Trading NQ via Price Action

[NoDoji]

But if you're waiting for that bar to "close", and looking for an entry below it, then the longer you wait, the further away you are from this rejection and therefore the greater chance of price doing something unexpected. That's how I see it, and that's what I get from everything I've learned thus far.

When I was studying Brooks I thought he was nuts for claiming that 1-min traders were playing with fire and likely losing money. I learned later the hard way (lost 50 ticks in about 10 mins accidentally getting sucked into the 1-min chart one morning) that he's right. It's possible to trade strictly off a 1-min (or 70-tick) chart, and even off micro tick charts, but you are light years away from the level of expertise and experience necessary to do that.

The chance of price doing something unexpected is not related to how far price has moved from a particular level.

The more patient you are in waiting for price confirmation of a setup or a potential signal of a directional price move, the greater the likelihood of price achieving a directional move sufficient to realize your profit goals.

You have so much to learn and you haven't even built a foundation upon which to set up your framework.

Think of a time when you thought you knew something and someone with experience tried to advise you and you ignored them and later on you discovered they were absolutely right. Once you think of that, imagine how nice it would be to be able to go back in time and follow that advice from the start.

Once you feel how great that would be, tell yourself that you're in that place right now and all you have to do is be totally open to building a trader's mindset instead of defending your beliefs.

"The future is that time when you'll wish you had done what you aren't doing now."

 

[k p]

When I was studying Brooks I thought he was nuts for claiming that 1-min traders were playing with fire and likely losing money. I learned later the hard way (lost 50 ticks in about 10 mins accidentally getting sucked into the 1-min chart one morning) that he's right. It's possible to trade strictly off a 1-min (or 70-tick) chart, and even off micro tick charts, but you are light years away from the level of expertise and experience necessary to do that.

The chance of price doing something unexpected is not related to how far price has moved from a particular level.

The more patient you are in waiting for price confirmation of a setup or a potential signal of a directional price move, the greater the likelihood of price achieving a directional move sufficient to realize your profit goals.

You have so much to learn and you haven't even built a foundation upon which to set up your framework.

Think of a time when you thought you knew something and someone with experience tried to advise you and you ignored them and later on you discovered they were absolutely right. Once you think of that, imagine how nice it would be to be able to go back in time and follow that advice from the start.

Once you feel how great that would be, tell yourself that you're in that place right now and all you have to do is be totally open to building a trader's mindset instead of defending your beliefs.

"The future is that time when you'll wish you had done what you aren't doing now."

Hi ND!

So first, I know this feeling you describe well. But sometimes, I think the correct course is to go down the wrong path. I cannot begin to tell you how beneficial losing almost $1000 was to me. I think in some ways, as crazy as it sounds, I'm making myself feel the pain so I don't repeat the mistake. When in my 20 point losing trading, I kept saying to myself that I shouldn't be here, but I clearly didn't feel enough pain yet to get out. Even if your future self could tell your early self the correct course of action, I don't think it would matter... at least not to me.

(As a total tangent... some of the problems with world politics these days is that the western countries are trying to force their way of life onto other countries. People here in the west have died for freedom, and we teach history to make sure that those today understand how it is that we came to have what we have. When we just take this and give it to someone else who hasn't gone through the same process to get it... its often lost on them. In some sick way therefore, I think I can only enjoy the wins once I've had enough with the self inflicted losses.)

You know that phrase.... "You are where you're meant to be"? I accept this wholly because if I could be somewhere different, if I wanted to be somewhere different, I would be there.

Lastly on this topic, I would like to attach a picture that I got off the net somewhere that I think is quite applicable right now.

Ok... moving onto the work of trading.

I don't deny that my experience for trading such a fast moving chart is sorely lacking. And I also don't deny that if the trade is good, then buying or selling above that 1 minute bar is still a great entry. But I can see from my live trades that I'm uncomfortable holding when price turns on me, and worse, I can't do anything about it but wait for the stop to be hit. I have seen that swing points provide a great place to put a stop... but far too often now I have also seen how price penetrates ever so slightly to stop you out, and then take off again without you. Now I could have done some analysis, compiled data about how often this spike happens and how low it goes. Perhaps the low of bar plus 4 ticks would be good for most situations or some other number. But I saw that this just didn't suit me... I just couldn't do the work to compile this data.

