding the hell out of each other - and separated, both bleeding, with a bit of respect for each other's fighting skills. A couple of minutes later, we told everybody else to fuck off with their advice and side-taking, and walked off together. His mom shook her finger at us, patched us up, and rolled a joint that we could share. Hollywood in the 70s was an... interesting experience for an immigrant kid who spoke about ->yay<- much English.

Damn, but I sure do miss Aaron. Wonder where he is these days.

 

[kv1289]

The term structure doesn't shift (1 for 1), it twists (1,.80,.65,.52....etc) between backwardation, flat, and contango. So you can be -1000 vega mo 2 and long 1550 vega mo 4 = net long 550 vol) but if vol moves, your p+l will probably be close to flat.

Now it can shift at times, but never on a big vol move, and that's all you really need to care about. Little moves are just noise and coin flips. Over time, at high volumes, who cares.

Is this concept true for skew as well?

If you put on a 1x1 25D/15D vertical spread are you closer to weighted skew neutral despite the notional vega difference?

 

[Wheezooo]

"Is this concept true for skew as well?"

If it is in the same month, as per your example, then no.
If it is in different months, it would be conceptually applicable, but trickier.

 

[destriero]

I was thinking of debit calendar spread - sell front month and buy back month. If I did this with both calls and puts at same strike, what would this creature be called - iron calendar fly? If it doesn't have a name, I am going to call it iron bat!

View attachment 208348

Don't.

You're simply doubling exposures.

 

[destriero]

This is essentially a double calendar, although normally a double cal would be done with Puts and Calls at different strikes, and both OTM. Eg, if SPX is at 2930, then the Put cal would be at a strike say 2900, and the Call cal would be at something like 2960. This gives a nice wide-ish profit 'tent' with a dip in the middle.

Dump Truck, same strike calendars are arb-equivalent. So the correct term is calendar. Whether call or put is meaningless. Lol.

 

[ffs1001]

Dump Truck, same strike calendars are arb-equivalent. So the correct term is calendar. Whether call or out is meaningless. Lol.

How sad of you to nit-pick on a meaningless technicality from a post thats 3 years old.

Everyone knows same strike cals are equivalent.

Get a life dude!

 

[destriero]

How sad of you to nit-pick on a meaningless technicality from a post thats 3 years old.

Everyone knows same strike cals are equivalent.

Get a life dude!

lol you said it was a double calendar. You may know it now, but unlikely. lulz double calendar.