So getting closer to the open, we couldn't get past 66, broke the DL, formed a SL, had RET for a short, and well, we are on our way down. Since the initial short wasn't entered, its now a matter of chasing the market, which I just don't want to do, but lets see what happens in 15 mins at open.
Trading NQ via Price Action
- Thread starter k p
- Start date
Saw a triple top on the minute chart, exeute
+10 points overall
+10 points overall
Aye, such a good day, lots of places to short, none taken. Twice I was dragg in the Stop Limit Order button onto the price ladder and price just blew right past me.
At any rate, lets just make this one short and sweet. The opening was rather confusing for me, didn't have much of a bias, only saw that we failed to go above 66, and we didn't go below 41. So on top of everything else I need to add to the list to watch, the opening range, lets say the first 5 or 10 minutes is crucial as we shall see because it initially sets up our short.
A - We fail to go below 48, right at the important level already on my chart.
B - We also turn around at 60, but no huge significance here.
C - This is where I think to take my first short. The rationale being that if we are in a range, I've got room until we get to 48 again to see what price does, and by putting a short one point below the previous bar, it will only be hit if price does keep dropping.
D - We break below 48, but do come back up to test.
E - We break below 41, our overnight low, but reverse.
F - We test 48 again, forming a double top, and hence a the pink thick line. Not only is this a double top, but its a double top at this important level.
G - Shorting here was another great opportunity, and price moves instantly in our favor. The shorts are plotted in real time, but the trades aren't actually taken, I think this may have been one of the ones that blew past me.
H - Another good short op, just looking for shorting below previous lows. In the past week, I have noticed that when price breaks these little consolidation areas, it often does so with force, so a tick of two below the previous low is usually enough, and it works often enough.
I - Had previous short been taken, an exit would have for sure happened to protect some profits, but here we have an opportunity again. If filled here at 29, there is still some room to go to 23 in case a double bottom forms. This is once again another zero risk trade, and Niko I believe shorted right around here as well.
So down we go, hitting a low of just below 3500.
J - Just drawing this bar in since it forms such a nice double top and makes for an easy 10 point short I would say, but I am way past looking to trade at this point since I'm already typing up my journal.
For the second attached chart, I am showing where I think Db got the 30 level from that he mentioned as a possible target, which did actually cause a deeper RET before price went lower, so it for sure had some significance. It comes from a hinge as plotted, where 30 is the apex, and its also test a few days later of this apex at 30.
The 500 level seems to come from the mean of some price action over the past month. We see price shooting above and below this mean, and also bouncing off this 500 level many times.
Its unfortunate that my previous couple of attempts at shorting below retracements in an already obvious move turned out to hurt me a bit, but in those cases, the move was still strong and each trade would have led to profit, I just scratched for a loss at the worst time. And I also have to remember that out of all the RETs on this chart on the way down, only one or two would make you scratch, so not taking them is just silly.
At any rate, lets just make this one short and sweet. The opening was rather confusing for me, didn't have much of a bias, only saw that we failed to go above 66, and we didn't go below 41. So on top of everything else I need to add to the list to watch, the opening range, lets say the first 5 or 10 minutes is crucial as we shall see because it initially sets up our short.
A - We fail to go below 48, right at the important level already on my chart.
B - We also turn around at 60, but no huge significance here.
C - This is where I think to take my first short. The rationale being that if we are in a range, I've got room until we get to 48 again to see what price does, and by putting a short one point below the previous bar, it will only be hit if price does keep dropping.
D - We break below 48, but do come back up to test.
E - We break below 41, our overnight low, but reverse.
F - We test 48 again, forming a double top, and hence a the pink thick line. Not only is this a double top, but its a double top at this important level.
G - Shorting here was another great opportunity, and price moves instantly in our favor. The shorts are plotted in real time, but the trades aren't actually taken, I think this may have been one of the ones that blew past me.
H - Another good short op, just looking for shorting below previous lows. In the past week, I have noticed that when price breaks these little consolidation areas, it often does so with force, so a tick of two below the previous low is usually enough, and it works often enough.
I - Had previous short been taken, an exit would have for sure happened to protect some profits, but here we have an opportunity again. If filled here at 29, there is still some room to go to 23 in case a double bottom forms. This is once again another zero risk trade, and Niko I believe shorted right around here as well.
So down we go, hitting a low of just below 3500.
J - Just drawing this bar in since it forms such a nice double top and makes for an easy 10 point short I would say, but I am way past looking to trade at this point since I'm already typing up my journal.
For the second attached chart, I am showing where I think Db got the 30 level from that he mentioned as a possible target, which did actually cause a deeper RET before price went lower, so it for sure had some significance. It comes from a hinge as plotted, where 30 is the apex, and its also test a few days later of this apex at 30.
The 500 level seems to come from the mean of some price action over the past month. We see price shooting above and below this mean, and also bouncing off this 500 level many times.
