Trading the Moon

I don't like to blow my own trumpet but theres alot of ignorance on this thread.
Here is a live call I made only 2 days ago in ET chat based on how I trade lunar phases that is documented in the chat log:

PS apologies in advance to any posters in the chat that disapprove of me posting these logs as I have posted these log extracts without there approval.
PPS This was the only tip ahead of time that I gave in chat this week.

http://beta.elitetrader.com/ch/Digi...t/Transcripts/Elite_Trader_Chat/20081211.html

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 11, 2008 9:27:37 AM)
CF - got a hot tip for ya on my radar for tommorrow

Willleung (Dec 11, 2008 9:27:44 AM)
yeah 5 m ago

mad_badger (Dec 11, 2008 9:27:51 AM)
watching GLD

bighog (Dec 11, 2008 9:27:55 AM)
hermit, get used to it for next 8 years :D

TheAngryHermit (Dec 11, 2008 9:28:01 AM)
4

CFerret (Dec 11, 2008 9:28:03 AM)
NZ: oh, what is it?

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 11, 2008 9:28:31 AM)
london time 7.03 am go long eur - min 100 pips 10/1 r/r

CFerret (Dec 11, 2008 9:28:42 AM)
will keep that in mind, thx





http://beta.elitetrader.com/ch/Digi...t/Transcripts/Elite_Trader_Chat/20081212.html


NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:32 AM)
hey cf

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:33 AM)
Will: fine :)

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:44 AM)
NZ: you were right on target with your yest prediction!

bighog (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:47 AM)
Ron is that man, listen to what he says what HE COULD NOT DO. Congress screwed up.

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:47 AM)
CF, ha. keep the hand on the soap? :D

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:39:56 AM)
di you get it?

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:00 AM)
NZ: 100+ pips and exactly that time was like 6 pips off bottom

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:14 AM)
NZ: i didn't take exactly it, but longed off own signals a bit later

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:17 AM)
but watched

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:22 AM)
and was amazed how precise it was

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:39 AM)
nz, that's great prediction

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:40 AM)
your probability of guessing was negligible so must say i am very impressed

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:43 AM)
a bit more pullback than i liked (13) if i rememebr but yeah the oscillators lined up soon after

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:44 AM)
:)

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:45 AM)
it went 130 pips

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:55 AM)
and stop of 10 pips would be enough

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:40:55 AM)
like i said

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:07 AM)
ya it really was cool

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:13 AM)
i am your fan :D

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:34 AM)
lol - full moon in an hour or so - dont go looney on me

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:40 AM)
lol

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:47 AM)
ya full moon really

TheAngryHermit (Dec 12, 2008 9:41:51 AM)
bad news! Let's rally!!!

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:01 AM)
ha, Herm

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:11 AM)
NZ, but so precise

bighog (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:12 AM)
senators can not force their self centered will on others so easily :D

TheAngryHermit (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:12 AM)
fucking retarded market

Banjo (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:27 AM)
lol

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:30 AM)
talked Janis after that upbust regarding your call

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:35 AM)
ya

AMT4SWA (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:47 AM)
Sold new ES contract at 863.00

NZDSPeCIALISt (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:50 AM)
ya cool spread the word and lets push the market

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:52 AM)
NZ said 7:03 and 7:05 was bottom and just 6 pips below 7:03

CFerret (Dec 12, 2008 9:42:58 AM)
and 130 pips rally after

Willleung (Dec 12, 2008 9:43:17 AM)
yep







One last thing: if your using oscillators/MA's haven't you ever wondered why on most of the popular ones the default setting is 14 - why not fib numbers 13 or 21 for example?? To quote Welles Wilder - "half the lunar cycle."
 
Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt:


One last thing: if your using oscillators/MA's haven't you ever wondered why on most of the popular ones the default setting is 14 - why not fib numbers 13 or 21 for example?? To quote Welles Wilder - "half the lunar cycle."
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Wouldn't it be more reasonable to say that the market is affected by everyone’s use of the default settings?

