In line with my reply above, I don't think it really matters all that much as long you use something consistent. I use IB's datafeed and the price bars appear to match the live action I see. I think occasionally a spike high or low gets adjusted a tick or so after the fact (or maybe I'm hallucinating, LOL). I have quotetracker charts up too because I do after market research using those charts. They are often inconsistent with IB charts here and there, but as long as the gist of the price action matches, I'm fine with that. I only use those charts for researching ideas and illustrating stuff for reference. I remember in my Skype room it seemed everyone had slightly different charts, off a tick or so here and there.
Trading NQ via Price Action
- Thread starter k p
- Start date
In line with my reply above, I don't think it really matters all that much as long you use something consistent. I use IB's datafeed and the price bars appear to match the live action I see. I think occasionally a spike high or low gets adjusted a tick or so after the fact (or maybe I'm hallucinating, LOL). I have quotetracker charts up too because I do after market research using those charts. They are often inconsistent with IB charts here and there, but as long as the gist of the price action matches, I'm fine with that. I only use those charts for researching ideas and illustrating stuff for reference. I remember in my Skype room it seemed everyone had slightly different charts, off a tick or so here and there.
Got up early to watch the action of the news release which I find fascinating. Maybe if I had the TV on at the same time it would make more sense (which of course I don't do since I don't trade the news), because I wonder how it can first very quickly go up, then down, then up again. Maybe Yellen smiles, so people think its good, then she frowns, traders start selling, and then she finally gives them some data so they get excited, but she ends with a bad outlook so back down we come! LOL
A - Here is my 5 min DL from the low ON. I wouldn't think I could use these lines for a new release since whatever is said might bust through any trend that is in the making, but gosh, just a slight penetration here and back up.
B - Here would a solid RET to go long, and this looks even that much better after the bounce from the long term SL. It clearly fizzles, but good enough for an easy 5 points (although I'm sure there is nothing easy about trading news releases)
C & D- Micro DL and micro resistance level. I have no way to trade this yet, and worry that if I look into it at a later date that I might just be trying to play with the algos that are way superior to me, but this is just visually so obvious, and price usually either busts through resistance, or drops below this support, so the desire is there to find a statistically positive way to trade this.
In the bigger picture, what I see about this is that we couldn't climb back up to the spike high at 4011, so this has me thinking we might be starting a down trend now, but I will have to wait to see what happens at the 5 min DL. I should also draw a fanned one taking into account that dip below on the news release which is a couple of points lower.
EDIT: But of course we also at the end there have a higher low, which happens just above the DL, so perhaps staying above this line and a higher low is a signal to stay long. I do wish price had come right down to the line though.
A - Here is my 5 min DL from the low ON. I wouldn't think I could use these lines for a new release since whatever is said might bust through any trend that is in the making, but gosh, just a slight penetration here and back up.
B - Here would a solid RET to go long, and this looks even that much better after the bounce from the long term SL. It clearly fizzles, but good enough for an easy 5 points (although I'm sure there is nothing easy about trading news releases)
C & D- Micro DL and micro resistance level. I have no way to trade this yet, and worry that if I look into it at a later date that I might just be trying to play with the algos that are way superior to me, but this is just visually so obvious, and price usually either busts through resistance, or drops below this support, so the desire is there to find a statistically positive way to trade this.
In the bigger picture, what I see about this is that we couldn't climb back up to the spike high at 4011, so this has me thinking we might be starting a down trend now, but I will have to wait to see what happens at the 5 min DL. I should also draw a fanned one taking into account that dip below on the news release which is a couple of points lower.
EDIT: But of course we also at the end there have a higher low, which happens just above the DL, so perhaps staying above this line and a higher low is a signal to stay long. I do wish price had come right down to the line though.
Attachments
E - So before the open, as I look at my 5 min, I notice this beautiful hinge setting up, drawn in via these yellow lines.
O - At the open, we drop out below the hinge.
F - We quickly come to the first DL (which was penetrated during the news release).
I have a green arrow above to go long, thinking if we get a bounce from this line (but for a reversal, I really should need more than this, and a trend line is just a trend line, its not as important as a firm level of support or resistance because trend lines don't provide this as Db would say).
