Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

FXtrader8911 said:
Me too but takes more than one to have a discussion. So far there has been a sell recommendation but noone is discussing it. No agreement, no counter view, not even a question. I'm making an effort here and giving my views, I see some 300 onlookers per day but no contributors. Noone has a view?
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My view on the Dow is to buy when its in an uptrend, bank the profits periodically but immediately set another buy order and then repeat. There's not much to discuss apart from the fine detail.

Plus what to do when the Dow's in a downtrend - at which time I get into cash and wait for the uptrend.
 
FXtrader8911 said:
got out 9pts from the current bottom
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I was looking for that 12235 but sometimes the DAX just pulls back so better to be safe than sorry. I am short again @ 12262 and we did hit the 12235 and dropped right through so now I am looking at 12140. See what happens.

Out @ 12138

That is enough for me today.
 
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NotKnown said:
Out @ 12138
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Nice surprise for me y'day... seems I had 2 short contracts on the DAX since mid-June at 12,426 that got closed at 12,102 on limit order. Need to brush up on my record keeping. Also bought some CAC at 5,490.

Should be interesting sessions for the rest of the week... I got some buy orders at -5% from closing prices, and also have lowered my t/p levels on some shorts, see how it goes after Powell's speech, my view it that "sell the news" will play-out, not clear by how much but probably more than traders are anticipating, especially if Powell puts his foot in his mouth as usually does when speaking off-script, his ignorance has a tendency to shine through.

I rather miss Greenspan's days when the Fed just did things without saying anything thus avoiding the circus that started with Bernanke and expanded to a 3 ring gala show with Powell.
 
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How many positions are you usually holding? Not much happening on the DAX tonight. Just small trades. Just had a look at the UK market. Should have been watching that one!!
 
NotKnown said:
Not much happening on the DAX tonight
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Cash DAX closed before Powell put his foot in his mouth so missed the fireworks... A 200pt gap on cash open is in order.

The FTSE100 is always more interesting, it is in the unique position of listing many multi-nationals not necessarily based in the UK so it's price action differs from that of the EU. Much more difficult to trade on fundamentals but interesting none the less.

Positions? trying to keep them under 100... If I could find a way to auto-port my platform's feed into the spreadsheets it would eliminate errors and then I could comfortably go higher, but as it is, 100 is the threashhold for easy management without too many errors.
 
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I think the trigger's been pulled... My call was by Sept but this will do. I get the feeling that Powell knew what was coming, he specifically mentioned trade escalation as a reason so he must have known. Of course, his communication was so pitifull that this wasn't noticed because he said everything and contradicted himself on everything... so who's to know what was correct. The guy's a clown, listening to him, was like he was trying to explain why the internal combustion engine is more efficient than the external combustion engines it replaced... he has no clue on economics, hasn't a clue on why he's doing things and so hasn't a clue on how to explain the Fed's actions... Resign please, America needs a more qualified person in that job, not a flip-flop with no clue on what they're doing.

How far can we go? I think that there will be many individual stocks reaching the Dec lows (CAT being a candidate), whether there is enough to bring the indices to that level is to be seen, but we are in for a sizable correction followed by a faily quick recovery. My strategy to be net short in the US is finally paying dividends. I do not rule-out a failed rally before the big dip.
 
Looking at the S&P500, a failed rally from Fri 2,914 low can't be ruled out but my view is that such rally will fail and levels below 2,791 are likely to be seen before the bull run resumes, in fact, smarter people than me see 2,720 as being a normal correction.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/...n-the-sp-while-markets-wrap-a-rough-week.html

If you are a day trader trading the moment, these levels are neither here nor there, hoewever, if trading on a strategy, pivot levels are what sets the trade while intraday movements become less important. My view and play is to unwind my existing shorts as new relative lows are made and get into a long at each unwind, by 2,791 on the S&P I should then be net long although the probability to reach lower levels is high, if so, I'll buy more as 3,100 by year-end is probable.
 
Last week saw strength in the US dollar and Japanese Yen despite the rate cut, also rising gold price and record lows for bond yields indicate rising risk aversion. Asian session US Futures and an elevated VIX indicate a lower open for Monday.
 
t/p on 20 x 28,000 HSI short contracts at 26,384, one of my better single trades in a month.

Just went NIK225 long at 20,600 with a 22,005 t/p target
 
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