Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

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As John Magee so wisely pointed out, one can prudently risk manage himself into bankruptcy. Which is one reason why the theoretical Profit Despite A Low Win Rate business doesn't work in application.
 
dbphoenix said:
I've mentioned "tells", largely because of the influence of Zen and the Art of Poker. But I didn't get into it in the pdf because they make little to no sense until one has spent time observing price behavior (why did it turn there?). And those who are just now looking at this will likely have no idea what I'm talking about. Such is life.

Moving on, if price is expected to fall and doesn't, that tells you something (which is why it's called a "tell"), mainly that the odds have shifted to sideways to up. This gives the trader a 1:2 chance of being right rather than 1:3.

Here, price formed a little bitty range from 54 to 58. But rather than continue the downmove that began early this morning at 78, it appears to be trying to move up. However, one will note that the 15m stride remains intact, and until that is broken, the odds for chop are greater than they will be when price takes an unmistakable direction.
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All of which is a prelude to saying that those of you who tried to short before it was time to short and got repeatedly stopped out should now possess a more intimate familiarity with "tells".
 
VPhantom said:
I like that trends are easier to identify on the daily, but because it requires more capital, it's an "after a year or two of growth" project for me. My money management is very conservative and I'd be lucky to grow my modest account by 50%/year under those conditions.

Down a notch, the hourly is very interesting, but I had a knack for getting slapped around by overnight gaps in stock positions, and Forex moves at inopportune hours for me, so I backed off the hourly for now.
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Excellent posting. You've hit the nail on the head about defining trend on daily and it's one of the items that the new traders need to understand better. While it's true that having a lot of capital is helpful, it's especially important to note that folks who don't, really should be trading the daily using 1x margin. This allows you to slog through drawdowns without having to stress out about losing the entire account. Again--excellent posting
 
fortydraws said:
IMO, once you have decided what type of trader you want to be and you have defined your edge and developed your plan, there is much more to be learned from books by and about pro gambling, imo, than books by and about trading.
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I can't for the life of me remember what book it was, but someone famous on the trading side referenced a book about horse race betting... Elder? Ahh, don't laugh! Jim Cramer: Picking Winners: A Horseplayer's Guide by Andrew Beyer. Have not read it, but your reference brought back this old memory for me from his Confessions of a Street Addict. It was influential to him in shaping his fundamental analysis and rigor.

We do also see our fair share of former professional poker players in these parts...

The skill set seems to be quite transferable.
 
As the chief purpose of this journal was to address trading the SLA/AMT intraday, but so few of those who are interested are actually trading this intraday, there's really no reason for this journal to remain open.

As there are nearly twenty journals that are focused on this approach, it makes more sense for me to post charts that are pertinent to the journals of those who are working this out for themselves, particularly those who are truly trading it intraday. Those who want to "follow" me are encouraged to click my name and select Follow when the popup window appears. You will then more easily find out where I am. I'm sure that those to whose journals I'll be posting charts will welcome sincere questions.
 
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