Trading Risk on / Risk off

Essentially the indicator places you "one step ahead"

Real Money said:
I'm speechless guys. I just started looking into this and found the proof. Here is my custom indicator that plots the NET ARBITRAGE activity against a BOND/INDEX SPREAD.

View attachment 210224

It's a perfect match. This is completely insane. The indicator is in white with yellow, orange, and red linear regression averages and with a ribbon of aqua simple averages. (the indicator is using data feeds not present on this chart!)

The overlayed series in magenta is a spread of Ultra Long Bonds and the ES front month. It's all starting to make sense now. I have finally found the secret. :sneaky::):D:wtf::rolleyes:
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Real Money said:
I'm speechless guys. I just started looking into this and found the proof. Here is my custom indicator that plots the NET ARBITRAGE activity against a BOND/INDEX SPREAD.

View attachment 210224

It's a perfect match. This is completely insane. The indicator is in white with yellow, orange, and red linear regression averages and with a ribbon of aqua simple averages. (the indicator is using data feeds not present on this chart!)

The overlayed series in magenta is a spread of Ultra Long Bonds and the ES front month. It's all starting to make sense now. I have finally found the secret. :sneaky::):D:wtf::rolleyes:
More...
What is driving the data, RM? (I don't mean the feeds).
I find personally, if I do not know what is driving the data, then I'm flying blind as it where.

Around 14:30 there is some serious divergence. Was there a reason for that?
Cheers!
 
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kellys said:
What is driving the data, RM? (I don't mean the feeds).
I find personally, if I do not know what is driving the data, then I'm flying blind as it where.

Around 14:30 there is some serious divergence. Was there a reason for that?
Cheers!
More...

Yea. It looks like bonds started rallying really hard at that time and the ES was still selling off. But then ES bottomed and started rallying too. Check it out. Whats driving the indicator is the PREMIUM on the NASDAQ and SPX tradable instruments. ES in white and Ultra Bond in red.

Divergence.png
 
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ElectricSavant said:
Essentially the indicator places you "one step ahead"
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Yes, it gives you confidence to short a rally or buy a dip because the trading leads the price moves. I'm measuring the trading through the differential of the CME, NASDAQ, and NYSE quotes and the CBOE real-time index values. Have been building systems focused on this for like 4 months. Totally different level of awareness with real time directional information. Price lags the trade flow.
 
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