Ok.. lets do a bit of post analysis/back testing using 5 minute trend lines for trade setups and 1 minute bars for entries. (I am leaving my lines exactly as I had them drawn because this is what I saw today to remain faithful to the live environment, even though after reloading the data things have shifted just a bit)
I'm also not sure if I should stick with a 1 point entry away from a bar, or drop down to 2 ticks. ND uses one tick, so I figure halfway between Db and ND would be good. Less gives you a smaller loss when price turns on you, more ticks might save you from not entering a losing trade from accidentally getting caught. Ok.. lets just do 1 point for today.
O - So we have the open, and its 4 minutes of chop.
A - I use this swing point with the previous low for an initial trend line.
B - Since we have this high at B before the open, I can bring bring a clone of this line up.
C - If I want to be really aggressive, 8 minutes into the open I can take a short here, but perhaps at this point, I am seeing too much buying pressure to think it will reverse here.
D - we break the DL here and I'm looking for a pullback which comes at the down arrow. It wouldn't trigger though before price comes back up. I will then use this as my new DL/LTL.
E - In real time, I already that this pink resistance line drawn, so a third failure to go above this level, not even reaching the parallel UTL would call for a short below this bar.
With a point away, the entry is 15.50, and if I want a stop just above this bar, it would be 19.50, so a 4 point stop. Yes I do have over 4 points to get to the bottom, but ouch, 4 point loss to have to sit through. (the good thing is that its well defined, and I will either let it hit profit or loss)
F - Jesus, look at the precision, it bounces off this new LTL. Lets hope I exit quick for my profit. Now am I quick enough to go long above this bar?
The entry would be at 14, but the low of the bar is at 9... so that's 5 points. Its easy to see that it works, but who knows what I would have done. For statistics sake, this is a solid trade, but based on a large stop, it might not make sense.
G - No problem going through that resistance level this time.
H - We break the OH, and also now break this green line. Mind you, since the green line broke down at D, perhaps this trend is no longer in play.
I - So does a long set up here? We did retrace back down below the UTL, but it perhaps has to be taken, but then a stop should perhaps below this bar, so an entry at 24.75 and and exit at 21.75 makes this only a 3 point loss.
At the same time, you can see the range forming, so an exit just below the range or below the OH also makes sense, which is what I did, but then I had to take the 5 point loss.
So although I know this trade is a loser, before I know how it turns out, it still looks good unless someone else can point out why it doesn't.
J - A short here could be justified now, but the 5 minute trend line is quite far away, so perhaps its just a continuation trade, not perfectly set up given that its taken in a congestion area, but it works.
K - Another short op here. We are well below the trend line, and given that we seem to be trading in channels today, the expectation of going to the bottom makes sense, but this too is now shorting in the middle of nowhere.
L - Wow, we bounce off here. In real time of course I'm seeing price come down hard. (I took a short somewhere here I think and it cost me money! I didn't have my LTL extended but jesus, if I did and I saw price coming down to meet Mr. LTL, I think I would have resisted. Well, it cost me $50 to learn that lesson!)
But jesus, look at how well this works. I have more faith in these 5 minute trend lines, so although the long at the green arrow seems like a crazy trade given the strong down move, the fact that price climbs up so high and so quickly after hitting the LTL should be good reason. The entry would be 16.25 and the low of that bar is 11.50, so ouch, this would be another 5 point loss. But baby, does it ever work. Had I also not just shorted, I would have been in a better frame of mind. The short wasn't set up, so for this analysis, it never happened, and seeing the bounce off the LTL should be a good reason to go long.
M - So price makes it to here, can't tell you why, and can't say where my exit for the long would be, but maybe I would ride it up and make sure to take a 5 point profit as it comes back down to cover the 5 point risk I had on. This would put me getting out just below the low of this bar at M.
So after price is long gone, I can use this swing point to now draw in my SL, or UTL from "I". I can't take any shorts on the way down because it didn't hit an upper line, nor do I know where it is.
N - I do see this hinge and draw it in, seems to break out the bottom, but lets not trade it for this exercise.
P - Break below the LTL, but price comes back up. Then another break, but no RET.
Q - Ah, finally a RET and its even below the line.. sweet. Lets take the short. Entry at 10.75, stop at 13.75.
Well we are stopped out, but lets now use the low to the left of Q to redraw our LTL.
R - Ok, so given the new line, we have a bounce just before R (it bounces off exactly... these 5 minute lines I think people are really watching and I think I am finally drawing them right!) Will I be quick enough to think a long above this bar is good enough? Things sure are looking like we are in a bit of a range now.
At the same time, with a short not working, does this mean a long looks better? The low at P is in fact a higher low.
Also, let me add this. The hinge that formed looked quite nice, and if price exits from the hinge and doesn't continue in the direction of the exit, going out the opposite end is now more likely. So this should give some confidence in the long. (mind you, a hinge in the middle of a trading range just isn't that good... so lets scratch that)
S - So the long worked and broke nicely above the range. Now we get a bounce from, wow... just below the UTL. So lets try for a short. Entry would be at 18.25, and the high of the entry bar puts my exit at 20.50 if the exit is one tick above.
T - Wow, another chance to short. Now here is the thing. This move up to T makes my previous short very nervous. We do in fact hit 20.50... but I might hold just because I see the downward slope of price and thinking that the top of the UTL is my line in the sand. If I exited for a loss, would I still short again after price stops me out on the highest tick but comes back down? Who knows... but this would have been a solid trade as well and it works!
U - We make it to the lower line and can exit the short, just in time before price goes back up. Will we attempt another long? The UTL sure is coming close to the LTL, the two are closing in, so this is one big hinge now.
The long is marked, and it would fill but quickly come down. The trend now of course has been down for the past hour, so lets hope this last long wasn't taken. The stop would be too far away as well mind you, so that is reason enough.
I don't add up the points, but it seems like I would be quite into the positive as opposed to where I sit today with my $169 loss (I made a dollar from that one scalp that set up properly and could have been a much bigger profit)
Let me see what I can do with the rest of the day even tough I wasn't around.
