Trading the NQ: Take 2
- Thread starter k p
- Start date
LOL... And here is me wishing people posted more charts, especially with entries and exits.PS. Please don't answer my question with a chart.
Very interesting question. If I had a plan that called for placing a limit order at a level each and every time, this I could do. But this is too simple and it doesn't work... there has to be a certain about of "reading" price.
Then you also have the idea that no two moments are ever the same. Plus lets tack on that trading is more of an art, rather than science. And, a level is never a firm level at a specific price, but more of a range, which price might react a few ticks above or below.
So now what I see is trading that needs to be more fluid rather than completely static/automated.
I don't disagree that a trading plan is necessary, but I do believe that much of the success that profitable traders have is based on hours of screen time. Yes they have a plan, but they also have a sense of intuition from thousands of hours of study, SIM trading, and replay. So a trading plan isn't like a set of instructions that say to put one foot in front of the other to walk, but more like months spent going from crawling, to standing, to falling over, until you finally master the art of walking. Its not like you could just place numbers on the floor that show where the foot placements should go an expect someone who had never walked to just know how to put their feet there and magically walk.
You're hooked on charts.LOL... And here is me wishing people posted more charts, especially with entries and exits.
Very interesting question. If I had a plan that called for placing a limit order at a level each and every time, this I could do. But this is too simple and it doesn't work... there has to be a certain about of "reading" price.
Then you also have the idea that no two moments are ever the same. Plus lets tack on that trading is more of an art, rather than science. And, a level is never a firm level at a specific price, but more of a range, which price might react a few ticks above or below.
So now what I see is trading that needs to be more fluid rather than completely static/automated.
I don't disagree that a trading plan is necessary, but I do believe that much of the success that profitable traders have is based on hours of screen time. Yes they have a plan, but they also have a sense of intuition from thousands of hours of study, SIM trading, and replay. So a trading plan isn't like a set of instructions that say to put one foot in front of the other to walk, but more like months spent going from crawling, to standing, to falling over, until you finally master the art of walking. Its not like you could just place numbers on the floor that show where the foot placements should go an expect someone who had never walked to just know how to put their feet there and magically walk.
While PA AND PA behavior is very fluid/ever changing, a traders Method needn't be so.
This is YOUR GAME, and you get to decide for yourself how to approach it. But it must be consistent and repeatable...
Even though PA MORPHS doesn't mean you can't still have fixed variables for entry. Does it?
I'm following your struggle and was curious why you hesitate on developing a rigid approach.
Certainty will never exist here.
Good luck and I wish you the best. You have some amazing minds offering you great knowledge.
-JS
Going into today, I wasn't quite sure what to do. My head was spinning from so much stuff in my journal yesterday. I knew that I was going to say that I would stop posting because although all the stuff shown has been helpful, much of it is different from what I'm doing and seeing, so it wasn't really helpful to my method, but I was just going to announce this after my day today.
So when we opened and had gone sideways, I figured I just wouldn't put on any trades. I had the overnight levels marked, but also a tighter range which I will show on the 5 min chart so its obvious where I got my lines from.
Once we did drop below, well none of it is all that clean for 2 pt stop trades. I missed the first long opportunity when price bounces off the PDH, but I did go long when I thought I would catch a second bounce because the buying from the first bounce was just so strong.
After a quick loss (which had major slippage of 4 ticks), I tried to get into a short, but was taken out by a few ticks. The second short I tried was a bit too late, and ended up being closed out at BE since I have the platform setup to move the stop to BE after it goes 3 points into profit. (although I know that I should maybe change this as its causing more harm than good)
Tried a third short thinking this swing point would hold as R, given that I've seen this happen many, many times, but it didn't.
Then I just watched price drop without me.
Anyway, needless to say, its time for a break. I'm clearly spinning my wheels and losing money at the same time.
As I post this 5 min chart to show how my lines were drawn for the day, its pretty apparent that after the open, once price penetrated the resistance line, the pink one, and then dropped below, shorts should have been considered still within the range, but I know that's such a hindsight thing for me to say.