Surely, there are more investors looking at their default indicators than those looking at the moon cycle.:)
 
Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt:


PS apologies in advance to any posters in the chat that disapprove of me posting these logs as I have posted these log extracts without there approval.
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As OP all posts are welcome, especially ones like this that that are the result of painstaking research, testing and proven application.

And many thanks also for those posts void of research, testing and even minimal effort like reading this thread from the beginning that help to contrast the quality of an opinion against blind quantity. Without you this thread would be less merry approaching Christmas.
:D
 
Quote from stefan_777:

Wouldn't it be more reasonable to say that the market is affected by everyone’s use of the default settings?

Surely, there are more investors looking at their default indicators than those looking at the moon cycle.:)
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It isn't more reasonable because the error in this logic is trying to peg some cause/effect relationship to market behavour be it indicator settings, fibs, or moon cycles.

Moreover, most oscillator wavy type indicators are definitely not a cause because they're an effect of price to begin with.
 
Quote from JR97:

It isn't more reasonable because the error in this logic is trying to peg some cause/effect relationship to market behavour be it indicator settings, fibs, or moon cycles.

Moreover, most oscillator wavy type indicators are definitely not a cause because they're an effect of price to begin with.
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Definitely.

You said it better than I could.
 
Quote from JR97:
Does it matter how/why the call was made if it makes money?

I am adding you to the mix ---> Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt
Here is a live call I made only 2 days ago in ET chat based on how I trade lunar phases
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Your mistake is thinking that one call, or even a handful means anything:

In statistics, a result is called statistically significant if it is unlikely to have occurred by chance. "A statistically significant difference" simply means there is statistical evidence that there is a difference...

In statistics, a "spurious relationship" is a mathematical relationship in which two occurrences have no causal connection, yet it may be inferred that they do, due to a certain third, unseen factor. The spurious relationship gives an impression of a worthy link between two groups that is invalid when objectively examined.

It is frightening that you linked the two based on this trade. It converts you from the realm of an educated person into someone who wildly chants incantations to keep the dragon from eating the Sun (also called, a "solar eclipse")
 
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
J.P. Morgan

I guess using your logic then, JP Morgan was also "someone who wildly chants incantations to keep the dragon from eating the Sun".

Oh, off-course, JPM never meant that billionaires use astrology in a business context, it was for purely personal reasons, right?

How many calls similar to the ones that have been posted on this thread be statistically significant proof that the sun/moon/market correlation exists and can be profitably traded and unlikely to have occurred by chance in your eyes?

A million?

Reminds me of that Stuart Chase quote:
“For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible.”


By the way - for someone who is not convinced of the effects on markets by lunar and or planetary movements and goes out of his way to disprove such suggestion as you have demonstrated, you seem to be awfully clued up on esoteric matters when you uncommonly remark "the dragon from eating the Sun (also called, a "solar eclipse") - keep up the research!



Quote from TraderZones:

Your mistake is thinking that one call, or even a handful means anything:

In statistics, a result is called statistically significant if it is unlikely to have occurred by chance. "A statistically significant difference" simply means there is statistical evidence that there is a difference...

In statistics, a "spurious relationship" is a mathematical relationship in which two occurrences have no causal connection, yet it may be inferred that they do, due to a certain third, unseen factor. The spurious relationship gives an impression of a worthy link between two groups that is invalid when objectively examined.

It is frightening that you linked the two based on this trade. It converts you from the realm of an educated person into someone who wildly chants incantations to keep the dragon from eating the Sun (also called, a "solar eclipse")
More...
 
Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt:

"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
J.P. Morgan

There's that infamous Morgan quote again.

Sigh.

Does anyone know the original source for it?

I've been trying for ages but can't find where Morgan said/wrote it all those years ago.

There's no mention of it in his biographies.

Anyone?
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Quote from NZDSPeCIALISt:

"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
J.P. Morgan

I guess using your logic then, JP Morgan
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You can be assured JP Morgan did not point to one example as proof of anything. You would have been thrown out of his room. Charlatans use "well-chosen examples" to prove things. Knowledgeable people give significant track records of all trades to prove themselves...
 
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