trading VEGA

Basically if you trade longer term vega (which I wasn't doing) you shouldn't consider yourself too much with historical or implied vol, it's future vol you are interested in, the only reasonable thing you can say is that in the long term vol is mean reversing, but if this helps you in trading vol is a totally other mather ...
 
Quote from cvds16:

Basically if you trade longer term vega (which I wasn't doing) you shouldn't consider yourself too much with historical or implied vol, it's future vol you are interested in, the only reasonable thing you can say is that in the long term vol is mean reversing, but if this helps you in trading vol is a totally other mather ...
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thank you for a good answer. Shall research further.
 
Predicting future vol is the most difficult thing, those that know probably won't tell, those that tell are probably only guessing ...
 
Quote from cvds16:

Predicting future vol is the most difficult thing, those that know probably won't tell, those that tell are probably only guessing ...
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you want say that the attamp to build system for analisis the IV will not bring the result?
 
if you can really predict vol you can make a fortune trading vol futures, however few can do this ... so yes I doubt it
 
Quote from cvds16:

if you can really predict vol you can make a fortune trading vol futures, however few can do this ... so yes I doubt it
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it's no secret that when IV change on 1% the price of option can change from 2 to 4 %. How i can extract the profit from this without math indicator of IV?
 
Quote from jenek-cowboy:

it's no secret that when IV change on 1% the price of option can change from 2 to 4 %. How i can extract the profit from this without math indicator of IV?
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sorry but this is not an english sentence, I don't really understand what you mean, if you want an answer you have to rephrase your sentence.

If implied vol changes by 1 point vega indicates the change in price of the option(-portfolio), not in percentage but in real dollars.
 
Quote from cvds16:

sorry but this is not an english sentence, I don't really understand what you mean, if you want an answer you have to rephrase your sentence.

If implied vol changes by 1 point vega indicates the change in price of the option(-portfolio), not in percentage but in real dollars.
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certainly you right. SORRY
For example.
For option on GAZPROM.
IV -25.
PRICE-3000
if IV is changed on 26 then the price is changed to 3060-3090.
and we see in this get prettier possibility for trading.But we don't the method for measure the IV.
 
you need an options model, it's possible to calculate (or more precisely let the computer) calculate your IV through the model.
 
Quote from cvds16:

you need an options model, it's possible to calculate (or more precisely let the computer) calculate your IV through the model.
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What you mean when you say "option model"?
 
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