So I came back later in the day to do more damage.
(when I get really good and people will be doubting my trades like they do so often to guys who trade via price, you will be able to refer to this post as evidence for how it wasn't always so easy!)
J - It just so happened that price bounced off 83 which I had already drawn in. I really was just looking to scalp now, going for a point or 2 by buying or selling at the top or bottom of a fairly well established range. I always say I should do it, so now I was going to try.
K - I started to follow this SL down, and of course there was some news release at 1pm, like every Wednesday, so I wasn't all that surprised with the sudden drop. Thinking about getting in on a RET somewhere, but its funny how it just went up and down, looks like there we just as many traders who wanted to buy as who wanted to sell. I can't believe this absolutely beautiful hinge that formed.
L - When hinges work, they really work, and once price drops out the top or bottom, it really goes. Here it drops out the bottom. I don't get in until here at just below 71. There was a much better place up above, you can see the RET between the two bars, so an entry between 73 and 74 would be so much better, just below this RET.
I have a terrible feedback loop that goes on in my head. At first I think this looks like a good place to short, then I wait for a bit more to see if I'm right, then I wish I had shorted up higher after price is already a few points ahead, and then I look for the next place to short, once again waiting to see if I'm right before I put the trade on! Horrible, but only experience will solve this. In fact, right here on this chart is proof why this is no good, why waiting for confirmation and then the next opportunity is more risky.
My entry here was unfortunately too late. For a few minutes it went sideways, but then started going up.
M - Here we are breaking the SL now, and had my entry been around here, where it first dropped out of the hinge, it could have been an exit for a very small loss if I got spooked. What I was in fact doing was waiting for a test of the apex, knowing that price will often come back up after a hinge exit and then continue the drop if there are no buyers.
N - Sadly here, we go through the mean, and I'm finally out about 2 points above even the mean, for a total of about 7.5 points loss. Ouch! This could have been about 4 points if I entered the exit from the hinge much sooner. In fact, maybe if I entered sooner, I would have exited at BE. But instead, since I was already down, I figured why not at least wait to test the apex. Its interesting how the more you're down, the more you're willing to wait a bit longer... a dangerous habit. I think its because its more painful to get out right before the trade starts to work again then to just get out for a greater loss. This of course sounds like a huge reason because of ego... and hence has no place in trading.
All in all, I don't think my trade was that bad. There is a hinge identified, a solid, beautiful hinge, and there is an exit. The entry is much too late, but waiting for the apex test is reasonable (if only my entry was sooner of course though.)
So now of course in my attempt to make up my 3 point loss from earlier, I have now added another 7 points to the total loss.
At no time did I consider going long, but essentially when your trade is clearly not working, this means the opposite trade is working very well. Here we went from a low of about 70 to a high of 88, 18 points, and I managed to accumulate a 7 point loss! If I was driving on a highway, I would have gone for miles in opposing traffic lane before I finally got off! LOL
P - Ok... so now we break above 83, lets go long here. There are of course better RETs lower down, but I just couldn't get into a long frame of mind. I perhaps used the level of 83 as an excuse to not go long above the nice RET just above N, but with this level being 3 points above this RET, it gives me lots of room to get out in case we bounce off 83 again, and if we break through, like we did, then I'm already in the long.
Anyway, so I'm just thinking to slowly scalp my way out of a 10 point loss, and I'm out 1.5 points later as you can see on the next bar.
Q - We seem to have some serious resistance at 87.50, but its not until the DL break that it starts looking solid. I don't do anything about this unfortunately. I was completely ready to, and being right there in the moment, I didn't want to risk it. But when I'm not quite ready to yet, I think of how easy this is when it bounces off the upper level so nicely each time. Each one of those bounces were good for maybe 3 or 4 points, but oh well.
R - Realizing how unprepared I am, its time to make lunch. I come back here, see the break above that resistance line earlier, draw in some SLs and DLs, and after this higher low here at R, I go long above the break of the SL. Seems solid enough to at least get to the previous high of 90 as before.
But something interesting happens. It takes way too long! I'm stressing out because it doesn't instantly work. I keep holding on, using 83 as an exit, which is never hit, but price certainly isn't going up either.
S - I see this damn hinge forming, and I have a target just above this to make at least one stupid point, but each high on these bars is a tick lower. Sure each low is also a tick higher, and hence the hinge forms, but if price drops out the bottom of the hinge, I'm screwed! I need price to break out the top!
T - I slide my profit target down to 2 ticks above my entry! One tick covers the commission on the trade, and the other tick will get me $5 profit. It finally hits, and I'm relieved because at the worst, I was facing another $50 loss or so. Imagine risking $50 for a $5 profit! LOL
Here is the sad part. By price coming up, it exits the hinge, which would of course favor going long right here. So as I'm getting out, other traders are piling in. We do eventually hit 90 again, although it doesn't hold, but going long where I initially did was still a 4 point trade had I held just a bit longer.
So at it stands, I am down -$(186) for the entire day. It kind of sucks, but you know, I actually don't care all that much. I think its all good experience, and had I put the trades on that I should have earlier as I indicated with those longs, it would have worked out much better. So in a way, I am just learning to force feed the trades. It might cost me a bit of money to blindly put on trades just to put some on, but I do think I'm learning something in the process and hopefully shedding my inability to act.
Oh, and one last point. Although nobody has asked, I have wondered if some people think that this journal is too focused on the money when it should in fact be focused on trading well. If this question does come up, I already have an answer.
The reason for summarizing my days in terms of dollars and not points is two fold. First, I want to make it more real, where commissions and slippage can be factors, and a point or two profit a day can in fact be a point or two loss when these things are factored in.
Second, I want to make sure that people realize I'm trading real money and not just sim. The fact that it is real money is perhaps causing me to often focus on the money, but this really isn't my intention. I am trying to trade well, and if some trades have to do with a money loss fear or motivation, which is clearly the case often, this is something that will hopefully dissipate with time.
Furthermore, I think by tracking money, this will better summarize my trading ability. Would trading one contract and making 10 points be better than trading 5 contracts and making 2 points? The dollar value would be the same, and although the guy who can make 10 points might seem like the better trader, I think the guy who walks away with the most money in a week, or month, or for the year is probably the one who deserves that title. Although the money falls into place after you learn to trade well, I am doing this for the money, not to win a contest.
So in essence, what I am saying is that that dollar value for me is a better gauge of how well I'm trading, and you can clearly see that like yesterday, even though I made over $400, I was still quite disappointed with an early exit and capturing only one third of the points available, so my focus really is on trading well, both in an easy environment, and a difficult one.