At the same time, even if I took the trade and saw price came down and exited quickly, I could sell at the down arrow. This bar above the down arrow is also a nice little RET. (but I admit, no way could I be so nimble in real time)
G - So we drop below that fanned 5 min DL. There isn't a RET to go short (hmmm... does ND say we need a RET or just for the close to be outside of the line.. or for the bar to be fully outside of the line??? its a minor yet important distinction) Here, on the trigger bar, I see that price did first go back inside and then come back out. Now I also think she doesn't like it when price goes back inside, but if I keep waiting, I'm getting further and further away from the line, and hence my stop would have to be bigger and bigger, which then of course means no trade since the R:R just don't work anymore.
H - So why do we stop here? To the left, hours ago, is a level of consolidation and a swing low, but you know, as price was coming up from the overnight low, there were plenty of areas that look like they could provide support. So who cares why, lets just see it stopped here.
So we go back up, through the lower DL, bounce of the top one and form a higher low.
I - So here we have a 123 setup. If I had a steep SL drawn in to track price down after the open it would have broken (not shown though), and by going long at this green up arrow, if price came up, then the bar below would have formed the higher low, and we would have had confirmation once price broke above the swing high just to the left of "I". (this is the thing about higher lows, you never know its a higher low until a few bars later you look and see, yes, that bar was the higher low. of course by then the trade is gone, so when you are placing the trade, you are doing it not because you know this is where the higher low is, but just because if price comes up to hit your entry for a long, then hopefully price continues up and that was in fact the higher low. but if after you entry price drops again and continues lower, then you will in fact make a new low than your signal bar, even maybe break the low to form a lower low. i haven't seen anybody write this before. sure they say buy above the higher low, but in real time, we don't really know where it is yet... at least i don't! maybe i'm not too smart and this is just obvious, but that why i was always scared to put on trades, i kept thinking well what if it goes down right after my long entry and forms a lower low!!)
Anyway... moving on. I should point out that this trade wouldn't be exactly according to the plan as I'm looking at it now, but its a solid trade, and I fully understand how its happening. The reason is that it isn't the BOPB of a 5 min trendline as ND shows. There are the juiciest trades and the ones I want to focus on, but sometimes when something else comes up that is really good, I'm inclined to want to take it.
J - So as we come up, I notice that I can just extend the upper hinge line, and this is in fact my 5 min SL from the spike at the open. We have a BO, and a close below the line, then we come back up again, and close above the line. This forms our RET and a place to go long. I just mark it in, but sigh, this is the perfect trade, the perfect setup. I'm of course sighing because I know what happens over the next 30 minutes, but lets just pretend I don't.
K - So the long worked right away, but we come to within a few ticks of the OH, and you remember that during the news release, this level was rejected quite strongly, and even though price tried to climb back up, it just couldn't. Now of course during the RTH we have a huge amount of traders that can easily bust through any level with a flood of buy orders if they so wanted to, but will they want to.
So I think, what if we tried for a short below these bars. I am careful to even suggest this because we have a strong up trend, so lets not go shorting that, but I think that this level could at least be significant. The trade would fill, then some congestion, and ultimately we go higher.
L - So we make it exactly to the OH, and hesitate again. I could mark in another short, but I notice each of these bars have a higher low, and then we break out!
I really gotta stop pointing out things that I don't know how to even trade. If the reversal happens, eventually the trade to get into the down move will appear, and although I might not catch it right at the top, long term survivability means not shorting in an up trend!
M - We come down to the breakout level, the OH, and bounce off.
N - And so here is another chance for a RET to go long. Even this one worth 10 points, never mind the 35 points we have already climbed up!
P - If I was to draw a DL connecting all of the lows from the bottom, I have a very tight DL that would break here. But no way am I going to short this huge trend up. The climb up from "N" to the top was very quick, so it makes sense that we have a deep RET, but still not reason enough to short, unless maybe I wanted to scalp a few points thinking that we will fill in that quick climb.
SUMMARY
So the open was a bit confusing, and I suspect some shorts based on the break of that DL from the overnight action could have netted some points, unless of course I held on hoping to test the line in which case they would be a loss. (you know how I like to exit for a one tick profit though.. hahahaha)
Since price didn't make it that far down below the DL breaks (both of them), it seems appropriate to consider that 123 setup as a solid trade and highly probable to work. If the trend really would be down, we should have gone much lower after the break of the DL than just a few points.
