Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

[FXtrader8911]

This week’s calendar packed with potentially market-moving events both in the US and in the EU. Investors are very much in wait-and-see mode however, the bots will move market on any of the many headlines so trading opportunities should be good though unpredictable. I'll be buying the dips rather than selling the rally until headlines turn into a trend. Trump is expected to postpone the 15th tariff trigger signalling weakness in his resolve to China who is likely to respond by becoming less willing to give in and drag negotiations out to infinity. It is to be noted that China might buy primary produce with one hand but has stopped buying all software & hardware from the US with the other... in effect, Trump is getting nowhere with China.

Looking further down the line, players are buying downside S&P puts with 12 months expiry at a historical level.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Trump is expected to postpone the 15th tariff trigger

I wouldn't bet money either way but I think he will impose them eventually. Politically, his base will continue to support him. If Trump is re-elected, he will decouple the US from China the day he wins, assuming no deal is struck before then.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Low vol, low volatility Tuesday, things should pick up in the 2nd half of the week. In the meantime, Apple has launched its new Apple Pro desktop compute starting at $6,000 but they'll get you for another $5,000 for the screen and here's the catch, the screen has no stand, the stand is sold separately for $1,000. I'd imagine these guys do market research but at a glance, I think Apple is getting too greedy.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump
· Dec 14, 2019

We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder....


Where are the details Donald? So far only Trump calls it a "very large" deal, everyone else sees it as a regurgitation of previous promises that weren't fulfilled.... what a great negotiator! (I mean that for the Chinese who can agree to something already agreed but get something for re-agreeing)

Anyway, the Dec additional tariff is off, so the markets celebrate the removal of some uncertainty, however, I'm not a buyer at current prices.

 

[Overnight]

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump
· Dec 14, 2019

We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder....


Where are the details Donald? So far only Trump calls it a "very large" deal, everyone else sees it as a regurgitation of previous promises that weren't fulfilled.... what a great negotiator! (I mean that for the Chinese who can agree to something already agreed but get something for re-agreeing)

Anyway, the Dec additional tariff is off, so the markets celebrate the removal of some uncertainty, however, I'm not a buyer at current prices.

I agree, I am still too skittish without a "signed" trade deal. I sold early last night on a swing. So, the RTH went much higher...Mreh. But I have been burned on these "promises" before. I just cannot trust this asshole.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Speaking of integrity... came across this Chinese knock-off external Samsung 500GB SSD selling for $50

Note the 2 nuts to give it the right weight, the memory card is not a 500GB but a 128MB card hacked to overwrite data when the 128MB limit is reached. Very dishonest but Ingenious! (possibly a representation of the phase 1 agreement on the Chinese side... Looks authentic on the outside, much smoke & mirrors inside, inner repeated regurgitation reached the external claim)

 

[FXtrader8911]

I sold early last night on a swing

Not only you, I was holding 2 long contracts on the FTSE100, sold when got to +1.4% up, ended at +2.5%

 

[Overnight]

Not only you, I was holding 2 long contracts on the FTSE100, sold when got to +1.4% up, ended at +2.5%

And the circle keeps turning.

 

[FXtrader8911]

Trump impeached, markets yawn... a bit of a slap in the face for Trump (not the impeachment, the fact markets thought of it as a non-event)

As for the abuse of power Trump was accused off, I think that Nancy is the abuser rather than Trump... I wonder whether Nancy would have acted the same if the front runner Trump defeated in the elections was a man instead of a woman? A lesson for everybody... take something away from a woman and you'll need to look over your shoulder for the rest of your life.

Now, is anyone going to investigate the Bidens? Obvious to me that Hunter, with meagre qualifications and a drug user, could not land a $50k/m job if he did not have ties to the White House through the vice president. So, what did Ukraine want from the Obama administration that the Bidens promised to give?

 

[FXtrader8911]

The Swedish central bank bucked the global trend to lift interest rates out of negative territory. Not that Sweeden has clout, but it is a country that normally does the right things and does them before anyone else. I think the new ECB president will take note of Sweden and possibly think hard on a new agenda for the ECB rather than automatically following Draghi's footsteps.

If the ECB changes course, the FED is likely to reconsider its present course... Powell hasn't a clue on what he's doing but is just following what the majority does, if the ECB raises, Powell is likely to follow.