Its unfortunate that my previous couple of attempts at shorting below retracements in an already obvious move turned out to hurt me a bit, but in those cases, the move was still strong and each trade would have led to profit, I just scratched for a loss at the worst time. And I also have to remember that out of all the RETs on this chart on the way down, only one or two would make you scratch, so not taking them is just silly.
For Thursday May 8
Yesterday we curiously had a nice rally after hitting the bottom just below 3500. The 50% level would have been 3533 which we eventually hit and bounced off of, but close to the end of the day we rallied some more to get just below the 3548 level.
Overnight, we hit a hit of 3545, and seemed to be range bound by 3531, but just as I type this, we broke below. In fact, we bumped up against 45/44 a total of 4 times, so once again, the trade of the day seems to have been shorting below this level.
On the way down we have the 3516 level (it comes from previous price action, but even on my chart I drew a hinge which seems to have the apex at this level), the 3500 again, 3480 is fairly prominent as well. Let me just post what I have for now and just update again before the open since things are changing.
Yesterday we curiously had a nice rally after hitting the bottom just below 3500. The 50% level would have been 3533 which we eventually hit and bounced off of, but close to the end of the day we rallied some more to get just below the 3548 level.
Overnight, we hit a hit of 3545, and seemed to be range bound by 3531, but just as I type this, we broke below. In fact, we bumped up against 45/44 a total of 4 times, so once again, the trade of the day seems to have been shorting below this level.
On the way down we have the 3516 level (it comes from previous price action, but even on my chart I drew a hinge which seems to have the apex at this level), the 3500 again, 3480 is fairly prominent as well. Let me just post what I have for now and just update again before the open since things are changing.
So close to putting in trades today, but another positive day in terms of watching and analyzing price which does bring me one step closer.
A - This was first area for a short, breaking just below the overnight low. Would have to exist for BE or just a point or two perhaps. The low at C was a bit unexpected. Looking at it now, 16 was the level of the apex from the hinge, and I see in a post that Db said it was 18. 18 was a level that was tested yesterday, but I just thought price didn't come low enough to test it properly at 16.
B - Here was going to be a second short. Turning around at 33 was fairly significant. I outlined it yesterday as the 50% of the down move over night. 30 is also a significant level as well. But also what I am watching so much is the opening range, call it the first 10 minutes, and any failure to go higher or lower has carry lots of weight. So here the entry for short would be taken off the 15 second chart but with solid reasons.
C - Coming down to 18 again and REVing should have me close my short at BE.
On the way up, the RET was there for a long around 29 maybe, on the 15 sec again. Its just below the previous high at 33, but as Db would say, they tried to go down and could't so now they will try up.
What I am talking into my head now which seems to be working is that REJs on the one minute just aren't the same as on hourly charts. Those levels have to be watched carefully. But on a 1 minute chart at the open, when price fails to go higher like at 33 before, but then fails to go lower like at 18 and comes back up, the 33 just isn't as significant. If it bounces off again and forms a range, then getting in early is of course a good way to minimize risk. Waiting for a BO from what could be a possible range is also less risky they say, but then if its a FO, then you could get in at the worst time, but I guess that is what waiting for the RET is for.
I know Db cautions about entering around the means, which I understand and which is what the entry at 29 roughly is, but if you don't mind scratching, and especially here you see that they tried down and couldn't, I think going long before hitting the top makes sense since we are expecting it to go up on the failure to go down.
D - At any rate, I didn't firmly think of this at the time since I did wait for the BO, and here at D, at 37, I almost put my long in, once again, seeing a RET on the 15 second chart. What a trade this would have been!
After going long here, the rest is just managing the trade. We slow down at 45, our overnight high. We also slow down around 48, a previous important level. Then we slow down around 66, previous day high, but continue higher. This ends in a trading range as you can see, but none of this would have been a problem if the entry was made early like at D.
Such a shame I didn't take my trades, just like yesterday, but its at least good that I am prepping properly, and what trades I do think about turn out quite well indeed. I am also not chasing the market by entering market orders on the way up which I think is a good thing, to practice restraint when the initial entry is missed.
A - This was first area for a short, breaking just below the overnight low. Would have to exist for BE or just a point or two perhaps. The low at C was a bit unexpected. Looking at it now, 16 was the level of the apex from the hinge, and I see in a post that Db said it was 18. 18 was a level that was tested yesterday, but I just thought price didn't come low enough to test it properly at 16.
B - Here was going to be a second short. Turning around at 33 was fairly significant. I outlined it yesterday as the 50% of the down move over night. 30 is also a significant level as well. But also what I am watching so much is the opening range, call it the first 10 minutes, and any failure to go higher or lower has carry lots of weight. So here the entry for short would be taken off the 15 second chart but with solid reasons.
C - Coming down to 18 again and REVing should have me close my short at BE.
On the way up, the RET was there for a long around 29 maybe, on the 15 sec again. Its just below the previous high at 33, but as Db would say, they tried to go down and could't so now they will try up.
