Trading (the) Holy Grail

Trade only trendline breaks that coincide with major price and time pivots. Looks like it's the only "Grail" so far that's been working in this market environment.
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

The first question may be, What does the Holy Grail mean to you?

My answer would be: A trading system that never loses: and that is often flat.

No, I've never seen a system with this performance, it is just my definition.

An alternate answer would be a trading system that net-gains X-% per year, year after year consistently.
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your first answer amounts to riskless arbitrage; does exist (for short periods of time), I guess.
 
Quote from nononsense:

A system that makes money for you while you sleep.
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I second that... Let me add to this a system that is positively correlated with your sleeping time...
 
I don't think 7.5% +/yr is anything like a holygrail. That's a typical 'investment' and you'll get that if you invest in a balanced stock portfolio rather than 'trading', if you do it over the long term in almost any stock market.

For me, holy grail would be something like 500% p.a. with minimum stress i.e. drawdowns causing cashflow problems and casual monitoring of system as you believe there is no need to fade any decisions.

Don't want to be defeatist, but I think it's an order that is extremely tall. Realistically, it's your ability to manage your decisions and adapt to fundamental changes that makes you a star. There are a set of money management rules that you can create in a system with OCCASSIONAL justification for breaking them but I don't see how you can formalise a decision making model based on fundametals. Please let me know if you figure out a way of doing it though!!!
 
Quote from let it run:

I don't think 7.5% +/yr is anything like a holygrail. That's a typical 'investment' and you'll get that if you invest in a balanced stock portfolio rather than 'trading', if you do it over the long term in almost any stock market.
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If this system has a -1% maxdrawdown, it IS very good. Just leverage it...
 
Quote from science_trader:

If this system has a -1% maxdrawdown, it IS very good. Just leverage it...
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Well I have got a portfolio of 'investment stocks' that's been returning over 12% on average over the last 3 years but I haven't got the cash to up the size of it to make this my only source of income. I've been really lucky with some of the shares and I'd be surprised if this return can be sustained but if I add this to my 'trading' portfolio, I'd be gutted if I couldn't clear over 20%. Could you PM me how you'd go about turning this into something that gives me the opportunity to lie on the beach counting money rather than watching Alan Greenspan/Trichet all the time...
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

The first question may be, What does the Holy Grail mean to you?
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I don't believe in the "never lose" system. But I do believe systems can be designed as net-positive in expectation. So the HG would be a net-positive system that tells me what my most likely expectation on the next trade would be so I could do optimal position sizing with that info.
 
Quote from MoralHazard:

your first answer amounts to riskless arbitrage; does exist (for short periods of time), I guess.
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well... I been running a few multi-currency pair arbitrage set-ups on demo accounts (different variations) and so far, while they've been profitable, their returns have been pathetic and they are not exactly without risks - though so far I've booked all wins, I can see where there could be future losses.

either they are not the HG or the structures need more work.

It makes me reconsider the term "riskless arbitrage."
 
I have a holy grail...........become a broker, everytime there is a trade you will make commissions. Not bad after all!
 
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