Trading the NQ: Take 2

[k p]

one thing you might do before the open is "look" at a longer term chart 5min or 10 or 15... what ever you are comfortable with... when i looked, it looked like a lot of chop into the open which made me hesitate on any trades...and you had only 1 chance to short as price rose to the overnight high about an hour before the open. other shorts come from your 5sec chart. even if you did see the uptrend, looking at my charts, long trades on the way up would have needed a stop of between 4 and 6 points to stay in for the full run from before the open to the top of the run.

excellent job keeping losses small, but you probably took too many trades.

cheers

hi toucan!

I for sure do look at a long term chart. I check the daily, hourly, and also have the 1 min and 5 min up on the second monitor and always scan it to see what that looks like so I'm not sucked into micro price action. Why do you say it looked like chop going into the open? Just because there were so many trades at this level? That price has criss-crossed here so much? If this is the reason, I agree. Here is my hourly chart. Blue line I added in is the ONH. But what i still do see is most of the action is below 41.50. So I was just looking to be in a short from up high, from anything below 41 or so to just hold it. But I guess I couldn't get into a short from high enough before being taken out.

I can't take any trades overnight since I get up just just 30 mins before the NY open. That nice drop from 4445 happens about the time I'm going to bed actually!

Oh, and to better answer your question. Here is my 1 min chart. I have that nice range from about 30 to 40 outlined. So I was looking for shorts at 40, and most were decent except maybe that first one where I caught the low right after the open since it wasn't close to 40 at all. Maybe when I look at this chart now, it seem obvious price was breaking out of this range, but this perhaps is helped by the power of hindsight.

 

[eminiman414]

how bout that whoop. You pegged the rev. Gotta give price room to RET or even retest the level. Get your stop beyond the danger point.

 

[gears]

Not that I'm ANY kind of expert, but if you're looking at the daily, I see more of a long bias than a short one. Price had recently bounced off the median of the down channel and has been heading up. Here's my chart to 'prove' to you that I took a long. (Doing SLA using a 3min timeframe.) I also took a short and it didn't work out so well, but that's trading.

Well this sucks…...

Took a short.... drops after a bit of hesitation, move stop to BE, ended up being BE +2, and got taken out just before the drop. Would have held this one to 10 points, perhaps locked in +5 after we dropped below that.

If you're going to go with a 2point stop, you have to STAY with a 2point stop.

 

[k p]

how bout that whoop. You pegged the rev. Gotta give price room to RET or even retest the level. Get your stop beyond the danger point.

I still cant understand your whoop no matter how much you explain it to me! LOL...

That short from 59 wasn't the best. Ideally, I wanted to short from higher up, just take it, get the best price because as ND says, if you're gonna play reversals, you don't really need PA, just take the damn short at the top.

Anyway, the real reason of course is to not turn this into yet another losing trade. Now had I moved the stop to BE +1, perhaps I wouldn't have been taken out. I'm not sure why it was +2 ticks. In fact, I thought it was more, I thought I was locking in at least $20... LOL

 

[toucan]

hi toucan!

I for sure do look at a long term chart. I check the daily, hourly, and also have the 1 min and 5 min up on the second monitor and always scan it to see what that looks like so I'm not sucked into micro price action. Why do you say it looked like chop going into the open? Just because there were so many trades at this level? That price has criss-crossed here so much? If this is the reason, I agree. Here is my hourly chart. Blue line I added in is the ONH. But what i still do see is most of the action is below 41.50. So I was just looking to be in a short from up high, from anything below 41 or so to just hold it. But I guess I couldn't get into a short from high enough before being taken out.

View attachment 151820

I can't take any trades overnight since I get up just just 30 mins before the NY open. That nice drop from 4445 happens about the time I'm going to bed actually!

Oh, and to better answer your question. Here is my 1 min chart. I have that nice range from about 30 to 40 outlined. So I was looking for shorts at 40, and most were decent except maybe that first one where I caught the low right after the open since it wasn't close to 40 at all. Maybe when I look at this chart now, it seem obvious price was breaking out of this range, but this perhaps is helped by the power of hindsight.

View attachment 151822

we all trade different... for me the 10 point range you show is chop, so I would have only traded breakouts of that range, not reversals off the high or low of the range. just not enough space in the range to make money given a trader can't get perfect entries and exits.

 

[eminiman414]

LITHA with a stop above the danger point. If the reversal doesn't hit your target you lose.

 

[k p]

Not that I'm ANY kind of expert, but if you're looking at the daily, I see more of a long bias than a short one. Price had recently bounced off the median of the down channel and has been heading up. Here's my chart to 'prove' to you that I took a long. (Doing SLA using a 3min timeframe.) I also took a short and it didn't work out so well, but that's trading.
View attachment 151823

If you're going to go with a 2point stop, you have to STAY with a 2point stop.

Sweet... I love the clear entries marked so thanks. I see you manged to stay out of the mess at the open. Your long though, for me, just happens to be in the middle of two levels I have on my chart, those at roughly 40 and 60, so I consider it risky, but its true that if we already cleared 40, getting to 60 seems very likely.

At the same time, when you took your short, you did kind of get caught trading "in the middle". So you got lucky on one, and unlucky on the other... but that's trading!

If you're going to go with a 2point stop, you have to STAY with a 2point stop.

I fully agree... except... just one minor little rule, at least make the stop above or below some swing point. Ideally my trades are taken on a razor's edge, so the stop of 2 points does actually clear the swing point, but I knew that short was late, so I needed to give it more room (and party because I was hoping and wishing it didn't fail.. which it did... and cost me more money in the process)

 

[k p]

LITHA with a stop above the danger point. If the reversal doesn't hit your target you lose.

Well fuck.. now you tell me.. where were you when I put the trade on! LOL...

Yes, the short is at 59, price was as high as 61, my level is 61.50, so if I used a 3 point stop, set at 62, just past the danger point, I'd be golden. Aye... nothing I can do about it now though. But you know... I'm so happy I took it. On the one hand I'm taking a trade when I'm past a $200 loss limit, but on the other hand, it had to be taken because the opportunity was too good.

 

[toucan]

I still cant understand your whoop no matter how much you explain it to me! LOL...

That short from 59 wasn't the best. Ideally, I wanted to short from higher up, just take it, get the best price because as ND says, if you're gonna play reversals, you don't really need PA, just take the damn short at the top.

Anyway, the real reason of course is to not turn this into yet another losing trade. Now had I moved the stop to BE +1, perhaps I wouldn't have been taken out. I'm not sure why it was +2 ticks. In fact, I thought it was more, I thought I was locking in at least $20... LOL

yep... bottom line is that you have to manage trades better.

 

[k p]

we all trade different... for me the 10 point range you show is chop, so I would have only traded breakouts of that range, not reversals off the high or low of the range. just not enough space in the range to make money given a trader can't get perfect entries and exits.

you know.. this is very smart indeed and I see what you mean. dare I say, compliments of ND, I'm not looking for perfect entries. with a tight range, I say just take a REV at the extreme. the thing about this today was that the extreme at 40 was such an important level, so the idea was to get into a short at 40 and watch it drop 50 points while i kept trailing my target down. but it didn't turn out this way.