Looking into this lower time frame is I think putting me more in the driver's seat. There is no need to wait and see if some stop will be hit... especially if this stop is nothing more than a poke. I have seen these pokes over and over again.

Perfect example is today. Suppose I finally wanted to get into this up move and I notice this little RET here at A and I get in 1 tick above which fills on the next bar. Then I set my stop to the low at B. Now price penetrates this on the next bar, and if my stop was 1 tick below C, then I'm taken out. But when I look at the 5 sec chart... its so obvious that the poke means nothing to my long entry... I see that there is no reason to exit. (Coincidentally, you can also see how the swing low at C matches up to the tick with a previous swing low... but this was lost on the 1 minute chart. Its stands out beautifully here on the 5 sec chart.)

The next example is a chart from a few days ago. Its a big chart... but just focus on the 5 sec insert. Sure I could have taken this short based on the 1 minute bars and done just as well (which I did... I just didn't hold it) ... but something spooked me to get out. When I look at the 5 sec insert, I see the rejection, I see the lower high, and the lower low... and this tells me the rejection is good. I think I better understand what I'm looking at when I'm able to dial in like this.

I don't know how far I will get with this, but when I analyzed my huge loss yesterday by looking at what I was doing after I plotted it all manually on the 5 sec chart (this was lots of work... but I enjoyed this type of work!), it jumped out at me!

I wouldn't trade like this just anywhere on the chart as I know these micro swing points can mess you up... but at the important levels I think its a killer tactic. Plus it gives me an idea of what I need to see to get out.... and I need this... I need to have the control. My exits and entries and often based on hope and fear... and this clearly is not a winning strategy.

You see, when I tried looking into this lower time frame months ago I saw what you saw... just a random mess. But had I know at the time to only do this at the important levels, I would have probably seen it differently. Maybe I wouldn't have been ready at the time anyway, but it makes sense to me now. Its gonna be a bit slow moving because I don't have back data for 5 second charts... so I'm just gonna have to forward test for a few days but from what I've seen in just these past few days, I think its a major milestone.

I do still need to work out what a wave actually looks like on my 5 sec charts. The stuff 40D has shown with the line chart was just so smooth... but I don't have the option to reproduce this type of chart and hence I gotta make it work with what I have. I'm also a bit discouraged that he felt like I was missing the entire point of what it is that he is looking at when it looks quite complete given the way he illustrated it, but I guess my testing and results will have to be the ultimate deciding factor for if I'm actually understanding this or still out to lunch.

 

[BonScott]

I am throwing up a chart as I'm trying to understand what you are doing.. but perhaps our charts don't match up. The first RET, first green arrow, with an entry 1 point above gets you in at 90.25... and this one you said you skipped. The next RET that I see, the next green arrow, gets you in at 93.25. But perhaps you also used a RET on the 15 sec chart for entry like you said you used for the stop? (Its great to talk about someone else's trades for a change .... I don't mind posting as long as its not about my work!)

I got in at 92.5 on that retracement just using the 1 min chart.
When I get such a big initial stop loss, I have data to show that if it goes back 3 or more points early on then the trade usually hits the full loss more times than my target. However, rather than just putting the stop loss at 3 points, I would like a proper price action exit if I can find one. I used a swing low on the 15 second chart this time because it was around the 3 point mark, but I haven't done the required testing on this because I only have 1 min info on my old charts.

As far as hesitation goes, I wish that I could be more hesitant. I dream of a time where I can wait all week, because no proper set ups have occurred, and then jump in on Friday afternoon when my trade finally occurs, even if it loses. At the moment I can still hear myself justifying entries because they nearly meet my requirements, especially when I have waited a while with nothing happening. This week I couldn't trade my way out of a paper bag, mainly because I was too hasty after taking a break over Christmas.
The root cause of this is that I haven't defined the context around the entries precisely enough in my plan. It should be easy because I'm only using 1 min retracements on breakouts, no jumping on reversals at double tops or rejection bars for me. However, one man's important price level is another's irrelevant piece of noise, so it takes me a while to get it right.

