When do they fail?
trading using moving averages
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
When do they fail?
Sure, but what time is that? Tea time? MAs have to work in real time, not when you are snuggled in your jammies with a cup of cocao.
Meaning what? You trying to diss me? If so, I don't need your crap.
They fail when they do. Study the history, you can figure it out.. Sometimes they are action points. Sometime they mean nothing. Understanding the diff is important.
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One more stupid-ass post like that directed towards me and you're going on my loooonnnnnng ignore list.
They do work in real time! Price interacts with a moving average in real time. It doesn't matter that a MA is derived from historic price.
please what.
we all know DOW fair value is 40000.... well, not 'all' lol, plenty people still not in, which is why it will get there... then why does it correct at all, why does it not go straight to 40000... simple, smart money won't carry dumb money to heaven... a straight line rise will attract too many speculators that will buy in and never see a draw down.
so it's my pro boy's delicate balance, between cleaning off the excess, vs. not allowing too many empty handed flats to buy back in.. earlier this year I predicted that this year volatility will be similar to mid 2018 with 5-8% corrections because the forexIG sentiment has been oscillating around 30/70 long short... and the same reason why it was a straight rise in 2017... because it was 10/90 almost all year.
there is no rhyme or reason in graphics, graphically 'extended' means what - absolutely nothing.... trading is very logical, and that's the only way you can get confidence..... need to know the players and their behavior... again all is explained in my 'trading is easy' thread.
But what's more is, if you use them to project current trends, and you can statistically show that they work, then "Good on ya!" and get on your way. And if your statistics show that the future is not so-well aligned with those lampposts of the past, then don't use them. But forget the mystery, voodoo, or religion: TEST. Then verify. Modify. Then construct a feedback loop to check your re-test. It's just numbers. They work, "they don't work/fail, they show what the formula spits out and that's it."
Oh, and for those adherents to so-called "Price Action" who eschew (nasty,
troublesome) "technical indicators" -- YOU ARE USING INDICATORS. 
You use one that is crafted to show four different market prices in one slice of time -- it goes by the name "Japanese Candlestick" and has a long, glorious history. And if you try working a market with an inappropriately-timed Japanese Candlestick? You will get raped.Oh! Oh! And, pay me $197.06, and I'll send you my super-distilled Genius Wisdom JAPANESE CANDLESTICK decoder phrase (three words long
) which will unlock Japanese Candlesticks, AND "Price Action" for you, forever. 
QUITE the bargain!!!
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I don't care about your emotions or if you put me on ignore. I don't want you to lose money, and using MAs the way you are is a losing course of action.