Trading SPY vs S&P Futures

$1M is sufficient to survive a 10-tic drawdown on ES with 282 contracts? Let's calculate it using IB's numbers, since they are quite popular 'round these parts.

IB's initial overnight margin on ES is $7588.43 per ct. At 282 contracts that's ~$447,900 required just to stay in. Now what happens if...

Wait a moment, just looked further into IB's margin structure. I now can make neither heads nor tails out of it. Forget it.

Juts go ahead and lose 32K on 282 contracts if you get a 10-tic drop. *shrugs*
Math doesn't make sense.
 
Here's a pit trading million $ ticks during the 87 crash - keep in mind that's in 87, which today would be close to 2.2 million per tick.

 
Good ol' Borselino, couldn't manipulate the market (his words at 35:30) anymore and left in 2003. Now he is peddling courses online....
 
Good ol' Borselino, couldn't manipulate the market (his words at 35:30) anymore and left in 2003.
Now he is peddling courses online....

Very few people are actual real 'traders' in my opinion, I kind of like to think of them as race car drivers.
And when the chickens come home to roost...they become used car salesmen o_O:vomit:

Trading successfully, over the long run, is kind of a unique...relatively rare talent
I'm talking about real trading for real gains; not pussy diversified investing.

It's like being a soldier or a gang member...the odds are definitely stacked against you surviving.

Most people, or so-called traders, on Wall St are just over-glorified order processors. or some other dim-witted role.
 
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Very true. However, I think that with "real" traders, there is a kind of re-inventing the wheel with each new trader coming along. The way of doing things is not passed to another trader. So each time a new "real" trader comes along, it is like rediscovering it all kind of from scratch.
 
Most people, or so-called traders, on Wall St are just over-glorified order processors. or some other dim-witted role.
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They usually get paid no matter what the market does since they are often trading other people's money. Their win rate is closer to 95% - now invert that and you have the retail day trader - now, who are the dim wits?
 
Biggest difference between the is not in commission savings or spread price difference as they are fairly similar, but rather the amount of money required to trade the same position size.

To trade 500 shares of SPY ($113,000 notional value) you need to have 113,000 Dollars or half of that if you use standard 2-1 margin leverage overnight ( most brokers can provide that)

To trade 1 ES contract worth about 113k, you need a little over $5000 in your account.

Thus for a typical retail trader he can trade a much larger position with the ES. Hypothetically about 10-20X larger.

(i am discounting pro shop leverage in this comparison)
Actually I believe you could trade the spy position you could do so with 27k with 4x intraday margin. Or if you had portfolio margin less. But you would need excess of 100k for portfolio margin
 
IMO, when you're starting out with a small account, you pay the $70/month data fees and higher % commissions, and higher taxes to do the SPY, QQQ, IWM, EEM, XLF and GDX. Assuming you need to see tick order flow / tape. Otherwise if just using price and volume methods, then <$5/month in data fees. You do it because losing $100/mo on data and extra commissions is much cheaper than risking $150 to $400 per trade with equivalent volatility in the e-mini futures.

Then it's possible to move up to the 2x levered and then 3x levered ETFs, but you still have to use the 1x levered data because that's where the volume is.

When you have a few years of consistent profits, then you can enjoy CME products with the Globex overnight hours, less than $10/month data fees, 50x leverage, and tax savings capped at 23% and absorb the much wider tick size.

Do I have this all wrong or is this a valid angle on the topic?
 
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