But more importantly, the trade at "J" is about as solid as it gets. I might have more than likely exited only 5 or 6 points higher, just below the OH, so I doubt I would have held on for the 20 points that there was after the entry at J, but the important thing is this trade worked... worked beautifully, and worked yet again.
I'm not sure if I really wanted to put it on. I wanted the money, but wasn't as greedy today. All this week, Tuesday and Wednesday especially in those huge down moves, this trade setup has proven itself, so I think the fear today was that it would stop working, or that I wouldn't know how to manage it, or that if this one didn't work, would I be able to take the next one because I know, as KDASFTG keeps reminding me, one trade means nothing, its the string of trades that matter. (this trade worked today of course, so its just waiting to stop working when I put it on... hahahaha... ok.. that's a joke, i know this isn't the case)
As bh_prop has also pointed out to me, the reason why those days appeared so good via paper trading, just like today, is because I was completely detached emotionally from the trades. If I put the trades on today and they failed, I'm fairly certain that I would be quite attached, or rather, if I put them on, I might have exited at the slightest pause, thereby not allow the trades to even reach their full potential. I feel as if I just want one good day, to capture one 20 or 30 point move, put $500 back into my account, and then I will feel better about putting on more trades as I should and not worry about having to scratch some because I just built up that $500 buffer. (as silly as it is to say, I want the buffer to cover any mistakes I make, but once again, proper trades are not mistakes, they are trades that just didn't work)
Its not that my account couldn't take another $1000 loss, it could, but there is no point in taking that loss again until I am fully ready to go. I think I should be telling myself that I am not, but jesus, how many times do I have to see this setup work and be left wishing I got in just minutes after the trade takes off?
Why I continue to torture myself mentally and emotionally like this I also don't know! LOL
This endevour would be easier if I just didn't think so much. I always thought I was quite smart, but clearly this just makes me bit on the dumb side when it comes to trading because the smart traders just do what they gotta do over and over again, and not wallow around in self inflicted misery like me!
Ok... good day nonetheless. This shit really works!
O - At the open, we drop out below the hinge.
F - We quickly come to the first DL (which was penetrated during the news release).
I have a green arrow above to go long, thinking if we get a bounce from this line (but for a reversal, I really should need more than this, and a trend line is just a trend line, its not as important as a firm level of support or resistance because trend lines don't provide this as Db would say).
At the same time, even if I took the trade and saw price came down and exited quickly, I could sell at the down arrow. This bar above the down arrow is also a nice little RET. (but I admit, no way could I be so nimble in real time)
G - So we drop below that fanned 5 min DL. There isn't a RET to go short (hmmm... does ND say we need a RET or just for the close to be outside of the line.. or for the bar to be fully outside of the line??? its a minor yet important distinction) Here, on the trigger bar, I see that price did first go back inside and then come back out. Now I also think she doesn't like it when price goes back inside, but if I keep waiting, I'm getting further and further away from the line, and hence my stop would have to be bigger and bigger, which then of course means no trade since the R:R just don't work anymore.
H - So why do we stop here? To the left, hours ago, is a level of consolidation and a swing low, but you know, as price was coming up from the overnight low, there were plenty of areas that look like they could provide support. So who cares why, lets just see it stopped here.
So we go back up, through the lower DL, bounce of the top one and form a higher low.
I - So here we have a 123 setup. If I had a steep SL drawn in to track price down after the open it would have broken (not shown though), and by going long at this green up arrow, if price came up, then the bar below would have formed the higher low, and we would have had confirmation once price broke above the swing high just to the left of "I". (this is the thing about higher lows, you never know its a higher low until a few bars later you look and see, yes, that bar was the higher low. of course by then the trade is gone, so when you are placing the trade, you are doing it not because you know this is where the higher low is, but just because if price comes up to hit your entry for a long, then hopefully price continues up and that was in fact the higher low. but if after you entry price drops again and continues lower, then you will in fact make a new low than your signal bar, even maybe break the low to form a lower low. i haven't seen anybody write this before. sure they say buy above the higher low, but in real time, we don't really know where it is yet... at least i don't! maybe i'm not too smart and this is just obvious, but that why i was always scared to put on trades, i kept thinking well what if it goes down right after my long entry and forms a lower low!!)