So when we opened and had gone sideways, I figured I just wouldn't put on any trades. I had the overnight levels marked, but also a tighter range which I will show on the 5 min chart so its obvious where I got my lines from.
Once we did drop below, well none of it is all that clean for 2 pt stop trades. I missed the first long opportunity when price bounces off the PDH, but I did go long when I thought I would catch a second bounce because the buying from the first bounce was just so strong.
After a quick loss (which had major slippage of 4 ticks), I tried to get into a short, but was taken out by a few ticks. The second short I tried was a bit too late, and ended up being closed out at BE since I have the platform setup to move the stop to BE after it goes 3 points into profit. (although I know that I should maybe change this as its causing more harm than good)
Tried a third short thinking this swing point would hold as R, given that I've seen this happen many, many times, but it didn't.
Then I just watched price drop without me.
Anyway, needless to say, its time for a break. I'm clearly spinning my wheels and losing money at the same time.
As I post this 5 min chart to show how my lines were drawn for the day, its pretty apparent that after the open, once price penetrated the resistance line, the pink one, and then dropped below, shorts should have been considered still within the range, but I know that's such a hindsight thing for me to say.
Attachments
Just posted my results, and as you can see, I sadly didn't. These 5 sec charts are in some ways messing me up because I'm giving price no time to retrace. But to be honest, when I see price drop 9 points below that PDL, and come all the way back up, I'm not sure if I'm really thinking the move is still down given that price had gone back up 10 points. And for me today, I tried some short that failed. So although in the back of my head I figured that the low put in so far would at least be tested, its anybodies guess how high it goes before coming back down again. Sigh...
sounds like you are getting discouraged, you might try what some above have suggested...
pick one setup only and decide how you will trade it (decide setup, how you will enter, and how you will manage the trade)
look only for that one setup without all the market detail you tend to look for
perhaps use a little longer timeframe so you don't get balled up in small moves
sim trade that setup until you either accept the setup as valid or toss the setup if it doesn't work
just saying
toucan
1000%
This part is somewhat discouraging because then it means I have nothing to do all day, nor can I sit there on some days for hours waiting for it. I mean if my setup is gonna be a bounce from the overnight low, if price doesn't even reach it, I got nothing to do.
I'm seeing this much more clearer now. Sometimes I even think looking for setups to get into a trade almost over complicates it, at least for me, since I'm looking at the 5 sec chart. What I see at the end of the day is either the level breaks or it doesn't. Either price breaks out and comes back below, or it doesn't. When I try and look for a setup, all that this accomplishes is getting into the move too late.
Anyway... no need to work all this out now cause its clearly not gonna get solved today.
That 5 second chart is fast, fast, fast.
I have tried out NoDoji's limit entry after the breakout. Not every trade is triggered obviously, but it is giving me 2 point stop losses on the 1 min chart, which is better than the 4 or 5 points I used to get.
I only had 2 trades today, but they were much easier to watch than the usual moves out to 3 points positive, and then back into negative again, and a possible early exit with all the other fearful traders. Could be something to look at.
I have tried out NoDoji's limit entry after the breakout. Not every trade is triggered obviously, but it is giving me 2 point stop losses on the 1 min chart, which is better than the 4 or 5 points I used to get.
I only had 2 trades today, but they were much easier to watch than the usual moves out to 3 points positive, and then back into negative again, and a possible early exit with all the other fearful traders. Could be something to look at.
Its a totally different way to think about getting into trades than how we were first taught... that is the eye opening thing. To see price drop below a level and wait for a RET and then get in really only works if price continues to drop, but so often price likes to come up first. To get into a short from much higher up, just below the level at which you'd say the short isn't going to work is just such a radical different way of thinking, but with trading, a radical different way of thinking is obviously necessary.
If price never comes up though, then yes, you're out of the game. I see myself missing all of these moves. The times I would wait for it to come back up sharply, it wouldn't, and would just continue lower. And the times I take the trade as a BO, getting in on the move at the bottom, it will first come back up. Sigh...