trading stats related to fridays selloff

[azukar]

Quote from scriabinop23:

interesting chart, but those intersection points seem arbitrary. if I were looking at that chart, i would mark the change of direction points much earlier ...

It's not a timing chart....it's a warning chart. Price always (and only) provides the timing. Plus they are not aribtrary, they're just what the market(s) has done.

99.9% of the time it tells you nothing or simply confirms the current trend, but every few years it provides an early warning to major trend changes.

From here you can use VIX along with other correlations that have existed during the current cycle for additional confirmation (if you want), and we have several of them right now. Nobody knows what will happen next, but I suspect the next dip the "dip buyers" buy is going to prove problematic.

 

[jasonjm]

are those new all time highs im seeing on the chinese market?

just nuts, we have a crash selloff, they make new highs

lol

 

[MattF]

sell off here, buy over there

 

[azukar]

Quote from jasonjm:

are those new all time highs im seeing on the chinese market?

just nuts, we have a crash selloff, they make new highs

lol

I think you'll find that using various stock indexes to confirm each other is a flawed approach, at least when it comes to the bigger picture stuff. For example, in 2000 the Dow peaked in January while the Naz peaked 2 months later in March.

 

[wee man]

Quote from NihabaAshi:

Unfortunately the system designers, backtesters or staticians will show up and say that's not enough data to make the info useful.

I recently had someone tell me that a price pattern that appeared every year since 1990 and only failed twice wasn't useful info to trade.

In fact, he used the word meaningless and then said that I was just lucky.

I guess if it doesn't work 100% of the time, it has no merits.

I'm making fun of the TA don't work types.



Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term

Care to share the method?

 

[jasonjm]

lets see how this goes....

but so far, the trading stats are playing out I posted on friday seem to be playing out

3 weeks to reach 1501, good start on day 1 hehehe

and the 1% hurdle has already been met

so the 9/9 now becomes 10/10 for the 1% hurdle

 

[jasonjm]

here we go, 1501 coming

that was the bottom today, for a relief rally within 12 trading days to 1501 target

 

[jasonjm]

well, I hope someone made money off my stats

target of 1501 was hit today, with lots of time to spare

the probably of success on this setup for a 3% move is now 90% and a 1% move is 100%

I will revive the thread in a year or 2 from now when the setup probably arises again

 

[azukar]

Quote from jasonjm:

well, I hope someone made money off my stats

target of 1501 was hit today, with lots of time to spare

the probably of success on this setup for a 3% move is now 90% and a 1% move is 100%

I will revive the thread in a year or 2 from now when the setup probably arises again

The only person that matters when it comes to making money off your posts is YOU.

So far though you haven't given any entry points or stops, and the last time you called a bottom the Dow lost 286 the next day with the SPX/RUT breaking their recent lows.

Stats are like theories - they sound great on paper but usually unravel when the light of reality is shown upon them. Trading is also easy when done on paper and/or when the use of stops is, er um, optional.

 

[jasonjm]

Quote from azukar:

The only person that matters when it comes to making money off your posts is YOU.

So far though you haven't given any entry points or stops, and the last time you called a bottom the Dow lost 286 the next day with the SPX/RUT breaking their recent lows.

Stats are like theories - they sound great on paper but usually unravel when the light of reality is shown upon them. Trading is also easy when done on paper and/or when the use of stops is, er um, optional.

After I posted this, anyone who wanted had 4 TRADING DAYS to enter long at less than 3% of the target price

the exact exit was called to the point, 1501 on SPX

I dont even watch the dow for one second of any day of any year, I don't care where its trading.... so if I posted on the DOW its news to me

as for you nonsense on stops - yeah i trade without stops....
Try use a call to trade a setup like this next time, or a low leverage 1:1 trade with 10% of your account size or similar, 2 revolutionary ideas for you I am guessing....

I posted this in the spirit of sharing some facts I had uncovered, why would I post anything if all I cared about was "MY OWN TRADES" as you put it, that would be a waste of my time, be easier to post nothing then.

You and the likes of you are the reason ET has degenerated into 99% garbage.