Trading the E-Minis with 5-18 day holds.

Quote from ElectricSavant:


I do not feel comfortable advertising a signal service in ET. I will post the link, but I cannot comment too much on it....as I do not want to provide advertising for them. I have been warned and do not want to get into it. I value my membership to this community.

http://www.stockmarkettimer.com

I do not recommend them and I mainly read their newsletter. I am not a big believer in signal services, but this is more than that.
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Quote from ElectricSavant:


Included in this newsletter is a Pivot Point/RSI enhanced system. I use it to trade the NQ with 3-10 day holds.
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Apparently their Pivot Point is very impressive, according to the performance report page.

However it seems to me, when last time I visited the site, their day trading performance was not quite profitable at all, and the performance page for day trading now cannot be found on the site as at today.

Do you understand why, if both their systems should be similarly good?

:confused:
 
Michael:
Off the top of my head, I have to say that your problem will not be finding a non-correllated market, but finding an edge of the same quality as the one you have with your signal provider. You know, you can test the nature of the correllation by using one of several tests, including the Spearman Statistical Technique. To do this simple test, you make a list of data on a daily or weekly basis, and compare how the two data sets "move". For instance if two markets move in exactly the same way every day for a year, you would have a perfect (1.0) correllation. One way to do this test is Step 1... find a user of AIQ Trading Expert for Windows. It has the Spearman Function integrated in the program. Just get someone to test markets for you. Step 2...find the hedge ratio (because you won't find a perfect hedge) then Step 3. Find a trading edge comparable to the one you (seem to) have now. If you find a market with an .8 correllation for instance, you might want to devote a trading account of 80% the size of your current account, AND you would want to reduce your bet size by 20% when you trade that market. Hope this points you in the right direction. Regards, Steve46
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:


I have noticed that when I am short the market can bounce back and forth during the hold time (5-18 days) and I see many opportunities to "add to" at better than signal prices.

I have confidence in the signal (85% winrate due to the longer type of hold time) so it really does not bother me when the trade turns against me....rather its an opportunity to "add to"....some might say this is a losing mentality...but I think it is signal and methodology dependant.
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2 cents:

I would try to say: Most likely it would be a reasonably high probability opportunity. :confused:
 
They implore different methodolgies for the various systems they have. I follow the the Pivot Points system.

The Day trading system is a completely different system.

The Swing trading System is a completely different system.

I use the daily commentary and trade accordingly from the general guidlines. The newsletter is very insightful and indicates if higher highs or lower lows are to be expected the next trading day.

I find the longer hold from the Pivot Points gives me the direction I need for confidence, if I choose to scalp during the day. If Short bias in Pivot then sell the rallies.

The general thought is to get a longer term time frame bias and trade daily that direction. I use the signals to help with this.

Michael B.


Quote from OddTrader:





Apparently their Pivot Point is very impressive, according to the performance report page.

However it seems to me, when last time I visited the site, their day trading performance was not quite profitable at all, and the performance page for day trading now cannot be found on the site as at today.

Do you understand why, if both their systems should be similarly good?

:confused:
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A my track user might have those AIQ charts if I remember correctly.

Thanks Steve for your help..I do need a hedge for this longer type hold when it turns against me. When half way through the signal if I am still minus....it would be a good time to put on the hedge.

Michael B.


Quote from steve46:

Michael:
Off the top of my head, I have to say that your problem will not be finding a non-correllated market, but finding an edge of the same quality as the one you have with your signal provider. You know, you can test the nature of the correllation by using one of several tests, including the Spearman Statistical Technique. To do this simple test, you make a list of data on a daily or weekly basis, and compare how the two data sets "move". For instance if two markets move in exactly the same way every day for a year, you would have a perfect (1.0) correllation. One way to do this test is Step 1... find a user of AIQ Trading Expert for Windows. It has the Spearman Function integrated in the program. Just get someone to test markets for you. Step 2...find the hedge ratio (because you won't find a perfect hedge) then Step 3. Find a trading edge comparable to the one you (seem to) have now. If you find a market with an .8 correllation for instance, you might want to devote a trading account of 80% the size of your current account, AND you would want to reduce your bet size by 20% when you trade that market. Hope this points you in the right direction. Regards, Steve46
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

They implore different methodolgies for the various systems they have. I follow the the Pivot Points system.

The Day trading system is a completely different system.

The Swing trading System is a completely different system.
More...

Interesting! :confused:
 
The Swing Trading system not working to well. lately....Did you see that? This validates what an earlier poster said about how systems come and go.....

I do not blindly follow systems...as I have my friends here at ET to guide me. :)

Michael B.





Quote from OddTrader:



Interesting! :confused:
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Quote from ElectricSavant:

The Swing Trading system not working to well. lately....Did you see that?
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Actually, I have to confess that I'm very weak in comprehending any major differences between:

Their Pivoy Points system (a seemingly very good swing system) of an outstanding winrate around 80%,

and

The Swing Trading system of a poor winrate around 50%,

when they both are developed by the same group of developers. :confused:

Q

A pivot point is defined in retrospect as the top and bottom of each new swing. (Kaufman, Trading Systems and Methods)

UQ

 
One holds for one day and the other holds for 8-19 days.

Michael B.




Quote from OddTrader:



Actually, I have to confess that I'm very weak in comprehending any major differences between:

Their Pivoy Points system (a seemingly very good swing system) of an outstanding winrate around 80%,

and

The Swing Trading system of a poor winrate around 50%,

when they both are developed by the same group of developers. :confused:

Q

A pivot point is defined in retrospect as the top and bottom of each new swing. (Kaufman, Trading Systems and Methods)

UQ
More...
 
Quote from OddTrader:


Their Pivoy Points system (a seemingly very good swing system) of an outstanding winrate around 80%,

and

The Swing Trading system of a poor winrate around 50%,

More...

Perhaps now you would have a good reason for hedging. :D
 
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