Anyway... moving on. I should point out that this trade wouldn't be exactly according to the plan as I'm looking at it now, but its a solid trade, and I fully understand how its happening. The reason is that it isn't the BOPB of a 5 min trendline as ND shows. There are the juiciest trades and the ones I want to focus on, but sometimes when something else comes up that is really good, I'm inclined to want to take it.
J - So as we come up, I notice that I can just extend the upper hinge line, and this is in fact my 5 min SL from the spike at the open. We have a BO, and a close below the line, then we come back up again, and close above the line. This forms our RET and a place to go long. I just mark it in, but sigh, this is the perfect trade, the perfect setup. I'm of course sighing because I know what happens over the next 30 minutes, but lets just pretend I don't.
K - So the long worked right away, but we come to within a few ticks of the OH, and you remember that during the news release, this level was rejected quite strongly, and even though price tried to climb back up, it just couldn't. Now of course during the RTH we have a huge amount of traders that can easily bust through any level with a flood of buy orders if they so wanted to, but will they want to.
So I think, what if we tried for a short below these bars. I am careful to even suggest this because we have a strong up trend, so lets not go shorting that, but I think that this level could at least be significant. The trade would fill, then some congestion, and ultimately we go higher.
L - So we make it exactly to the OH, and hesitate again. I could mark in another short, but I notice each of these bars have a higher low, and then we break out!
I really gotta stop pointing out things that I don't know how to even trade. If the reversal happens, eventually the trade to get into the down move will appear, and although I might not catch it right at the top, long term survivability means not shorting in an up trend!
M - We come down to the breakout level, the OH, and bounce off.
N - And so here is another chance for a RET to go long. Even this one worth 10 points, never mind the 35 points we have already climbed up!
P - If I was to draw a DL connecting all of the lows from the bottom, I have a very tight DL that would break here. But no way am I going to short this huge trend up. The climb up from "N" to the top was very quick, so it makes sense that we have a deep RET, but still not reason enough to short, unless maybe I wanted to scalp a few points thinking that we will fill in that quick climb.
SUMMARY
So the open was a bit confusing, and I suspect some shorts based on the break of that DL from the overnight action could have netted some points, unless of course I held on hoping to test the line in which case they would be a loss. (you know how I like to exit for a one tick profit though.. hahahaha)
Since price didn't make it that far down below the DL breaks (both of them), it seems appropriate to consider that 123 setup as a solid trade and highly probable to work. If the trend really would be down, we should have gone much lower after the break of the DL than just a few points.
But more importantly, the trade at "J" is about as solid as it gets. I might have more than likely exited only 5 or 6 points higher, just below the OH, so I doubt I would have held on for the 20 points that there was after the entry at J, but the important thing is this trade worked... worked beautifully, and worked yet again.
I'm not sure if I really wanted to put it on. I wanted the money, but wasn't as greedy today. All this week, Tuesday and Wednesday especially in those huge down moves, this trade setup has proven itself, so I think the fear today was that it would stop working, or that I wouldn't know how to manage it, or that if this one didn't work, would I be able to take the next one because I know, as KDASFTG keeps reminding me, one trade means nothing, its the string of trades that matter. (this trade worked today of course, so its just waiting to stop working when I put it on... hahahaha... ok.. that's a joke, i know this isn't the case)
As bh_prop has also pointed out to me, the reason why those days appeared so good via paper trading, just like today, is because I was completely detached emotionally from the trades. If I put the trades on today and they failed, I'm fairly certain that I would be quite attached, or rather, if I put them on, I might have exited at the slightest pause, thereby not allow the trades to even reach their full potential. I feel as if I just want one good day, to capture one 20 or 30 point move, put $500 back into my account, and then I will feel better about putting on more trades as I should and not worry about having to scratch some because I just built up that $500 buffer. (as silly as it is to say, I want the buffer to cover any mistakes I make, but once again, proper trades are not mistakes, they are trades that just didn't work)
Its not that my account couldn't take another $1000 loss, it could, but there is no point in taking that loss again until I am fully ready to go. I think I should be telling myself that I am not, but jesus, how many times do I have to see this setup work and be left wishing I got in just minutes after the trade takes off?
