Trading the Gooniverse...

So here we go...I'm long some IWM puts with the goal of a short term breakdown. QQQQ, SPY, and IWM are all overbought, but QQQQ and SPY are in a very well defined uptrend and the IWM seems to have lost a bit more steam when compared to the other two.

Looking for a bit of a break to the downside ($57-ish at first) over the next couple of days.

Stop is tighter than normal (1ATR vs. 2) since market seems to want to rally for no apparent reason at any time. Stop in the area above recent resistance...Heavier resistance around the $62-63 level

As usual, I'm sized to limit my loss to <1%.
 
And here's the fill:
BOT IWM 100 JAN 10 60 PUT @2.57 NYSE, IWM MARK 59.655

(I edit out my position sizes...fill message/format is from emails I get from ThinkOrSwim when an order executes)
 
RESULTS
IWM gapped up on this one so I'm out with a small 1R loss.

Jobs report was (in relative terms) positive in that we only lost 100k or so last month.

LESSONS LEARNED:
  • Don't trade through jobs report (1st Fri of every month) or put 50% on before and 50% on after
  • Put stop in immediately after opening position
Market update at 10:30ET: Market gapped up at the open and ran up, but it's already starting to close so weakness is still present.
 
SHORT TRADE: IWM
Here's the fill:
BOT IWM 100 JAN 10 60 PUT @2.57 CBOE, IWM MARK 59.74.

Stop: Usual 2ATR
Size: Usual <1% Risk (about 0.5%)
Target: Same as before. 1st is $57-ish, 2nd is $55 area.

Back in to the IWM position based on general market weakness. I've been noticing that very good signals can result from re-entering a position after you are stopped out and the underlying then quickly resumes it's expected move. It seems like the players shake out the weak hands and build a better position before they hammer it in the direction they intended.
 
COMMENT
Note to self...you'd think that since I have a math minor that'd I'd be able to add. Entered wrong stop in for IWM trade, which actually would not have been stopped out. Oh well. Next time be observant.
 
LONG: AUY
Taking a nibble here with a tight stop. Will add to position as we show some signs of reversal (as long as stop isn't hit)
Oversold in an uptrend with a gap down this morning that filled quickly.

The Fill:
BOT +1 AUY 100 APR 10 12 CALL @1.94 AMEX, AUY MARK 12.58,
 
LONG TRADES: PCU, AMZN, USO, AAPL
Beginning to nibble here with small positions:
AMZN = strong uptrend. Positive on a general market down day.
PCU = uptrend and approaching support.
USO = oversold and approaching support. More speculative.
AAPL = Monster uptrend, oversold and approaching support. More speculative since it is below the 10/20/30 MA band, but should bounce with the general market
 
LONG TRADE: VLO MAR 17/18 VERTICAL
VLO is near decent support and has held up fairly well over the last week. Some resistance at 17 & 18, but it doesn't have far to move. A bit less risk with the slightly OTM spread, but MAR expiration gives lots of time to move.

Here's the fill:
BOT +2 VERTICAL VLO 100 MAR 10 17/18 CALL @.34 ISE, VLO MARK 16.21

Entered with limit order to shave a few cents off the cost.
 
SHORT TRADE: CEPH
Short at $58.90...Stop=$60-ish. Targeting the $54-$56 area. Did this one with shares, since we might not see too much action between now and the new year, so I didn't want to be exposed to time decay.

UPDATE
Still holding PCU, USO, AUY.
Exited AAPL for about +6 (sold at $198...should have just sold at the open)
 
LONG TRADE: SVU
Small nibble here with an ultra wide stop with small position to give this one some room.
[PROS]
  • Nearing support on daily and weekly.
  • Unfilled gap around $14.25 area.
[CONS]
  • Strong downtrend
 
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