Trading the CL (price action)
- Thread starter moreina
- Start date
How it unfolded
A closer examination of the action between 5,6,7 and what I was looking at. Action before this showed no one had yet "flipped" a swing point where there was concentrated action. So although there are a few swing points broken, those swing points didn't have active participants. the flip of 6, and subsequent retest at 7, gave me some directional sense.
- Traders reject opening S and the box MP and push through R (green dashed).
- Selling here and price retests opening S.
- Buyers step in. So far so good, looks like a bullish movement is developing and a swing forms.
- Selling at the MP. This causes price to make a lower low and tests the ONL. Hmmm.... ok we want to see if support at 1 or 3 is going to gel flipped.
- Buyers step in at the ONL.
- Sellers in at the support point at 3. Looking like it's going to flip after all, but there's a last minute save and buyers instead flip resistance.
- Retest of R and traders participate. R flipped to S. Price should make a serious attempt to go somewhere from here.
- Selling participation and a lower high, at the same level as 2. Could be a range forming here. Buyers are present at the lower swing low but price proceeds to make an even lower low after that. We now have the opposite situation as in 6.
- Buyers are in. Last chance. If there’s some sort of rejection at the level at 2 then we’re definitely ranging.
- Rejection. Ranging.
A closer examination of the action between 5,6,7 and what I was looking at. Action before this showed no one had yet "flipped" a swing point where there was concentrated action. So although there are a few swing points broken, those swing points didn't have active participants. the flip of 6, and subsequent retest at 7, gave me some directional sense.
thank you for your analysis... just a couple of questions:
MP.. is that mid point of the last move or a longer timeframe chart or onh/onl etc? have you found that significant enough to trade from.
ONL/ONH... looks like overnight high/low.. if so do you look at those as support/resistance that will either break through or reverse? if other that that, what do you use them for. have you found them consistent enough to trade from.
thanks in advance
toucan
MP.. is that mid point of the last move or a longer timeframe chart or onh/onl etc? have you found that significant enough to trade from.
ONL/ONH... looks like overnight high/low.. if so do you look at those as support/resistance that will either break through or reverse? if other that that, what do you use them for. have you found them consistent enough to trade from.
thanks in advance
toucan
hey. Yes MP means mid point, though I don’t use the typical MP that most people do, which is the 50% RET of the dominant side. I use the the MP of the weaker side, I’ve found that CL will often bounce there for a continuation of the trend. I start measuring them when substantial S/R develops. So in a downtrend, when some serious S starts to form and is subsequently breached, I take the 50% between S and R. The other MP I use is a range MP, for the same purpose, trend continuation.
ONHL is overnight high and low. I’ve found that they regularly become hourly tops and bottoms so yes I watch for particular action there. Typically if price can’t follow through after breaching or if it can only make a one-legged follow through it usually means something’s up.
Previous post should have read Oct 2 premarket...
How it unfolded.
Price opens and immediately forms an upper level right where the ONH is.
1. Buyers make an attempt to rally but sellers step in and reject the previous swing with buying activity. Swing flip. We enter short here. Price falls for a bit but then forms a buying wave. No buying activity but we prefer to exit and re-enter.
2. Sellers come in at the top with no buyers beneath. We re-enter the short. This goes all the way to the ONL.
3. Traders reject the ONL and reverse the last selling swing. We initiate a long here and fully exit as what appears to be a strong selling wave forms.
4. Price actually manages to get all the way to the previous level formed at 2 where we see another rejection with selling activity. We enter short but close as price starts to chop around.
5. Price falls out of the box then rebounds to the chop MP. As sellers participate we re-enter short. This goes to the premarket range MP, turned level, and we exit as the last selling swing is breached. No buying activity below though.
6. Once again a rejection at the level at 2. We enter this a bit prematurely and get stopped out on our first attempt but promptly re-enter on the lower swing. We bail as price seems to stall.
7. Price falls down a bit then rallies, again seemingly with no participation. We re-enter short. In hindsight, as price had failed to breach the previous bottom formed by 5, we shouldn't have shorted but we lost track of the bigger picture. Stop out.
8. Buyers are flipping sellers. We enter long. This goes all the way to ONH where we exit at a rejection.
Chop city today but we managed to get a nice return on our trades.
How it unfolded.
Price opens and immediately forms an upper level right where the ONH is.
1. Buyers make an attempt to rally but sellers step in and reject the previous swing with buying activity. Swing flip. We enter short here. Price falls for a bit but then forms a buying wave. No buying activity but we prefer to exit and re-enter.
2. Sellers come in at the top with no buyers beneath. We re-enter the short. This goes all the way to the ONL.
3. Traders reject the ONL and reverse the last selling swing. We initiate a long here and fully exit as what appears to be a strong selling wave forms.
4. Price actually manages to get all the way to the previous level formed at 2 where we see another rejection with selling activity. We enter short but close as price starts to chop around.
5. Price falls out of the box then rebounds to the chop MP. As sellers participate we re-enter short. This goes to the premarket range MP, turned level, and we exit as the last selling swing is breached. No buying activity below though.
6. Once again a rejection at the level at 2. We enter this a bit prematurely and get stopped out on our first attempt but promptly re-enter on the lower swing. We bail as price seems to stall.
7. Price falls down a bit then rallies, again seemingly with no participation. We re-enter short. In hindsight, as price had failed to breach the previous bottom formed by 5, we shouldn't have shorted but we lost track of the bigger picture. Stop out.
8. Buyers are flipping sellers. We enter long. This goes all the way to ONH where we exit at a rejection.
Chop city today but we managed to get a nice return on our trades.
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Hourly still not much momo. Besides price itself I like ROC - since it is just price compared to itself at some point in the past, in this case 12 period or 6 hours.
So above 100 or positive lately but not very much. What you would expect for most of the time of the O/N trading session.
So above 100 or positive lately but not very much. What you would expect for most of the time of the O/N trading session.
ROC = Rate of Change. My preference is percentage basis so price / price [x bars ago].
Then although it is no necessary I also plot a MA (dotted line) of ROC - of the same length.