Why I continue to torture myself mentally and emotionally like this I also don't know! LOL
This endevour would be easier if I just didn't think so much. I always thought I was quite smart, but clearly this just makes me bit on the dumb side when it comes to trading because the smart traders just do what they gotta do over and over again, and not wallow around in self inflicted misery like me!
Ok... good day nonetheless. This shit really works!
Attachments
So more practice....
As it turns out, that high of 4026 really is sticking. Posting an hourly chart to show that I would expect price to hit about 37, a target based on that hinge I have drawn in and the congestion area. Of course this is the long term view, so it may very well get there. There is also that long term SL up at the top at about 4043 that might be juicy. You remember a few days ago we had a bounce at 65, and this SL was already drawn in from the previous swing highs. So I do love this long term approach and will for sure one day figure out a way to make it work, but for now I'm focusing on more short term gains. (also on my chart is the first hinge, in yellow on the very left, and look at how its apex provided the resistance level a few days later.. wow.. just wow... go Db!)
So after P, as price comes down, I can drawn in some supply lines, but still not thinking I would short anywhere. First one breaks, but I can fan it after it makes a lower low.
Q - Curiously we have a bounce at the OH, the level I disregarded earlier! I will use this swing point now for both a few and tight DL, but also to connect with the low after the open.
R - We have a break of the SL here, and I guess a RET to go long at the green arrow indicated 5 minutes later. I remember reading just yesterday how ND said that often, the high or low of the day will be tested. There was also another setup that she was commenting on... I think it was in VV's journal, that it made sense to go long to at least capture a 5 point move to the top of a previous high which would be tested. If its rejected, he could still capture those 5 points. Here, there are 5 points to get to 26, but it doesn't quite go as high.
S - Here would technically be another RET, but now we have congestion, and we also have that high at 26, so this is all now in a range you could say, so its best a go long above a break of 26.
T - So here we have a break of the tighter DL.
U - Here is a break of the 5 min DL from the bottom.
Here is what I'm also seeing... look at the selling. These two down bars are huge compared to the climb up and there is no overlap... this selling might be strong... but how to get in?
V - This isn't quite precise enough, but I think ND would say that this almost tests the break of the DL.
So look at what we have here. We have a break of both DL's. We have failure to make a HH above 26. We have a test of the break of the the DL. Lets put on a short below this bar!
W - Here is the entry. Wow.. its works for 4 points!
X - Ok.. but now this series of higher low and lower highs is forming such a beautiful hinge on the 5 minute... lets see what happens!
As it turns out, that high of 4026 really is sticking. Posting an hourly chart to show that I would expect price to hit about 37, a target based on that hinge I have drawn in and the congestion area. Of course this is the long term view, so it may very well get there. There is also that long term SL up at the top at about 4043 that might be juicy. You remember a few days ago we had a bounce at 65, and this SL was already drawn in from the previous swing highs. So I do love this long term approach and will for sure one day figure out a way to make it work, but for now I'm focusing on more short term gains. (also on my chart is the first hinge, in yellow on the very left, and look at how its apex provided the resistance level a few days later.. wow.. just wow... go Db!)
So after P, as price comes down, I can drawn in some supply lines, but still not thinking I would short anywhere. First one breaks, but I can fan it after it makes a lower low.
Q - Curiously we have a bounce at the OH, the level I disregarded earlier! I will use this swing point now for both a few and tight DL, but also to connect with the low after the open.
R - We have a break of the SL here, and I guess a RET to go long at the green arrow indicated 5 minutes later. I remember reading just yesterday how ND said that often, the high or low of the day will be tested. There was also another setup that she was commenting on... I think it was in VV's journal, that it made sense to go long to at least capture a 5 point move to the top of a previous high which would be tested. If its rejected, he could still capture those 5 points. Here, there are 5 points to get to 26, but it doesn't quite go as high.
S - Here would technically be another RET, but now we have congestion, and we also have that high at 26, so this is all now in a range you could say, so its best a go long above a break of 26.
T - So here we have a break of the tighter DL.
U - Here is a break of the 5 min DL from the bottom.
Here is what I'm also seeing... look at the selling. These two down bars are huge compared to the climb up and there is no overlap... this selling might be strong... but how to get in?
V - This isn't quite precise enough, but I think ND would say that this almost tests the break of the DL.
