Trading today's jobs report... Your ideas?
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
Good results mean tapering, bad results mean no tapering. So regardless of the numbers price can go nowhere or anywhere
I was bullish and I like what I saw!!! Bad result so no tapering!! So I guess as long as nobody wants to work, there would be no tapering?
235k? BB was estimating between 400k and 1M jobs. It felt a bit like an earnings miss to me.
Just a hiccup along the way. SnP holding steady. Job growth was strong in recent previous reports, and most jobs are being added in hospitality.
Urban areas' slow recovery due to Δ fear, homelessness, and danger aren't helping. A lot of hospitality jobs are in the cities. Personally, I live near NYC, and have a healthy fear of going at this time. Few police and lots of vagrants mean that I have to watch my back with every step; going on the subway is especially uncomfortable.
Nothing really matters anymore. It may matter for an hour or two, but that's about it. The FOMC runs the show now. The literally control the entire market. Sure we may experience brief declines from time to time, that's just to make things appear normal.
Buy the stock indexes, and sit there. That's the best strategy right now. I can't speak for individual stocks. The public focuses on the indexes.
Buy the stock indexes, and sit there. That's the best strategy right now. I can't speak for individual stocks. The public focuses on the indexes.
To bad you have to live that way. Here in Texas we can carry firearms and protect our self and family. As of Sept 1, you know longer need a permit to carry in Texas. With whats going on in south Texas border, im glad folks can protect themself from ungrateful migrants.
There's several factors; I think that urban areas have a ways to go. In NYC:
1. A lot of police resigned
2. Funding for another estimated 1100 police jobs dried up, in part due to that "de-fund the police" movement.
3. The remaining police are extra-cautious, and reluctant to get involved, especially after the George Floyd incident.
4. Hotels used to house homeless in 2020 due to COVID, are pushing homeless out, and they're ending up on the streets
5. General financial pressure resulting from COVID. Lots of empty spaces.
6. Transportation is particularly uncomfortable, with homeless and vagrants living in train cars with shopping carts.
7. All this makes employers reluctant to force the "back-to-the-office" issue, and put their people in danger.
- Let's not forget that they also save big bucks on city leases. We're about 1.5 years into this mess, and leases are continually coming up for renewal.
- That means less professional workers in the cities to support hospitality positions.
Regarding carry permits; personally, I'm not a soldier, and probably wouldn't have it in me to actually pull the trigger. Taking the life of another is no small thing, even when threatened. Not only would it spawn massive legal issues, but would hang on my conscience. For me, it's best to just avoid the problems entirely, and stay out of the city until this whole thing blows over.
...I am definitely not alone in this thinking, and this is what I believe is affecting the jobs report. Bustling urban areas create many hospitality and other job opportunities. If the cities are undesirable, then all those jobs are lost.
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Methinks the key take-away is that there will be little policy change from Uncle Jerome and the FOMC on Sep 22nd. This, combined with the pending fiscal stimulus, means that the tsunami of new money flooding into the system continues:
- No tapering
- No rate increase
- More QE and money printing
- Status quo
- "Bull" market continues...
What inflation numbers will they be looking at? The July BLS numbers are getting a little stale:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
I don't think most people appreciate the sea change that has taken place at the Fed over the past few years. IMO, they will let inflation get way out of hand if containing it means more unemployment. Any rate hikes that lead to more workers, especially people of color, being unemployed will be met with cries of "inequality" or "inequity" from the rabid left and they know it. They're as political an animal as you will find in DC
Right now, Powell & Co are probably right that most of the inflation we see is transitory, but it's really not about the actual inflation, it's peoples expectations of inflation. And once that gets going, it is very hard to stop. The danger is they let this fester and then they get the worst of both situations...very high inflation that has to be contained with multiple rate hikes, leading to high unemployment. And then what? What "tools" do they have left? Same goes for fiscal policy. How many more trillions of debt can we sell the world?
Right now, Powell & Co are probably right that most of the inflation we see is transitory, but it's really not about the actual inflation, it's peoples expectations of inflation. And once that gets going, it is very hard to stop. The danger is they let this fester and then they get the worst of both situations...very high inflation that has to be contained with multiple rate hikes, leading to high unemployment. And then what? What "tools" do they have left? Same goes for fiscal policy. How many more trillions of debt can we sell the world?