 

[k p]

I want to do an update today to finish off the week and then I'm really taking a break from my journal. My main reason actually is in response to ND. I know how lost one can get in such a low time frame chart... but given the all important context, what I'm seeing is making total sense. The best part is that this gives me very specific reasons for entry and exit. Before, it just felt like it was based on luck if my entry would trigger, and then it was praying that price went in my favor versus it going in the other direction. The exit was always based on suffering too much of a money loss or not being able to take the wait any longer. If I used a swing point as a legit exit, I'd be mad when price poked below to steal my money and recover so quickly. So none of this was working for me.

By looking at these 5 sec charts at important levels, I am focused on what I need to see and I am waiting for the market to tell me where to get in and out. I have to always be mindful then of zooming back out, to look at the big picture, and this will come with time, but so far its a big step in the right direction.

So before the open, we have such a pretty hinge that formed. The other pertinent thing is the line at 4242.75. Its the PDH, and quite pertinent since price bounced off several times yesterday. I will make sure to say what I saw in real time and what I am seeing in post now.

I had a bit of trouble seeing the opening action because the 5 sec chart is just so spread out since there wasn't lots of price movement in the small span of time that the 5 sec chart covers. I have to figure out how to lock the scale down to show about 20 points. I do this with my 1 minute chart as well and it works well for me. Since my 5 sec chart comes from IB, manipulating charts is a bit more difficult. My understanding is that if the chart is locked down with the scale I want, it doesn't auto update price live.. which is therefore useless.

Anyway, the point to all this is that this therefore made me miss the short off the top... but based on my quickly put together trading plan... here is what should be done. (I specifically say "quickly put together" just to ruffle some feathers for those reading as I know exactly what your reaction will be... hahaha)

A - Price drops below the line.

B - There is a reaction to this (ie. the wave crests up).

C - And price drops below the previous swing low.... solid reason to short. As you can see, price never penetrates the line again... and even if it did, the reason to exit would have to be based on the reaction to the poke if it poked above. This I didn't see in real time, and I was still expecting a long perhaps... but what's on the chart doesn't lie, and the reasons for the short as per the rules are there.

Once in the trade... the idea would be to just manage. Its a nice series of lower highs and lower lows... so lets just see where the next level is.

D - This is where it gets interesting. I hadn't seen this level at 4227 as anything to be too concerned with. But just watching the price action and seeing the stop in the decline made me look to the left. On the 1 minute chart I could see a swing high that turned right here... so this might be a case of R then S. ON, this level did act as support twice... so there is something going on here, which can even be seen on the 5 minute chart.... and OMG... just as I'm typing I looked at my hourly chart and see that 4228 is highlighted as there is daily low here on Dec 31.

Anyway... so we got one bounce...

E - And a high.

F - Another bounce...

G - And a higher high... time to go long, which you can see on my 1 minute chart that I did. It drops down right away... no problem... I know what I'm looking at and what I need to see.

H - A third drop that recovers so quickly I barely see it, and then price takes off. That triple bottom sure does look sweet, and the huge buying to turn that third drop down back up so quickly is a good sign.

On my chart you see another long. I'd like to tell you that this was me being smart, but its a mistake (I hit buy instead of sell). I simply wanted to get out of long. I shouldn't be trading yet... but I had to take it... the conviction was just that strong. This trade was just a simple test... and since I was up two points, that was good enough I thought and hence was going to exit out of that one long.

So of course price is going even higher, but I just exited both contracts for +$87. Of course its sad to see that price went up easily over 10 points without the slightest hesitation, so on two contracts this would have been an instant $400... but its not about the money.. its about trading well, and I consider this a win. (Those who are saying I shouldn't be trading yet and hence consider this a loss are right in some ways, so do know that I acknowledge this, but I'm trying to figure out how to work the best way possible within the framework of who I am)

So moving on...

I - We get to here and bounce off.. perfect.

J - We have the down wave.. perfect.

