Trading Secrets :)

[cumulative918]

I would definitly break one of these secret rules, Buy high sell low, once I have a loosing trade.

I still need time to understand the relationship between the crowd and trend.

anyway, good job!

 

[Cheese]

There is no crowd.
There is no trend.
There is only hindsight .. for alleged trends and crowds.

For ever purchase there is an equal and opposite sale and vice versa.
Which side is with the trend and which trend is that? Last 15 minutes, last 15 days, last 15 months?

There are upmoves and downmoves .. gyrations (eg Dow index).
Just opportunity and money repeatedly offered ad infinitum.

 

[bitrend]

If we eliminate the fake trend that was created by a manipulation, a few players who artificially created the trend and this kind of trend won't last long since it wasn't a real trend.

For the intrinsic trend, if there is no crowd then there is no trend. The crowd creates the trend or the crowd is the trend. To prove that we need to divide the crowd into two groups, one group for bearish and another group for bullish. If the two groups are equal, meaning that there are enough people that think a stock will go up and enough that think the exact opposite, then there's no trend since the resultant force is zero, simple physical laws. If one group is stronger than another then a trend is on its way.

So The trend is your friend means boarding like the crowd or with the crowd but exiting unlike the crowd.

 

[ATSTRADER]

Quote from cumulative918:

I would definitely break one of these secret rules, Buy high sell low, once I have a loosing trade.

I still need time to understand the relationship between the crowd and trend.

anyway, good job!

To understand the Crowd /Trend relationship, let me bring you Forex market example. As you know the 90% of Forex deals are done between trader and the Market Maker (Forex Dealer)
Imagine that you are looking on the chart and your indicators are showing the Buy signal... At the same time the traders that deal with other Market makers are looking at the same chart, listening to the same news and their indicators are showing the Buy signal too... Now all of these traders Bought, them all of their Marketmakers got into the Short position...
They all start quoting market down, until the traders start selling their Longs back... meanwhile the trend down is developing...
Thus, the Crowd/Trend has inverse relationship
"Secret Rule #8" is proven.
I brought here the Forex example only for one reason, because on the forex your counterparty is clearly marked.
On the other markets (Stocks, Futures) the same mechanism works, just the counterparties are hidden behind the exchanges, regulators, locals and est...

 

[fhl]

Quote from bitrend:

If we eliminate the fake trend that was created by a manipulation, a few players who artificially created the trend and this kind of trend won't last long since it wasn't a real trend.

For the intrinsic trend, if there is no crowd then there is no trend. The crowd creates the trend or the crowd is the trend. To prove that we need to divide the crowd into two groups, one group for bearish and another group for bullish. If the two groups are equal, meaning that there are enough people that think a stock will go up and enough that think the exact opposite, then there's no trend since the resultant force is zero, simple physical laws. If one group is stronger than another then a trend is on its way.

So The trend is your friend means boarding like the crowd or with the crowd but exiting unlike the crowd.

I think the trend is created by either the buyers or sellers being more motivated. However, it may just be one buyer or seller which is more motivated, against a bunch of not so motivated traders on the opposite side, so, is the crowd always with the trend?

 

[cnms2]

Thrusts, retracements, reversals, resumes. When you trade a retracement you trade against the trend.

"Crowd" means "many traders" and it is not related to the trading volume. For any one share / contract bought there's one sold, but not for any one buyer there's one seller. In the "crowed is always wrong" assertion there is an elitist nuance, and most of us like to think that we're smart enough to belong to the elite, but are probably belonging to "a" crowd.

The trend is defined by trading volume more than price action. And the volume is determined by the supply / demand relationship.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Cheese:

There is no crowd.
There is no trend.
There is only hindsight .. for alleged trends and crowds.

For ever purchase there is an equal and opposite sale and vice versa.
Which side is with the trend and which trend is that? Last 15 minutes, last 15 days, last 15 months?

There are upmoves and downmoves .. gyrations (eg Dow index).
Just opportunity and money repeatedly offered ad infinitum.

The crowd is the few thousand traders participating in the Market on any given day.

The Trend is specific to the Chart increment you are trading (see attached [computer generated labeled oscillations] Volume Bar price chart)

Hindsight trading don't exist and isn't real.

Trends exist in real-time and are viable until they reverse. The problem is if you don't define them (Trends) you can't see them or trade them. Those that say they (Trends) don't exist in real-time can't see them because they do not know how to define them but that doesn't mean they aren't actually there.

 

[bitrend]

We need to clarify on the definition of the crowd. The potential buyers/sellers are not yet applied into the equation, meaning that they are not yet considered in the two groups since they are not playing the game yet. According to the definition above we can say that in your example the crowd is just a combination of few buyers and sellers where the massive crowd, who are in the waiting list, will eventually join one of the two groups later if the circumstance permit. Then the real game starts, so does the real trend.

Quote from fhl:

I think the trend is created by either the buyers or sellers being more motivated. However, it may just be one buyer or seller which is more motivated, against a bunch of not so motivated traders on the opposite side, so, is the crowd always with the trend?

 

[bitrend]

And the more we want to think that we belong to the elite, we often end up by making more mistakes than the crowd does. We ended up by exiting too early, taking early small profit since we didn't follow the crowd, we didn't follow the trend and therefore no huge profit.

Quote from cnms2:

and most of us like to think that we're smart enough to belong to the elite, but are probably belonging to "a" crowd.

 

[Cheese]

Higher highs, higher lows in sequence & lower highs/lower lows in sequence are just hindsight reflections of temporary direction. For them to, so-called, 'validate' direction intraday means you've missed many or most of the points before you get started.