Trading the Pivots
- Thread starter JimmyJam
- Start date
stop your jibber jabber and come out of the closet, and no i aint talking about you being light in the loafers.
the shack
the shack
Well that sure worked out great...........
http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/09/12/ES_317_VB_14.png
Trend continues.
I wish I was still holding some of my LONG position from the ES opening bracket trade.
LOL!
One thing that has made me a lot of money by saving me a lot of money is the ability to recognize a trend day.
Trend days seem to have a few of the following characteristics:
1) They come after a few days of narrow ranges
2) The nq and er are outperforming the ym and es
3) The adv/dec is trending strongly in the direction of the indexes
4) Ticks only pull back to about the zero line and then move in the direction of the trend
When these four items are in "gear" it's best to take only pull-backs in the direction of the trend.
IF you want to try anti-trend moves, wait for the 2nd or 3rd level of S/R on the pivot numbers and use a 4 point stop for the ES's. You'll usually get at least a 2 point re-treat from these 2nd or 3rd level numbers, so that you may move your stop to break-even once you are positive by 2 points. If you don't get the retreat, you'll be risking 4 points. When you're correct, you'll make a lot more as you saw in Monday's action.
Hope this makes sense and is of help.
Trend days seem to have a few of the following characteristics:
1) They come after a few days of narrow ranges
2) The nq and er are outperforming the ym and es
3) The adv/dec is trending strongly in the direction of the indexes
4) Ticks only pull back to about the zero line and then move in the direction of the trend
When these four items are in "gear" it's best to take only pull-backs in the direction of the trend.
IF you want to try anti-trend moves, wait for the 2nd or 3rd level of S/R on the pivot numbers and use a 4 point stop for the ES's. You'll usually get at least a 2 point re-treat from these 2nd or 3rd level numbers, so that you may move your stop to break-even once you are positive by 2 points. If you don't get the retreat, you'll be risking 4 points. When you're correct, you'll make a lot more as you saw in Monday's action.
Hope this makes sense and is of help.
On a day like today the most basic set-up for a trader that does not have enough marbles to go long near the open is the following:
1. establish a channel;
2. await a pullback;
3. buy @ or near the lower level of channel.
Why go short? You are the one that kept suggesting trading WITH the trend, not against it
N.B. Not hindsight, I have suggested to stay long to one of the ET members today via e-mail when ES was trading around 1315.00
Edit: it was around 1316.50/17 actually
Another nice JJ Buy on the ER. Good for a quick 2 points.
Usually after a nice trend day like yesterday, you start to get selling at that high, thus I was only looking for a retest.
2 points on the ER is a good way to start the morning.
There are enough great examples of JJ's original entry system on this forum, so I may not post them anymore.
They happen often and they work.
Thanks JJ for your ideas on this original entry as they have made me a nice chunk of change over the past four weeks.
Best of luck with your trading.
Usually after a nice trend day like yesterday, you start to get selling at that high, thus I was only looking for a retest.
2 points on the ER is a good way to start the morning.
There are enough great examples of JJ's original entry system on this forum, so I may not post them anymore.
They happen often and they work.
Thanks JJ for your ideas on this original entry as they have made me a nice chunk of change over the past four weeks.
Best of luck with your trading.
Man, I haven't gone anywhere.
***
Huge shoutout to caddyshack2006, who might trash talk but actually is a nice kid. He couldn't stand the Pivot Trend concept, and after proving that it cannot catch market turns very well (being a linear based model), for the purposes of this thread, neither can I.
***
I was up after work doing some research until about 5am, trying to figure-out what type of trend meter I could use in lieu of the Pivot Trend concept, as after missing yesterday's huge upsurge, it is apparent that:
No static momentum model (at least not one that I have) is going to be able to consistently measure market movement correctly. Nope not one. This is important, because per the rules of the thread, I need something which can be coded, is simple to use, works and will cosistently deliver the goods.
So after reading through my copy of The Winners and Losers of the Zero-Sum Game: The Origins of Trading Profits, Price Efficiency and market Liquidity
by Lawrence Harris
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...nners+and+losers+of+the+zero-sum+game&spell=1
and reviewing this little excerpt about who the players in the game are from the hard rightedge website:
http://www.hardrightedge.com/wizard/ss1.htm
I decided that I will be using the 15 minute timeframe with a Simple Moving Average (40) to determine the dominant market trend, in lieu of the Pivot Trend model for this thread. It won't be fixed and I will be able to look at trades which are against it when the market is in a narrow range, and also I will be able to stay on the right side of trends when all the screens are green and the market is making an obvious up-move, but staying fixed to an old model is keeping me on the wrong side of it.
Once again, I don't use this stuff to trade, it's an experiment in creating a virutually autoamted public system to trade.
But it has to work to be any good to anyone.
Best Regards,
Jimmy
edit: and I knew after yesterday's huge double move up, there would most likely just be some consolidation activity today.
***
Huge shoutout to caddyshack2006, who might trash talk but actually is a nice kid. He couldn't stand the Pivot Trend concept, and after proving that it cannot catch market turns very well (being a linear based model), for the purposes of this thread, neither can I.
***
I was up after work doing some research until about 5am, trying to figure-out what type of trend meter I could use in lieu of the Pivot Trend concept, as after missing yesterday's huge upsurge, it is apparent that:
No static momentum model (at least not one that I have) is going to be able to consistently measure market movement correctly. Nope not one. This is important, because per the rules of the thread, I need something which can be coded, is simple to use, works and will cosistently deliver the goods.
So after reading through my copy of The Winners and Losers of the Zero-Sum Game: The Origins of Trading Profits, Price Efficiency and market Liquidity
by Lawrence Harris
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...nners+and+losers+of+the+zero-sum+game&spell=1
and reviewing this little excerpt about who the players in the game are from the hard rightedge website:
http://www.hardrightedge.com/wizard/ss1.htm
I decided that I will be using the 15 minute timeframe with a Simple Moving Average (40) to determine the dominant market trend, in lieu of the Pivot Trend model for this thread. It won't be fixed and I will be able to look at trades which are against it when the market is in a narrow range, and also I will be able to stay on the right side of trends when all the screens are green and the market is making an obvious up-move, but staying fixed to an old model is keeping me on the wrong side of it.
Once again, I don't use this stuff to trade, it's an experiment in creating a virutually autoamted public system to trade.
But it has to work to be any good to anyone.
Best Regards,
Jimmy
edit: and I knew after yesterday's huge double move up, there would most likely just be some consolidation activity today.