K - Looking for price to now penetrate this low at J... never happens. Therefore, no reason to exit the long, no reason to think about shorting. (this is what is going through my head... but I am done with live trades today)

Then sideways action... and a breakthrough. I remember reading somewhere that Db said that you know if the level was important S or R because of how price busts through.. and if it does, then you know there was something to the level. I'd say that here it busts through.

L - So now it gets interesting here. If I wasn't long yet, and we go above this level, I can start thinking about longs. I've got the high just to the left that I need to breach, and we do a few bars after L, but at the same time, I know I'm at my opening high, and that could cause trouble.

M - We bust through... but look, no reaction, no wave, we just fall back down below.

N - Now is this a wave up then down? I have no idea. Where is the previous swing low that I need to breach before thinking about shorting? I'm not super sure. The fact that we have that level at 43 and the opening high so close might really be like two storm systems mixing.

P - Perhaps its not until we get to here that I see a solid wave up... an attempt to find buyers, and when there aren't any, shorting below here seems legit. But this is quite far away now, and even if I was just using one minute bars and wanted to short below the bar that rejects at the opening high, my entry price would have been 44.25, if I didn't have any consideration for that level at 43. (oopppss.. I just notice that my levels at 43 between the two charts down match up.. they are one point apart. On this 5 second chart, it should be one point lower... too late to fix it)

Ok.. that's it for the 5 sec chart.

Q - As we come down here again, I see exactly what I need to see on the 5 sec chart to take a long, and it works. We clearly don't go far, but an exit at BE is a certainty, and perhaps I'd even lock in a couple of points as my DL would have broken.

R - A long here I can justify as well.... but its getting a bit busy to the left so I don't want to be looking for too many trades in here except at really important levels..

S - The short here is perfectly set up... the action on the 5 sec chart couldn't be any cleaner. This level here is both the overnight low... the blue line... and the red line was already on my chart from Jan 5.

T - Likewise.... the long here as well is perfect on the 5 sec chart. Price would go against me about 2 points after entry, but never come close to where the stop would actually be. We have a very serious downtrend now... I realize... but its an important level and rules are rules.

U - Once again, the short here is perfect.... just perfect. I can't tell you how clean it is on the 5 sec. I would show you.. but I'm just too lazy.

All these levels were already on my chart. I did not in any way expect price to drop like this, but as we started to, I was only looking at these levels that were already on my chart and hence why I mention all the trades that were possible. If the level wasn't hit, I wouldn't even be thinking long or short. And I would have already made plenty of money today anyway!

 

[NoDoji]

But I can see from my live trades that I'm uncomfortable holding when price turns on me, and worse, I can't do anything about it but wait for the stop to be hit.

You can do anything about it that you choose to do. By saying "I can't" and "I couldn't", you're reinforcing the belief that you're a victim of your fixed mindset. As a result, you're on a path of financial destruction because you're looking for ways to adapt the market to your defective thoughts and feelings (it's just my personality...it's just how I am...I just need to experience enough pain that I don't repeat these mistakes...I'm never going to do it that way again...and on and on). The market knows nothing about you and your needs and could not care less what you gain or lose and how you manage your trades. All the technical analysis in the world will not magically give you the ability to put on and take off trades in a manner that produces profitability over time.

You made a very astute observation: “I accept this wholly because if I could be somewhere different, if I wanted to be somewhere different, I would be there.”

Now I'll rephrase it so you can see and hear what you said: "I wholly accept where I am. I want to be here, analyzing charts and looking for ways to remove risk from trading because I'm so uncomfortable trading. I really like analyzing price action. I'm so uncomfortable and stressed out by actual trading, that I prefer to be right here, analyzing price action. I see all these great opportunities in the market! Soon I'll have it all figured out and be able to comfortably get into trades and manage them easily because I'll have these really low risk entries that I feel so confident about, I can't possibly screw up! But right now I really like it here. If I wanted to be somewhere different, I would be there."

So let's look at the difference between analyzing price action and being in the thick of price action with your capital on the line: “Perfect example is today. Suppose I finally wanted to get into this up move and I notice this little RET here at A and I get in 1 tick above which fills on the next bar. Then I set my stop to the low at B. Now price penetrates this on the next bar, and if my stop was 1 tick below C, then I'm taken out. But when I look at the 5 sec chart... its so obvious that the poke means nothing to my long entry... I see that there is no reason to exit.”

