Trading today's Fed.... the Powell reaction trade

[ktm]

Here's a speculative trade for those so inclined....

Around the announcement time, place a limit buy "some amount" below the current price... say, 10-ish points.... with a stop you can stomach.... just in case the initial thrash is negative. You may catch a downward spike fill... kind of the "shake-off before the take-off" sort of thing. (Of course you can do the opposite if you're playing for a negative statement.)

You usually don't get the opportunity to "wait and see how things appear to be panning out". The market will likely be "spiking and thrashing" even if the official FOMC statement is "unchanged".

FWIW...

That's one helluva call. Held til close I think someone could have made 100 points on the S&P with this.

Great call man!!!

 

[Overnight]

That's one helluva call. Held til close I think someone could have made 100 points on the S&P with this.

Great call man!!!

You should have seen the NQ action. 500+ points from trough to peak in 2 hours. Total nutso.

 

[fan27]

You are brave to trade UVXY. I just trade Nasdaq and Russell. Congrats on the profitable trades. Ignore haters. You will scale up over the years and in 5-6 years you'll be making 4-5K/day. I see glimpses of that myself but mostly between 2-3K. I will scale up more 2023.

He won't scale up.....has been trading the same small size for years by his own admission. I don't get it.

 

[KCalhoun]

He won't scale up.....has been trading the same small size for years by his own admission. I don't get it.

I trade thousands of shares many days, doing up to 80-100 roundtrips of 200-300 shares at a time. So I trade lots of size, incrementally.

I often have trades on that are 1100-1400 shares total, during a run that I've scaled in to.

Eg 200 shares at 15.2 + 200sh @15.4+300@15.55 + 200@15.7+300@15.85, sell all at 15.75 on pullback

I never trade >1000 shares out of the gate, too risky for my taste. I'd rather do dozens of 200-300 share trades, nibbling vs gulping.

 

[comagnum]

Trading MNQ long off the 2B with my thesis "since when does Powell take away the punch bowel ?" Left part of my position on, looking for another big leg up, maybe new highs? This time year is often lucrative for bulls.

 

[S2007S]

What a day,,...everyone is all giddy but don't fall for it,, may rally a bit more but thats about it...Futures all green tonight but don't fall for a continued rally. In a brief second everything will look like Tuesday all over again. Take profits wherever you can. I will be adding more short etfs in the days ahead as markets probably make new highs once again and the s&p goes for its 68th record high of 2021.

 

[verial]

What a day,,...everyone is all giddy but don't fall for it,, may rally a bit more but thats about it...Futures all green tonight but don't fall for a continued rally. In a brief second everything will look like Tuesday all over again. Take profits wherever you can. I will be adding more short etfs in the days ahead as markets probably make new highs once again and the s&p goes for its 68th record high of 2021.

The biggest problem now, from a technical standpoint, is that the SPY is likely to face some strong resistance levels as it attempts to push to a new high. This resistance to hitting new highs has been forming for roughly 30 days and is thus a huge hurdle for the SPY at the moment. Mid-term support remains bullish for the SPY, nonetheless.

 

[JSOP]

Vaccines' effectiveness results against the omicron variant is coming out soon. It's already been two weeks since they first discovered the variant. Is the market still going to be reacting to that or has the market completely forgotten about that and instead is focusing on Powell again?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I trade thousands of shares many days, doing up to 80-100 roundtrips of 200-300 shares at a time. So I trade lots of size, incrementally.

I often have trades on that are 1100-1400 shares total, during a run that I've scaled in to.

Eg 200 shares at 15.2 + 200sh @15.4+300@15.55 + 200@15.7+300@15.85, sell all at 15.75 on pullback

I never trade >1000 shares out of the gate, too risky for my taste. I'd rather do dozens of 200-300 share trades, nibbling vs gulping.

That's the way to go, but I think if you have a proven system, with known statistics, you should not be afraid to size up your initial quibbles + adds. That's how I am planning to do it.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Here's a speculative trade for those so inclined....

Around the announcement time, place a limit buy "some amount" below the current price... say, 10-ish points.... with a stop you can stomach.... just in case the initial thrash is negative. You may catch a downward spike fill... kind of the "shake-off before the take-off" sort of thing. (Of course you can do the opposite if you're playing for a negative statement.)

You usually don't get the opportunity to "wait and see how things appear to be panning out". The market will likely be "spiking and thrashing" even if the official FOMC statement is "unchanged".

FWIW...

Nicely done man. The market is so fucking dumb, it just relies on the central bank.