Trading using with candlesticks only and nothing else

[longandshort]

not my journal. and I think one of the chat members made it, as the actual trader no long journals.

google drive link

This is a small sample and I can’t see how he’s calculating his data. This is also where you need to think intelligently about the impact of outliers. He can have 3-5 trades that win him the bulk of his returns and push his return multiple higher — that is not indicative of skill. You can replicate this in a bull market with random order entries.

To measure skill you need to compare the returns against a benchmark. Look at all of his categories of trades and calculate the returns per. Find out the median returns. I’ll do the analysis in a bit after this workout lol

 

[spectastic]

This is a small sample and I can’t see how he’s calculating his data. This is also where you need to think intelligently about the impact of outliers. He can have 3-5 trades that win him the bulk of his returns and push his return multiple higher — that is not indicative of skill. You can replicate this in a bull market with random order entries.

To measure skill you need to compare the returns against a benchmark. Look at all of his categories of trades and calculate the returns per. Find out the median returns. I’ll do the analysis in a bit after this workout lol

he's been trading since 2011, with similar returns.

 

[longandshort]

he's been trading since 2011, with similar returns.

Just ran the numbers lol. The dude should stick to shorting, but still his pnl sucks.

Also:

 

[spectastic]

Just ran the numbers lol. The dude should stick to shorting, but still his pnl sucks.

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Also:
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not sure how you arrived at your numbers. here are my quick calculations using r multiples..

How can you extrapolate his performance relative to spx when you don't know his account size and average allocation? the % moves are that of the ticker, not his account.

 

[longandshort]

not sure how you arrived at your numbers. here are my quick calculations using r multiples..

View attachment 264127

How can you extrapolate his performance relative to spx when you don't know his account size and average allocation? the % moves are that of the ticker, not his account.

I ran the hypothetical assuming 10k per trade. This is a “naive” forecast — he would need to provide data on sizing for us to do more.

I only used closed trades to keep it simple.

I calculate the PnL on the trade, so the market value of the trade at entry and exit using the $10k hypothetical adjusted for unit size (rounded down to the nearest 1). I then averaged the PnL figures.

 

[spectastic]

his rule is any given trade, he'll risk 0.5-1.0% of his account, which is in the upper 8 figure range I think.

point is he grew it from 4-5 figures almost 10 years ago, so he's doing something right.

 

[longandshort]

his rule is any given trade, he'll risk 0.5-1.0% of his account, which is in the upper 8 figure range I think.

point is he grew it from 4-5 figures almost 10 years ago, so he's doing something right.

This is survivorship bias. If you could make money off technicals every hedge fund and bank trader would be doing it. Based upon my review, it didn't look that impressive.

If you want to continue believing that it's all you need then go for it. But I would recommend a different path if you actually want to be an elite (and profitable) trader.

 

[deaddog]

As a retail trader I can never compete with the institutions for research. They spend millions analysing all the data that is available. What they do with that information shows up on the charts.

Once I can see what the institutions are doing I can follow along. The only info I need is on the chart.

 

[spectastic]

This is survivorship bias. If you could make money off technicals every hedge fund and bank trader would be doing it. Based upon my review, it didn't look that impressive.

If you want to continue believing that it's all you need then go for it. But I would recommend a different path if you actually want to be an elite (and profitable) trader.

So only investment banks and hedge funds get to make money because they have the best strategies, and everyone else who's profitable is just on a lucky streak? If that is the case, why is aggregate hedge fund performance always below that of the spx?

 

[themickey]

Once I can see what the institutions are doing I can follow along.

How do you know what's institutions and what isn't?