Trading the Pivots
- Thread starter JimmyJam
- Start date
Here was a "buy" using JJ's original system.
The buy was at 1304 on the 15:15 bar as it tested the 20 ema (I use a 20 ema, JJ uses an 18 sma).
The CCI 14 crosses above zero.
My exit was 1/2 position at 1307, near yesterday's high and the remaining half I will exit at break-even or 16:00.
The nice part of this trade was that you didn't need to have the fortune of being on the correct side of the market when the Fed minutes were released. You could have patiently waited for the market to give you a signal.
JJ, I thank you for your trade entry ideas, as you can see they seem to work
The buy was at 1304 on the 15:15 bar as it tested the 20 ema (I use a 20 ema, JJ uses an 18 sma).
The CCI 14 crosses above zero.
My exit was 1/2 position at 1307, near yesterday's high and the remaining half I will exit at break-even or 16:00.
The nice part of this trade was that you didn't need to have the fortune of being on the correct side of the market when the Fed minutes were released. You could have patiently waited for the market to give you a signal.
JJ, I thank you for your trade entry ideas, as you can see they seem to work
proof that even a blind hog finds the occasional acorn. dude was saying rally from the open. guess you guys dont use stops.
For Wednesday, 8/30/06.
Market Status
Pivot Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1309
Median Pivot: 1303
1st Support: 1299
Current Trend: Down (2:21am ET)
***
Market gave us an early sell-off yesterday, rejecting the support at the Median Pivot and moving lower to S1, where support came in strong and took Price Action up to almost the R1 level.
Price Action is currently sitting on the Median Pivot, Market Trend is Up, I would not be too surprised at an early lift off of the Pivot, followed by profit taking at or around R1.
***
The system initiated trade early, and even though the buyers came in and more than covered the early loss, my goal in doing this thread remains to have a stand-alone system with positvie expectancy which is free to the public.
I will continue to work around these setups to find the right combination which I feel is optimal, making calls based only on the system as it is presented to you.
Much thanks to Trader273 and DonKee for their positive feedback. If anyone else has any relevant questions pertaining to the pivots, please ask.
Best Regards,
JJ
P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
Market Status
Pivot Trend: Bullish
1st Resistance: 1309
Median Pivot: 1303
1st Support: 1299
Current Trend: Down (2:21am ET)
***
Market gave us an early sell-off yesterday, rejecting the support at the Median Pivot and moving lower to S1, where support came in strong and took Price Action up to almost the R1 level.
Price Action is currently sitting on the Median Pivot, Market Trend is Up, I would not be too surprised at an early lift off of the Pivot, followed by profit taking at or around R1.
***
The system initiated trade early, and even though the buyers came in and more than covered the early loss, my goal in doing this thread remains to have a stand-alone system with positvie expectancy which is free to the public.
I will continue to work around these setups to find the right combination which I feel is optimal, making calls based only on the system as it is presented to you.
Much thanks to Trader273 and DonKee for their positive feedback. If anyone else has any relevant questions pertaining to the pivots, please ask.
Best Regards,
JJ
P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
Let the detractors detract.
I considered this issue way before I put this thread together , realizing that it is an Open Forum, and anyone can enter the thread. I knew that I would be putting together work that everyone could see, and one minute people could trash-talk my system and the next one benefit from it in the same breath ...
... but I also realized that whatever negative things people had to say, it just didn't matter, the good far outweights the bad.
Best Regards,
Jimmy Jam
Question: are you trading the signals you post here with real money or are you just simulating the trades?
I enjoy the journal.
Cheers.
I was thinking about it;
and I decided that each thread is sort of like when a new band comes on the scene and releases a DVD (or a "record" for you old folks).
So what happens is you have a bunch of posts and they are like "singles", and if we extend the analogy a little bit, I think we could say that some posts become "hits". That is to say, they appeal to the public, they have the right stuff, a lyric that sticks in your memory, a catchy melody, a compelling beat that makes you want to "hear it" again and again...
Now in some ways this analogy fails..for instance, when you hear a new tune on the radio, well it has to really "burn" from the beginning for it to draw our interest. Think about oldies like "stairway to heaven" for instance...right at the outset, the first moment you hear it YOU KNOW this is going somewhere....
I think (Jimmy) that what you have to do is rise to the ocassion in the sense that you have a nice start, and you have a little bit of success and some basis for continuation...NOW whether you have a "hit" on your hands depends on where you take this..
Can you show us something that holds our interest, something that is a real improvement on that initial theme. Does it just fizzle out here as you try different things, or can you find something that really "cooks" and opens up the doors for those who are along for the ride?
Okay so I am going to cut the lights and listen to "Stairway to Heaven" a couple more times....
Later
Steve
and I decided that each thread is sort of like when a new band comes on the scene and releases a DVD (or a "record" for you old folks).
