I for one don't buy knock-off stuff, for me is like supporting the thief that stole... like buying stolen property.
Trading the Indices on Fundamentals
- Thread starter FXtrader8911
- Start date
I agree with you on the principle. But do most Americans? Nah. They want their cheep shit.
If you want a bead on what the American consumer is willing to pay, you need to hang around retail outlets and look at/read/listen the consumer. This holiday season would be perfect.
Unfortunately, I have not worked that sector for over a decade, but I can tell you, you can glean bits when you work the retail floor.
Unfortunately, I have not worked that sector for over a decade, but I can tell you, you can glean bits when you work the retail floor.
Yes, agree. That's why I said an astute Trump would do things differently... selective taxation, not blanket tariffs.. if some components are made in China or assembled in China then no tariffs on that as long as it's not the complete finished product being imported, this applies more to car components than iPhones (iPhones would not cost much more, Apple might make less profit though.. indeed, some Apple books are fully made in Texas and sell for the same price as the ones made in China). Production of small, high value (and high volume) products such as the iPhone can be be almost fully automated so why go to China at all?
The story goes something like this... Jobs designed the iPhone that required one particular type of screw that he could not get in the USA, so he started sending the parts to be assembled in China that had the special screws. Things grew to the point that just about the whole phone was then made in China... A choice, not necessity considering the mark-up price.
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Yeah, I've seen clips of frantic shoppers fighting over a bargain, but having owned a factory, I see things from the other side... R&D is difficult & expensive stuff, some engineers give years of their life perfecting just one thing, IP must be protected. If the American consumer must be retrained through lack of options (unavailability of knock-offs), they'll survive, and get used to buying genuine, quality widgets.
What you said ticked my curiosity so did some research... Someone did, in fact, cost all the components and assembly times of the iPhone and concluded that an iPhone fully manufactured and assembled in the USA would cost Apple $400 more i.e. the cost price to Apple of a "made in America" iPhone would be $850. The guy emphasized that this is based on the manual assembly as is done in China, adding that, in any case, there are not enough unskilled people in the USA to manually assemble the phones, but, robot assembly is feasible and much less costly concluding that with Automation, the price difference to Apple would be reduced from $400 to less than $150. The fugues become credible when one considers that SAMSUNG is assembling its S phones in Newberry County, South Carolina.
It is also to be noted that the largest "made in America" car is the TOYOTA Camry, the next largest is the MERCEDES E class.
It looks like foreign manufacturers are putting the American manufacturers to shame, they have no difficulty selling & making profits with stuff having the "made in America" logo on them. Americans need to pick-up their game and listen to Trump! "Make it here guys and use American technology to lower your costs"
I said it before... Apple (and Tesla) are badly managed companies despite the exceptional products they produce.
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My view is that this pending mini-deal will get done and Trump will give away much more than he gains. The real test will come later and how the enforcement process is formulated. The likelihood of China sticking to any agreement beyond some commodity purchase is very slim. They didn't honour an agreements with the WTO, nor the South China sea pact, nor even with the British over Hongkong, so what makes anybody think that an agreement with the USA will be honoured. In all other agreements, China agreed so as to get something they wanted then cited Interference in their sovereignty as a reason for not keeping their side of it.
I believe most CEO's are astute enough not be suckered by an impulsive Trump and an agreement that might not hold, they will want to see how things play-out, not least whether Trump remains President and if not, who will be. i.e.the indecision and expansion paralysis will continue for some time effecting PE for Q4, 2020 Q1 and probably beyond. I expect the USA will struggle to achieve much more than 1% growth for a while... low enough and close enough to recession territory to bring market players down to earth, in my view a correction is likely.
My long term strategy did not play-out... I was expecting a correction in Sep then a year-end recovery. Now, my view is that when the correction happens, markets will not recover for some time. As I am already net short so I'll remain short but will now remove many of my limit buy orders and re-impose these after markets have stabilized. While waiting for sentiment to change, I'll day trade on the volatility.
I believe most CEO's are astute enough not be suckered by an impulsive Trump and an agreement that might not hold, they will want to see how things play-out, not least whether Trump remains President and if not, who will be. i.e.the indecision and expansion paralysis will continue for some time effecting PE for Q4, 2020 Q1 and probably beyond. I expect the USA will struggle to achieve much more than 1% growth for a while... low enough and close enough to recession territory to bring market players down to earth, in my view a correction is likely.
My long term strategy did not play-out... I was expecting a correction in Sep then a year-end recovery. Now, my view is that when the correction happens, markets will not recover for some time. As I am already net short so I'll remain short but will now remove many of my limit buy orders and re-impose these after markets have stabilized. While waiting for sentiment to change, I'll day trade on the volatility.
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Another high on the US markets, this was achieved despite the Chinese pouring cold water on Kudlow's claims that the deal was in the final stages and Trump himself saying nothing on the matter. So, we have trade remaining an overhang, corporate earnings not improving and a weakened economy, yet we have new highs.
Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital, offered an explanation for this... he said, Stocks are getting a boost thanks to investors fear of missing out, noting that US Equities have seen about $9.5 billion in net inflows.
Is this the classic scenario of the mom&pop retail investor getting sucked in at the top? A wait and see approach might be the best strategy for smart money. EU markets did not participate in the euphoria and were all down.
Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital, offered an explanation for this... he said, Stocks are getting a boost thanks to investors fear of missing out, noting that US Equities have seen about $9.5 billion in net inflows.
Is this the classic scenario of the mom&pop retail investor getting sucked in at the top? A wait and see approach might be the best strategy for smart money. EU markets did not participate in the euphoria and were all down.
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The Russell 2000 not having the high flyers in it is probably a better indicator of where markets should be. It is 9% off it's high having fallen 1.2% so far this month.
Yes, there was a report of FOMO money now coming into the market, starting in first week of November. All the little guys now flocking in because of the tantalizing taste of forever-up. Took them a year to take the bait.