Seriously, k p?? How would you not be taken out during C using the 5-sec chart if you’d be taken out there using the 1-min chart? You’re saying above that you can see that there’s no reason to exit after that little poke at C, but your stop would’ve already been hit during C by the time you saw it. Either you’d have a wider stop or you’d have a stop below B. Doesn't matter which chart you used to enter. There’s nothing different to see except when you analyze it after the fact. Let's say you did manage to react quickly and get long using the little hook on the 5-sec chart. In real time, you’d be stopped out on the move below B or still in it. Now look closely at that 5-sec chart and tell me that if you entered using that chart and you amazingly decided to place a wider stop based on the earlier swing low just before 8:43, that you wouldn’t have immediately moved your stop to break even after the 7th 5-sec bar following C and then been stopped out B/E during the 8th bar.

Of course you would’ve done that, because that’s how you roll.

And why do you roll that way? Because you’re on the wrong path.

LOSER’S mindset: “When in my 20 point losing trading, I kept saying to myself that I shouldn't be here, but I clearly didn't feel enough pain yet to get out.”

TRADER’S mindset: “My stop loss on this trade is 3 points because that’s where the odds of price reaching my minimum profit target will be diminished relative to the odds of price moving further against me."

LOSER’S mindset: “Sure I could have taken this short based on the 1 minute bars and done just as well (which I did... I just didn't hold it) ... but something spooked me to get out.”

TRADER’S mindset: “Great triple top rejection short here, should be good for at least 20 points to test that previous low. Unless I get a clear long signal, I’ll wait for a test of that level.”

“I don't know how far I will get with this, but when I analyzed my huge loss yesterday by looking at what I was doing after I plotted it all manually on the 5 sec chart (this was lots of work... but I enjoyed this type of work!), it jumped out at me!”

Of course it jumped out at you after the fact because you’re analyzing something at your leisure with nothing at risk and no negative emotions to influence your behavior.

This is what The Wrong Path looks like.

This is what The Wrong Path feels like.

You’re looking to minimize risk by seeking some Holy Grail of technical analysis that will prevent losses. But that's absolutely impossible.

The Holy Grail is a proper mindset. If you'd been demonstrating a proper mindset and you were seeking alternative entry methods by studying hundreds of appearances of a certain pattern, then you'd be on the right path by analyzing these smaller time frames. (I found a couple entry methods using the 1-min chart by doing such an analysis; but my signals all come from the 5-min chart. Period.)

The Holy Grail will be in your hands once you replace your loser’s mindset with a trader’s mindset.

To do that, you first have to make a conscious decision to turn around and get on the right path.

 

[k p]

You made a very astute observation: “I accept this wholly because if I could be somewhere different, if I wanted to be somewhere different, I would be there.”

Now I'll rephrase it so you can see and hear what you said: "I wholly accept where I am. I want to be here, analyzing charts and looking for ways to remove risk from trading because I'm so uncomfortable trading. I really like analyzing price action. I'm so uncomfortable and stressed out by actual trading, that I prefer to be right here, analyzing price action. I see all these great opportunities in the market! Soon I'll have it all figured out and be able to comfortably get into trades and manage them easily because I'll have these really low risk entries that I feel so confident about, I can't possibly screw up! But right now I really like it here. If I wanted to be somewhere different, I would be there."

Seriously, k p?? How would you not be taken out during C using the 5-sec chart if you’d be taken out there using the 1-min chart? You’re saying above that you can see that there’s no reason to exit after that little poke at C, but your stop would’ve already been hit during C by the time you saw it. Either you’d have a wider stop or you’d have a stop below B. Doesn't matter which chart you used to enter. There’s nothing different to see except when you analyze it after the fact. Let's say you did manage to react quickly and get long using the little hook on the 5-sec chart. In real time, you’d be stopped out on the move below B or still in it. Now look closely at that 5-sec chart and tell me that if you entered using that chart and you amazingly decided to place a wider stop based on the earlier swing low just before 8:43, that you wouldn’t have immediately moved your stop to break even after the 7th 5-sec bar following C and then been stopped out B/E during the 8th bar.

