trading stats related to fridays selloff

[azukar]

Quote from scriabinop23:

His original post called a move from 1458 close on ES. There was only 20 pts of downside from there. Upside was 40 pts. (low = 1437, target = 1501).

1:2 risk reward.

Yeah, and after that call failed he called it again and then the big dump came.

 

[azukar]

Quote from scriabinop23:

His original post called a move from 1458 close on ES. There was only 20 pts of downside from there. Upside was 40 pts. (low = 1437, target = 1501).

1:2 risk reward.

First call using ES, 1481 close to 1442 low. Second call, 1482 close to 1432 low.

But this is a pointless conversation for many reasons. First, he didn't trade this or anything else. For argument's sake though let's assume he did. Under that scenario we still don't know where the trade was wrong/where the stop was. Best case it was 1 tick under the 1432 low which would be the wildest stroke of luck.
Worse case.....55 points, 65 points, 75 points......?

But rather than arguing with me why don't you take his next 'call' yourself, don't use a stop, and then come back and let us know how it worked out.

 

[jasonjm]

well, im re-igniting my stats thread, since I love market stats so much....

Here is my new stat, which I am trading right now. Using daily data since 1980, and my own proprietary volatility and moving averages, my system called a setup which it has only seen 18 times since 1980.

Basically at 1400 ES, it wanted to start considering a long.

The average buy point was 4.5% below initial alert.
Tonight we hit pretty much 9% under.

of these 18 setups that occured, if you bought in at the 4.5% level, with 12 months, the market would have traded on average 23.5% higher since your entry.

the worst 12 month period was 7% higher and the best was 51% higher.