So look at what we have here. We have a break of both DL's. We have failure to make a HH above 26. We have a test of the break of the the DL. Lets put on a short below this bar!
W - Here is the entry. Wow.. its works for 4 points!
X - Ok.. but now this series of higher low and lower highs is forming such a beautiful hinge on the 5 minute... lets see what happens!
Attachments
Oh man...
Y - So here is an initial break and price comes back inside. I would be inclined to put a sell stop at the indicated arrow. If price comes down again to trigger it, the chance of going lower is quite high. Sure enough, this was a zero risk trade because it just worked right away for it seems like 5 points now.
Y - So here is an initial break and price comes back inside. I would be inclined to put a sell stop at the indicated arrow. If price comes down again to trigger it, the chance of going lower is quite high. Sure enough, this was a zero risk trade because it just worked right away for it seems like 5 points now.
Attachments
Z - Ok.. so that short worked well, but ultimately we couldn't break the previous low and stop at here. I will now draw in a new DL, well just using the yellow hinge line, but lets see if price comes down to here again.
a - Here is a long that can be taken, but to be fair, I didn't see this in real time. I was still hanging on to the idea of my short working, but would have more than likely exited already. I'm just not that quick about changing my mind to go in the opposite direction. But here we have the perfect 123 setup. I mean its a thing of beauty when you look at it now.
b - We come damn close to this hinge line/SL and its showing to still be holding up, so lets try for a short below. You'll notice my arrows sometimes appear as if they are a point away, sometimes only 2 ticks away. I don't think I can use ND's 1 tick entry, just seems like I would get sucked into too many bad moves, but you know... just as I'm writing this, here is what hit me. If the trade is considered, then clearly this means I'm expecting the short. And since I'm wanting to short, there is hopefully a greater chance that price will come down, because if this isn't the higher probability, why am I shorting??? So if I'm actually scared of my entry getting triggered, I am actually scared for price to do what I think it will do. So in essence, by taking the short higher up, not only is my profit increased, but my loss will also be decreased if I have to exit for a loss (but this is of course secondary to the idea that I'm going in for a profit). Hmmmm.. something to think about.
Anyway, the trade stops working but it still looks good as price rides the yellow line down, until of course there is a break.
c - Could I be so quick to get in here? Hmmm... no bar has closed about the line yet, but the series of HH and HL sure make this looked primed for breaking out now that we didn't find any sellers earlier.
d - But look at this, another great opportunity! It just takes off, and runs right back down so this is scary.
e - We really only come down to essentially test the breakout level. Is a long above here justified? I'm not sure. Does the fact that we came down signal weakness, or is it just a test to find sellers, and if the entry is triggered, is this a strong reason to believe we are going higher? I guess this is what retracements are all about. Any of these are good for about 5 points at least. And wow... 5 points on 10 contracts.... $1000!!! (that is when I have confidence to trade 10 contracts.. hahahaha)
a - Here is a long that can be taken, but to be fair, I didn't see this in real time. I was still hanging on to the idea of my short working, but would have more than likely exited already. I'm just not that quick about changing my mind to go in the opposite direction. But here we have the perfect 123 setup. I mean its a thing of beauty when you look at it now.
b - We come damn close to this hinge line/SL and its showing to still be holding up, so lets try for a short below. You'll notice my arrows sometimes appear as if they are a point away, sometimes only 2 ticks away. I don't think I can use ND's 1 tick entry, just seems like I would get sucked into too many bad moves, but you know... just as I'm writing this, here is what hit me. If the trade is considered, then clearly this means I'm expecting the short. And since I'm wanting to short, there is hopefully a greater chance that price will come down, because if this isn't the higher probability, why am I shorting??? So if I'm actually scared of my entry getting triggered, I am actually scared for price to do what I think it will do. So in essence, by taking the short higher up, not only is my profit increased, but my loss will also be decreased if I have to exit for a loss (but this is of course secondary to the idea that I'm going in for a profit). Hmmmm.. something to think about.
