trading time-frame and certainty of a trend

[andrasnm]

If you know me from earlier, you perhaps know that I am a longer time-frame trader.
The theorem to co-relate trading time-frame with market trend goes like this: in sideways markets short term trading may make some sense. In down market or up market you will make chump change versus what you would have made if held on steady and just go with the trend. I made next to nothing in the up market pre-bubble times. and I was never trading inflated crap (like the
nasdaq) after the bubble I realized (after talking with some people who became millionaires during the bull market and sold out on the top) that short term trading can be expensive to your health and pocket book.
I am not trying to evangelize anyone but as long as you have some money and we have clear up or down trends - it is always time to make money.

 

[monee]

Have often thought of this ...
Its sort of a battle between looking for the smaller daily high probability gains vs the lower probability huge gain.
But for intraday your position size can be much larger due to not having the overnight risk.

I can empathize with large moves being missed.

Back in April I watched PPH break the $90 support and didn't take the short because I figured it was an expensive EFT and would tie up a lot of money for a small move.
Unbelievably its trading at $60 today.

Should have bought puts!

 

[dotslashfuture]

That is just letting winners run. Imagine if in the bubble years, you closed your losing trades as daytrades, but kept all your winners overnight. How much of a difference would that have made ?The same could be said for shorting over the past month or so.