Trading the Pivots

Quote from DonKee:

I'm not sure how much you need to tweak. I didn't want to post during the day today, so as not to throw more information into the mix.
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Hey Don,

Thanks for the info and insight.

I definitely wasn't expecting a sell-off, not even as much as we did get. It turned out that my protective stop was placed at the low of the days' session. I figured that might be the case, but it is crucial that good trading discpline be demonstrated for the thread participants, so I just had to bid my time and wait for another setup to enter a trade (and of course, we have another Gap Up during the overnight session :p )

Believe me, that is ALWAYS FRUSTRATING.

But the only thing better than a win is a loss where you learn from the experience (gotta learn to love your losses). Because they reflect new information that you either didn't know, or information that you did know but didn't act on.

I agree with you about the choppy, back and forth trading to be anticipated in tomorrow's session.

The thread will only be taking Longs, but after yesterday's extreme narrow range methinks there are going to be opportunities on both sides for some coin.

Best Regards,

Jimmy Jam
 
For Tuesday, 8/22/06.

Market Status

Pivot Trend: Bullish

1st Resistance: 1307
Median Pivot: 1303
1st Support: 1303

Current Trend: Up
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Note, while the Pivot Trend for the ES remains Bullish, the Pivot Trend for the NQ has shifted to Neutral (3 Day Bearish, 5 Day Bullish). This usually forshadows a period of wide rangeing back forth trading, followed by a change in the market trend (think 45 degree line upwards, see-saw action, 45 degree line downwards), and if I were trading the NQ on this thread I would take positions in both directions as they setup.

However the ES is still Bullish, so I'll be looking for the Longs tomorrow.

Market has gapped-up slightly, anticipate wide ranging, choppy action ... we'll see.

See you at the Open.

Best Regards,

Jimmy Jam
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

One of the great dangers is actually tweaking on the basis of every little loss or valid comment. Eventually you have so many rules that eliminate many trades you aren't really trading enough or accepting that risk and uncertainty are a critical part of this game.
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Quote from steve46:

... I have no idea if you are tweaking your system rules based on my comment, but if you are tempted to, I would say hold off and THINK about it for a while.....
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Hey Guys,

Thanks for the positive comments.

I think understanding the role that Gappage plays in trading is a key component to understanding what is happening in the markets in the present moment, and has confounded traders for quite some time (uh, like centuries - see info on Japanese windows).

We definitely won't solve the problem in a week, but your comments have given me much to think about. I'll be observing the markets with them in mind over the coming months.

Best Regards,

James
 
2 day chart showing still testing both lows & highs since the break out last week.
we are in chop city.might continue chopping us till any solid economic data pushes eiether way.
Run for 1320 or back test to 1280?
No prediction & play it close.
 

Attachments

i'm looking for at least 8 pts on this move.

why?

the narrowing range will lead to range expansion ... which will to range contraction ... etc.
 
Looked at your pivot calculation xls - what do you use for a time frame for your "yesterday" data? Because of Globex, these markets (I trade S&P E-mini) are well-nigh contniuous, making the choice of start/stop times pretty flexible. For example, some use Midnight as a divider, others use only "pit" times, while still others use "pit" close as the dividing line but take the re-start at 1530 (I'm on US Central time).

What's yours?

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Current Trade: -130200 @0910
Current Target: 130500, follow 200
Current Stop: 130250 + 050
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