Anyway, the trade stops working but it still looks good as price rides the yellow line down, until of course there is a break.
c - Could I be so quick to get in here? Hmmm... no bar has closed about the line yet, but the series of HH and HL sure make this looked primed for breaking out now that we didn't find any sellers earlier.
d - But look at this, another great opportunity! It just takes off, and runs right back down so this is scary.
e - We really only come down to essentially test the breakout level. Is a long above here justified? I'm not sure. Does the fact that we came down signal weakness, or is it just a test to find sellers, and if the entry is triggered, is this a strong reason to believe we are going higher? I guess this is what retracements are all about. Any of these are good for about 5 points at least. And wow... 5 points on 10 contracts.... $1000!!! (that is when I have confidence to trade 10 contracts.. hahahaha)
Attachments
@k p It's really NOT about what "we" think. It's about what the "market" will do. The reason I have bolded the words above, is just to point out how you are making this about you. I am sure that is not your intention and what you may be trying to do is instill conviction in your trade with the hope of followed confidence. It's admirable, but psychologically, if it doesn't work out enough times, then you start questioning yourself.
Keep it simple.
i) Look for confirmation ("second mouse")
ii) Look for failures
Both these for starters will give you good trades.
Early entry => smaller risk => LOWER probability
Late entry => bigger risk => HIGHER probability
Both have it's place, but used under the wrong circumstances, it could prove to be detrimental pretty fast.
Last edited:
Excellent to point out.. thank-you! Similarly, RN posted in another person's journal just today that each trade has to be taken if the trade sets up, so there is no room for the "I" because once the signal is there, the trade has to be entered.
The second point you mention is pretty much what I have been all too aware of from a book I read about risk. Its an exchange of information risk for price risk. You can either have less info but a better price, or more info that the trade will work but then a worse price because you are already getting into the established move.
Its been quite a struggle for me to learn to operate in this environment trading environment of probabilities. I found it helped to hear that even ND says that she still feels this way, but she knows at least exactly what to do, so she has power over those feelings and they don't control her.
Hmmm... reading your first sentence again, I guess what I'm after is taking responsibility for the trades. I know I have no control over the market, but I have control over what I do. This of course doesn't affect what happens in the market, so I am in no way trying to contradict what you are saying, just maybe trying to rationalize how I do fit into the equation, and where I need to not make it about me as you say. I shouldn't try to be so deep late at night! LOL
The second point you mention is pretty much what I have been all too aware of from a book I read about risk. Its an exchange of information risk for price risk. You can either have less info but a better price, or more info that the trade will work but then a worse price because you are already getting into the established move.
Its been quite a struggle for me to learn to operate in this environment trading environment of probabilities. I found it helped to hear that even ND says that she still feels this way, but she knows at least exactly what to do, so she has power over those feelings and they don't control her.
Hmmm... reading your first sentence again, I guess what I'm after is taking responsibility for the trades. I know I have no control over the market, but I have control over what I do. This of course doesn't affect what happens in the market, so I am in no way trying to contradict what you are saying, just maybe trying to rationalize how I do fit into the equation, and where I need to not make it about me as you say. I shouldn't try to be so deep late at night! LOL
Kp,
I could almost guarantee you that your lack of confidence is coming from your past experiences...and also the lack of fully understanding how the market works.. For day trading, it is necessary for you to understand Market Behavior.. IMO this is where everything starts.. If you can't read the blue prints, then how are you suppose to build a house..? Market behavior is the blue print.. And trading strategies are the tools that you will need to build a house..
Market behavior means identifying the STATE of the market in REAL TIME.. Is the market about to trend? Is it trending? ranging? etc.. Answer this.. In real time can you identify a trend? Can you identify when the market is ranging? What about when the market is about to breakout of the range? That is just a few.. But identifying the STATE is just one thing.. You also have to identify when the market is about to transition to another STATE (in real time).. The market usually never stays in one STATE for the whole day...
Once you can understand what the market is doing or about to do in REAL TIME, then your confidence level will go up like crazy.. Will you be right all the time ? Of course not, but at least you will be right most of the time.. This will give you the confidence of knowing when/where to go long/short, and knowing when to hold onto winners..
Back test different trading strategies until you find one that you are comfortable with..... Create a system.. If you don't have a system (it doesn't matter if it's profitable or not) then that means you are randomly doing things.. And random acts will give you random results.. This is a promise. I don't want to confuse you, so please keep doing what are doing for now (especially if it's working)... but eventually you will have to learn what I said above..