So what happens is you have a bunch of posts and they are like "singles", and if we extend the analogy a little bit, I think we could say that some posts become "hits". That is to say, they appeal to the public, they have the right stuff, a lyric that sticks in your memory, a catchy melody, a compelling beat that makes you want to "hear it" again and again...
Now in some ways this analogy fails..for instance, when you hear a new tune on the radio, well it has to really "burn" from the beginning for it to draw our interest. Think about oldies like "stairway to heaven" for instance...right at the outset, the first moment you hear it YOU KNOW this is going somewhere....
I think (Jimmy) that what you have to do is rise to the ocassion in the sense that you have a nice start, and you have a little bit of success and some basis for continuation...NOW whether you have a "hit" on your hands depends on where you take this..
Can you show us something that holds our interest, something that is a real improvement on that initial theme. Does it just fizzle out here as you try different things, or can you find something that really "cooks" and opens up the doors for those who are along for the ride?
Okay so I am going to cut the lights and listen to "Stairway to Heaven" a couple more times....
Later
Steve
Here's a question/answer response to an ET'er who sent me a PM regarding the system (I've deleted any references, so they can remain anonymous). I use it to explain where I am in my process, and hopefully to answer all of the questions posed.
***
question:
hi, i am reading your journal, great stuff, i definately appreciate your journal, i am still reading, a few questions, do you just use moving averages & the cci indicator with the pivots? any other indicators you use? where or how do you get your daily pivot numbers from? if i missed any of this in the journal, i like how your trade.. i agree with your rules 150% , i do like nq better than es , more movement, less noice in my opinion, but just starting, today a little choppy, next week should be really good.. any input on your setups, is appreciated, thanks
answer:
hi,
the basic setup info is on page 22 of the thread.
that includes a spreadsheet that you can use to fill-in the OHLC data and generate the pivots, support and resistance for any security that you want to trade.
the spreadsheet also includes the calculations for the pivot trend indicator, (a simple formula that uses the median pivot vs its 3 and 5 day averages to determine the current market trend), as measured by the daily price action.
the charts are based on using moving averages, an inverse fisher transform for determing market trend, and the cci histogram (set at 14,1) for continuation trades on extended runs.
all trade is based on the market direction, as determined by the pivot trend, and intra-day price action as it responds to the pivots.
i am currently experimenting with the right combination of indicators and methodology which will deliver consistent positive results as measured on a weekly basis, as it is very difficult (though not impossible) to deliver positve results day-in and day-out.
the system is still i the developmental stage, so i would no more trade live money with it than i would take an experimental drug, go see a ballet which is still being choreographed and expect a bravura performance, or try to eat my dinner before it's been cooked properly :eek: .
what i am doing (and you can do as well) is keeping a journal of the trades, detailing their performance on a weekly basis. As you the reader become more comfortable with the system (and the equity curve remains consistent!), and you see steady performance as measured on a monthly basis, you may commit capital to the system as you see fit.
but we aren't there yet.
best regards,
jj
***
question:
hi, i am reading your journal, great stuff, i definately appreciate your journal, i am still reading, a few questions, do you just use moving averages & the cci indicator with the pivots? any other indicators you use? where or how do you get your daily pivot numbers from? if i missed any of this in the journal, i like how your trade.. i agree with your rules 150% , i do like nq better than es , more movement, less noice in my opinion, but just starting, today a little choppy, next week should be really good.. any input on your setups, is appreciated, thanks
answer:
hi,
the basic setup info is on page 22 of the thread.
that includes a spreadsheet that you can use to fill-in the OHLC data and generate the pivots, support and resistance for any security that you want to trade.
the spreadsheet also includes the calculations for the pivot trend indicator, (a simple formula that uses the median pivot vs its 3 and 5 day averages to determine the current market trend), as measured by the daily price action.
the charts are based on using moving averages, an inverse fisher transform for determing market trend, and the cci histogram (set at 14,1) for continuation trades on extended runs.
all trade is based on the market direction, as determined by the pivot trend, and intra-day price action as it responds to the pivots.
i am currently experimenting with the right combination of indicators and methodology which will deliver consistent positive results as measured on a weekly basis, as it is very difficult (though not impossible) to deliver positve results day-in and day-out.
the system is still i the developmental stage, so i would no more trade live money with it than i would take an experimental drug, go see a ballet which is still being choreographed and expect a bravura performance, or try to eat my dinner before it's been cooked properly :eek:
.what i am doing (and you can do as well) is keeping a journal of the trades, detailing their performance on a weekly basis. As you the reader become more comfortable with the system (and the equity curve remains consistent!), and you see steady performance as measured on a monthly basis, you may commit capital to the system as you see fit.
but we aren't there yet.
best regards,
jj