Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

[FXtrader8911]

Something on the back of my mind..... Although I think social distancing is good for all and something that can be done in most cases, I was wondering whether the further step from that i.e. Government ordering your business to close, is actually legal and if the financial losses on the business owner and staff are recoverable from Government?

For example... you own a restaurant or boutique retail store, social distancing already halves (or more) the clientele you can service daily but you are able to hang on and keep the staff, the Government then tells you to close altogether, so the business ceases, you go bankrupt, the staff loses their job and the landlord keeps the 3 or 4 months security deposit and might even sue for the remaining balance of the lease... who is legally liable to pay for the damage caused by the involuntary closure? Any lawyers amongst us that can answer this?

 

[NotKnown]

The DAX continues. If we reach my top purple band tonight/tomorrow it usually means 1 of 2 things. Fast acceleration (has to be reason for it) or more commonly it will pull back inside and track around the blue line. There is always a chance of a reversal back to the mid so we shall see.

 

[FXtrader8911]

If we reach my top purple band tonight/tomorrow it usually means

What is the DPO sharp rise above baseline say?

 

[NotKnown]

What is the DPO sharp rise above baseline say?

If the ducks line up you are in an uptrend... for how long I do not know. How far it reaches into my bands is often an indication of how strong the trend will be. We are currently sitting on the blue so medium. More often than not we will sit between the mid and blue and just move up slowly. As you can see when the decline started we were sitting well outside the purple which means there was a lot of activity. That lined up with the news at hand.

DOW, UK and Aus are much the same as the DAX. DAX gave us a hook turn which is almost a gimmy hence I posted that. The others are just moving over the mid. I suspect there will be more bad news in the wind so would need to see what type of volume is causing the move.

 

[FXtrader8911]

+21% in 3 days on US markets, the biggest 3 day surge since 1931... Is it a ‘V’ bottom recovery, or is it something a kneejerk to something that’s going to take a lot more time?

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group thinks the recovery is not here yet. He said: "we may have seen a bottom, but not the bottom". He believes the known bad news ahead is priced into the market, for now, however, the "E" of the PE has not yet been calculated, when it is, another round of adjustments might come.

Markets have adopted the view that any information is better than no information, and Thursday's jobless claims number removed some uncertainty so the news rather than the number was taken, but as said above, when the "E" of the PE is announced, the jobless number might well have an impact.

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities said: "This is just the beginning of a tsunami of negative news, everything on the economic data front is going to start looking horrendous."

I was very tempted to remove all my hedges during Asia time but then I didn't. I remain slightly long in the US & Neutral in Asia & EU.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Most US stocks are down 3% or more on the opening, DOW is -4%

Market players are looking past the stimulus and trying to reassess the economic damage 6 months ahead. History does tell us that the lows need to be retested before a rally takes hold

BOEING announced restarting production of the Max... a very weird decision that markets did not like, it is 12% down and dragging the DOW down with it.

I got limit orders unwinding the shorts on the way down, if we do reach the previous lows I'll then be net long on all markets.

 

[expiated]

My numbers are telling me that the DOW futures needs to climb back over 21715 to remain bullish. If it is unable to do so, I will consider myself looking at another bearish leg.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Stocks fell sharply on Friday, giving back some of the strong gains experienced in the previous three days to cap off another volatile week, sentiment took a hit as the machines reacted to something the Fed said while investors focused back on the coronavirus outbreak after the US became the country with the most confirmed cases.

This week's three-day rally in stocks was somewhat unexpected, it had the trademarks of a reversing "flash crash", but on Friday investors returned their attention to the economy "shutdown" news raising much uncertainty as it's unclear whether the economy can be restarted as quickly as it was stalled despite the stimulus packages. Maneesh Deshpande, Barclays chief equity strategist, says: "impressive spikes are common in bear markets, but they don't often hold, bear market fake rallies are common".

 

[expiated]

My numbers are telling me that the DOW futures needs to climb back over 21715 to remain bullish.

Mission accomplished! (For now, at least.)

 

[FXtrader8911]

Mission accomplished!

There is nothing in the fundamentals that indicates a recovery is about to happen, and then, there is Mr Deshpande, Barclays chief equity strategist, that said: "impressive spikes are common in bear markets, but they don't often hold, bear market fake rallies are common".