Trading The Plan

Puffy, Who is making money in a triangle? Almost no one. The bulls are worried, the bears are worried. Everybody is all anxious. But everybody stays with it because the bulls at least get higer lows, and the bears get lower highs.
Whenever I find myself asking, "Well now what do I do?" I am usually caught in one of these patterns. I usually answer myself with, "I don't know what I should do, but we are going to find out shortly."
 
Originally posted by gerry875


by the way - declining wedges (at least in downmarkets) are often followed by a breakout to the upside.

but i might be wrong
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Rats. In my original post, I meant to write descending triangle which is a bearish continuation pattern. The declining wedge (which is a different pattern) is a reversal pattern with a breakout to the upside as you said.

What the pattern I circled in my chart was, was a short bullish flag continuation pattern. However you can always draw a base on one of those things and make it look like a declining triangle which was the source of my confusion.

Its basically a favorite error of mine, to see reversal patterns or topping patterns in trending markets. I'm making a trading log of cases where I incorrectly identify such patterns and am getting better at avoiding them. When I encounter a brief counter trend move (like a bullish flag or a declining triangle) I like to imagine its going to act like a waterfall and go down alot. Of course brief counter trend moves like this HAVE to happen, to draw in bears for the next climb up. I'm getting a better sense of time and development. I know that three bars doesn't not a trend reversal make (usually).
 
the pattern here is nothing more than the security "walking off " a rather overbought condition through time rather than pulling back in price sharply. Notice that the 15 period cosolidation brought it back to the base of it"s uptrend line, right on schedule with it's higher lows
 
Looks like today has a strong chance to end up as an NR7 which would put us on breakout alert for tomorrow because of the volatility coil. As slow as things are today, they could be hoppin tomorrow if this coils up some more.

Brandon
 
Volatility is one of the most powerful market concepts, the major thing to remember is that it will revert to its mean, so periods of high volatility will be followed by low, low by high etc. There are several things you can look at to indicate the where the volatility situation is at such as Average Ranges, Narrow Ranges, Wide Ranges, intraday ADX's. Looking at the charts tonight the Nasdaq formed an NR7 while the DOW and SP both formed Inside Range Days. Intraday ADX values are all very low as well, this is all pointing to a coiling in volatility and tells us to look for a potential trend day tomorrow. With the hourly bullflag the most obvious direction for the trend day would be up, but it's important not to fall in love with anything. Let the hourly ranges establish themselves and trade the break, which ever way it goes.

Brandon
 
Pretty nice trend morning today. Once they snookered everyone in by (BARELY) taking out the two days highs it set off some nice shorts.

[09:00] {Brandon} 09:00:45 cst DAY TRADE: (Based on daily and intraday setups. Holding period = several minutes to several hours. Closed by end of day) SHORT SETUP Nasaq can be taken short under 1023. Stops above 1030.

Right now we are rounding off a bit, the noon counter move should start up. We have covered the short and are now flat waiting for a nice 5 to 15 minute bear flag to come about.


Brandon
 
Originally posted by DPSUTTS
Does anyone know if Keltner Bands and ADX are supported in the RealTick application?

Thanks in advance.
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Go to setup studies, upper and lower envelope. Set those with Average Range, then in the moving average study put a 20ema. This sets up basiclly a keltner channel. ADX is under average directional index.

Brandon
 
Thanks for your help Brandon.

I'm using the default average range of 2.00. Is this something I've got to play with until I find something that works?

Also does 20ema refer to an exponential moving average over 20 periods? Should I use mid-point or average?

Sooooo many questions.

Thanks again.
 
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