LOSER’S mindset: “When in my 20 point losing trading, I kept saying to myself that I shouldn't be here, but I clearly didn't feel enough pain yet to get out.”

TRADER’S mindset: “My stop loss on this trade is 3 points because that’s where the odds of price reaching my minimum profit target will be diminished relative to the odds of price moving further against me."

LOSER’S mindset: “Sure I could have taken this short based on the 1 minute bars and done just as well (which I did... I just didn't hold it) ... but something spooked me to get out.”

TRADER’S mindset: “Great triple top rejection short here, should be good for at least 20 points to test that previous low. Unless I get a clear long signal, I’ll wait for a test of that level.”

“I don't know how far I will get with this, but when I analyzed my huge loss yesterday by looking at what I was doing after I plotted it all manually on the 5 sec chart (this was lots of work... but I enjoyed this type of work!), it jumped out at me!”

Of course it jumped out at you after the fact because you’re analyzing something at your leisure with nothing at risk and no negative emotions to influence your behavior.

Thanks for the very thoughtful reply ND. I just have a little bit of time today, but two things jump out at me as a way to perhaps clarify things a bit.

So first point is in regards to the way you rephrased my thoughts up there. I certainly can't argue with most of this... but there is one critical thing missing. Up till now, I really didn't know what I was looking for, or what I was looking at. I know firmly that I can't remove all risk, but perhaps the biggest risk that I have had with my trading up till now is not having worked out what I was going to do, what I needed to see, and what I was going to do about it. So I know its easy to point out that it appears to me that more analysis will solve all my problems, but in a way, this is true. If I don't have worked out what exactly will cause me to get in, what will cause me to get out, then even a proper trader's mindset just doesn't help. I accept that my results up till now couldn't be anything but terrible because the rules to get in and out were just on a whim. Some traders I did enter properly, but it all fell apart after the fact. Exits at a loss were based on fear and the amount lost, and exits for a profit were based on having taken "enough" money. But none of these were based on signs coming from the market.

Ok... next point is about the exit at C. You see, there is a critical different right now between how you identify your exit and how I will be identifying my exits going forward. Lets take hockey as an example (not that I'm a fan or anything mind you.) But I think there is one guy who has the job of looking at the net, watching the line drawn on the ice, and identifying if the puck crosses this line. He doesn't care if the puck is shot through and hits the back of the net as it flies quickly through the air, or if it just dribbles over the line as its sliding slowly on the ice. His only job is to say if the puck crossed the line of the net or not. This is what the fixed stop would be like.

But I think its important to see how this break happens. Imagine you're standing at traffic light waiting to cross, and you have the go ahead to walk. You see a car approaching, and its slowing down, but still manages to cross that thick wide strip of paint drawn on the ground that tells it where it needs to stop behind. You as a pedestrian still keep walking because you see that as it crosses that line, its slowing down... it won't hit you. But if on the other hand, you see the car approaching quickly, and it crosses that line quickly, you don't dare start to cross because you know that given how quickly it crossed that line, it will for sure enter the area that is designed for pedestrians.

So for me, I might have the low at C as an area to watch for a stop, and I know that if price penetrates, this isn't good. But what I will do is watch if given this penetration, there are enough traders enticed to sell further, or rather, that it prevents any potential buyers from coming in to support price. If enough buyers steps in quickly to push price back up above the swing point, then there would have been no reason to exit, but the automatic stop loss would have taken me out. If after that moment of hesitation after the penetration results in price dropping further, I run for the exits, and perhaps given context and my rules, even join them and enter short after exiting the long.

In regards to "TRADER’S mindset: “My stop loss on this trade is 3 points because that’s where the odds of price reaching my minimum profit target will be diminished relative to the odds of price moving further against me." .... I think that there can be a further qualification here. As the example above, knowing how this stop loss happens makes all the difference. Odds are important, but if you include behavior into the mix, I think those odds can be refined even further.

