Trading the Pivots

For Tuesday, 8/29/06.

Market Status

Pivot Trend: Bullish

1st Resistance: 1309
Median Pivot: 1302
1st Support: 1296

Current Trend: Down
***
Market is dropping after yesterday's huge upsurge. The Median Pivot is currently holding support. Let's see if we can get the action off of S1 if it continues dropping through it.
***
Best Regards,

JJ

P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Long @ 1303.5

Looks like it wants to move off of the Pivot again. Stdying the MA's it would be a Reversal Buy

Here is the setup.
More...

your pivot is between R1 and R2?
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Long @ 1303.5

Looks like it wants to move off of the Pivot again. Stdying the MA's it would be a Reversal Buy

Here is the setup.
More...

Out at 1301.5
 
Seemed like you were doing really well following the trend, why did you decide to go against it. I used to do that, and you are more than likely going to get killed. Not saying that it's impossible, but its not a high probablity that it will work.
 
Quote from Trader273:

Seemed like you were doing really well following the trend ...
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Yeah, I agree with you.

The trend has currently turned back up (as measured by the Pivot Trend indicator).

The Median Pivot didn't hold, so price action will most likely go down to S1 (1296) and hold, or move back up through the Median Pivot, at which I will go Long again.
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

The trend has currently turned back up (as measured by the Pivot Trend indicator).
More...

I guess this is what the market what it is. I look at my chart and see a downtrend, but you see an uptrend. Who knows who'll be right, good luck:)
 
Quote from Trader273:

I guess this is what the market what it is. I look at my chart and see a downtrend, but you see an uptrend. Who knows who'll be right, good luck:)
More...

IF your even going to use an indicator to determine the trend, you must use an indicator that puts you on the correct side of the market for the time frame you are trading.

I don't know anything about the reliability of the "pivot trend" on a daily basis predicting the intraday trend on my 5 minute chart.

I do know from watching the charts that JJ originally put up, that trading in the direction of the 18 and 40 sma and when the 18sma is leading has kept me on the correct side of the market.

There are several "continuation" trades each day even when the ranges have been narrow.

I'm not that good of a trader, so I try to only trade with the trend in my time frame. That way, if I'm a little off, the trend might eventually bail me out.

The only trade that I have in my arsenal at this time that totally ignores all of this, is the selling of R2 and the buying of S2 using a 4 point stop and money management as outlined previously. This seems to work because the market is already extended at these points and a 2 point "back-off" is a high probability occurrence from these levels.

Trading with the trend in the time frame that my signals are generated has helped me to stay out of trouble.
 
Quote from DonKee:

IF your even going to use an indicator to determine the trend, you must use an indicator that puts you on the correct side of the market for the time frame you are trading.

I don't know anything about the reliability of the "pivot trend" on a daily basis predicting the intraday trend on my 5 minute chart.

I do know from watching the charts that JJ originally put up, that trading in the direction of the 18 and 40 sma and when the 18sma is leading has kept me on the correct side of the market.

There are several "continuation" trades each day even when the ranges have been narrow.

I'm not that good of a trader, so I try to only trade with the trend in my time frame. That way, if I'm a little off, the trend might eventually bail me out.

The only trade that I have in my arsenal at this time that totally ignores all of this, is the selling of R2 and the buying of S2 using a 4 point stop and money management as outlined previously. This seems to work because the market is already extended at these points and a 2 point "back-off" is a high probability occurrence from these levels.

Trading with the trend in the time frame that my signals are generated has helped me to stay out of trouble.
More...

Ho ho!

This from a guy who says he's "not that good of a trader".

I'm not sure of the reliability of the Pivot Trend indicator either, that's why I'm experiementing with it on this thread.

If it works, hey, I've given traders a tool they can use to determine the overall market trend as measured on a daily basis. Then, at the very least, by using SMA's or EMA's they can determine the market trend and trade with it (if they trade using a 5 minute timeframe), while respecting the pivots.

Regards,

JJ
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

your pivot is between R1 and R2?
More...

Hi QQQ.

Here's what the whole setup looks like using the formula from the spreadsheet on page 22, with today's numbers:

R3 1322
R2 1315
R1 1309
P 1302 (this is the Median Pivot)
S1 1296
S2 1289
S3 1283
***
Since the Median Pivot did not hold, traders will be looking at 1296 as the next level of support

Best Regards,

JJ
 
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