Collective2 is a good place to shop for a system. They give you the stats and allow others to critique the systems, no holds barred.
trading systems vendor?
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Yes and no. they definitely have the survivor bias problem. That said there are some systems there with a nice profit curve and history going back 3-4 years, some of them daytrading. Very unlikely to be just luck, they are solid systems. Expensive though.....
My point is that no system vendor knows beforehand which ones of his systems will be profitable and since all of SS systems are profitable is a very good indication that this vendor has some decent edge.
On SR a vendor cannot delete his non-profitable systems and only show the profitable ones.
But yes, the survivor bias problem still exists
It applies to everone. Very few systems work. That is why most try to sell them. It didn't say every system didn't work, there are a few that do.
Regardless, the offers on that were far less than it was worth. Now, did you have a point? Or are you trying to demonstrate that you need to take Set Theory 201?
they are all profitable because they all use the same logic. Look at their equity curves - most rise and fall with excellent coherence.
so basically, you can collapse them all into one system. And then, they are on top most likely due to bias.
Check back with them in 9 months. They most likely will have randomized. And without comprehensive stats such as on C2, it is hard to tell if they are using hold&hope or averaging down. It is hard to respect SR results. I followed one of their "featured" systems a while back out of curiosity. The results did NOT seem like their published results at all. They rose, the signals I received were essentially random, with some Hold&Hoping that would never appear in the published SR record.
Maybe because you can't read :
"Results are shown based on our real-time simulated tracking engine and do not take into effect monthly subscription fees and commissions. Slippage is included in the results shown as market and limit orders execution is simulated using worst case scenario based on bid/ask prices, level 2 data and delays."
If I include commissions for the system I subscribed, results match very closely
I don't think they are expensive. If you gave your money to a hedge fund manager, he would take a 2% management fee and 20% of the profits.
However, as a rule of thumb, don't pay more than 10% of the monthly profits after commission for a system on Collective2.
This is the reason why :
" Slippage is included in the results shown as market and limit orders execution is simulated using worst case scenario based on bid/ask prices, level 2 data and delays."
http://www.strategyxchange.com/Home.asp