I might know that if I talk to 50 random girls out on the street for 5 minutes each, I might get 10 phone numbers, so I've got a 20% hit rate. But if I get really good at it, I might learn that in the first 30 seconds I can figure out based on body language who is actually interested in me and is more likely to give me their number and who isn't. I could therefore cut some conversations at the one minute mark, cutting my losses of the time invested, and be much better prepared to talk to the next girl who might be more interested in me right off the bat.

 

[NoDoji]

I might know that if I talk to 50 random girls out on the street for 5 minutes each, I might get 10 phone numbers, so I've got a 20% hit rate. But if I get really good at it, I might learn that in the first 30 seconds I can figure out based on body language who is actually interested in me and is more likely to give me their number and who isn't. I could therefore cut some conversations at the one minute mark, cutting my losses of the time invested, and be much better prepared to talk to the next girl who might be more interested in me right off the bat.

Yes, and if you don't master the behavior that keeps the girls interested in you long enough for you to "profit" from the connection, it doesn't matter how many numbers you get.

 

[fortydraws]

I am thoroughly enjoying observation... but I cheated by asking Db for his insight about quality!

First off, let's keep your issues in your journal, fair enough?

Second, you keeping asking others for answers to questions that ultimately can only be answered through your own self-discovery. If you want to trade by price, you need to just do the work. What does the work look like? I am attempting to show one way it might be done in my journal. I know you said you looked at my charts and your read my comments. The problem is that did nothing for you. Until you thoughtfully study this, you will not get it. The irony of you, KP, is that you seem to want this fast, but then you do everything you can to make sure it will never happen. You need to talk less, think more. Thoughtful observation. It is the only way.

 

[k p]

First off, let's keep your issues in your journal, fair enough?

Yes... this is much better so I don't mess up your thread.

As to the second part... I guess my best answer is this. In trading, we follow price, and its the biggest players that will take price either up or down. Likewise, reading about where you are looking, tells me that there is clearly something there important to be seen (if its important for you... then it more than likely has significance/value).

Given that the 09:46 area that you thought showed low quality buying coming in (just below 4240), I was trying to figure out what there is to be seen here. I was fully aware of 4252 and had this on my chart, and even now see that 4242 was a high on Jan 8, but talking about the quality of buyers and sellers was something completely new, so I wanted to ask how this might even show up in a chart since I don't even see this level marked on any of your charts.

I sincerely didn't think that any possible weakness was in the cards yet, and I think you even mentioned earlier that you thought the day would end on a high with just minor pullbacks. When you mentioned 0946, this almost seemed like a typo with reference to the time you were quoting. So you really caught my interest when you confirmed the 0946 time and I literally had nothing to go on with regards to the introduction of the quality of traders.

But for sure the only way forward is for me observe and make hypothesis based on what I can see. Thanks for all the help![/QUOTE]

 

[dartmus]

When I was studying Brooks I thought he was nuts for claiming that 1-min traders were playing with fire and likely losing money. I learned later the hard way (lost 50 ticks in about 10 mins accidentally getting sucked into the 1-min chart one morning) that he's right. It's possible to trade strictly off a 1-min (or 70-tick) chart, and even off micro tick charts, but you are light years away from the level of expertise and experience necessary to do that.

The chance of price doing something unexpected is not related to how far price has moved from a particular level.

The more patient you are in waiting for price confirmation of a setup or a potential signal of a directional price move, the greater the likelihood of price achieving a directional move sufficient to realize your profit goals.

You have so much to learn and you haven't even built a foundation upon which to set up your framework.

Think of a time when you thought you knew something and someone with experience tried to advise you and you ignored them and later on you discovered they were absolutely right. Once you think of that, imagine how nice it would be to be able to go back in time and follow that advice from the start.

Once you feel how great that would be, tell yourself that you're in that place right now and all you have to do is be totally open to building a trader's mindset instead of defending your beliefs.

"The future is that time when you'll wish you had done what you aren't doing now."

I took your suggestion and deleted my less than 1m interval charts. Thank you for repeating it so many times. This is much easier for me. I had elaborate plans for my tiny interval charts but given what I've found in the short time away from them, I don't miss them.