What I am talking into my head now which seems to be working is that REJs on the one minute just aren't the same as on hourly charts. Those levels have to be watched carefully. But on a 1 minute chart at the open, when price fails to go higher like at 33 before, but then fails to go lower like at 18 and comes back up, the 33 just isn't as significant. If it bounces off again and forms a range, then getting in early is of course a good way to minimize risk. Waiting for a BO from what could be a possible range is also less risky they say, but then if its a FO, then you could get in at the worst time, but I guess that is what waiting for the RET is for.
I know Db cautions about entering around the means, which I understand and which is what the entry at 29 roughly is, but if you don't mind scratching, and especially here you see that they tried down and couldn't, I think going long before hitting the top makes sense since we are expecting it to go up on the failure to go down.
D - At any rate, I didn't firmly think of this at the time since I did wait for the BO, and here at D, at 37, I almost put my long in, once again, seeing a RET on the 15 second chart. What a trade this would have been!
After going long here, the rest is just managing the trade. We slow down at 45, our overnight high. We also slow down around 48, a previous important level. Then we slow down around 66, previous day high, but continue higher. This ends in a trading range as you can see, but none of this would have been a problem if the entry was made early like at D.
Such a shame I didn't take my trades, just like yesterday, but its at least good that I am prepping properly, and what trades I do think about turn out quite well indeed. I am also not chasing the market by entering market orders on the way up which I think is a good thing, to practice restraint when the initial entry is missed.
DO this, when you spot a trade, take it, place the stop 1 point away, if stopped in but price doesn't go against you reenter, do that as many times as necessary to position yourself.
If you lose, is demo money, so you cant buy a demo house in the Hamptons, who cares?
After you do this a couple of times you might feel different, at least that's what happened to me.
DO this, when you spot a trade, take it, place the stop 1 point away, if stopped in but price doesn't go against you reenter, do that as many times as necessary to position yourself.
If you lose, is demo money, so you cant buy a demo house in the Hamptons, who cares?
After you do this a couple of times you might feel different, at least that's what happened to me.
Thanks Niko... I am actually very ready to do it with real money, and yes, knowing I can just scratch right away is the ticket.
Its silly at this point to be honest with regards to not placing that real trade. There is absolutely no rational reason and I wouldn't care the slightest if I lose $100, or 5 points. I know that trading well is what is of utmost importance for long term survival, and this week has been quite good, so I am hoping this is helping. That opening range I am feeling quite comfortable with now, understanding the swings and then reacting based on the rejections. It almost seems simple!
I was kicking myself yesterday for not getting in when it was all quite clear, and today its unfortunate as well given the double bottom which is so obvious. What I have been waiting for is these low risk trades, and these past two days we have had price moving instantly in our favor.
Its not like there won't be more opportunity, and every extra day of practice only adds to the confidence.
One more day this week!
So it seems like we have a similar analysis as yesterday given where we are now. Overnight, we have a range from 3520 to 3538, midpoint being 3529.
Its important to note that the low at 3520 is just two points above the low at 3518, which also set up the wonderful long yesterday. Niko pointed out the huge hinge that is forming in the longer term trend which has an apex at 3550, very close to the level of 48 we have already outlined.
Hmmm... other than that, I think most things are the same as before, and I am leaving the levels on my chart from yesterday.
Right night, we are just approaching that high of 38... will be interesting to see what happens there even though we are still 30 mins away from the open.
Its important to note that the low at 3520 is just two points above the low at 3518, which also set up the wonderful long yesterday. Niko pointed out the huge hinge that is forming in the longer term trend which has an apex at 3550, very close to the level of 48 we have already outlined.
Hmmm... other than that, I think most things are the same as before, and I am leaving the levels on my chart from yesterday.
Right night, we are just approaching that high of 38... will be interesting to see what happens there even though we are still 30 mins away from the open.
Its funny today because the prep didn't seem as juicy today, not all that specific about what I would do and where, and the day kinda turned out to be a wishy washy day as well. Finally took some real trades though... lets see how they turned out!
A - We hit a high of 35 at the open, and reject that fairly quickly. I am of course reluctant to do anything until we get to the bounds of the overnight range at 38 and 20.
B - We hit a low of 21.
C - Back to a high of 34, noting that its below the high at A. The blue dotted line at 29 marks the midpoint of the overnight range, but as this price action is setting up, 28 looks to be the midpoint so far. Seeing the chart now, perhaps a good trade was shorting after reaching the lower high here, but where? We have a few overlapping bars, then perhaps we see a RET at around 24 marked in by the red arrow where a short could have been taken. Of course this is in the middle of nowhere, and so close to the overnight low at 20. But I have mentioned before that at the open, these levels will more than likely be broken, so trying up twice didn't work, we should think down looks more likely. Can't think of all this in real time though as clearly as I said it now.
D - This area is now where I am really looking for a trade. We breached the previous low at B, we breached the overnight now of 20, but there was hardly a RET until we hit that red line at 14. We hit a low of 14, reverse, but still have a series of lower highs on the bars, buyers just aren't willing to pay.
E - So here I finally place in a stop limit order to go short. That old level of 14 shouldn't really be on my chart anymore, can't find significance for it now, but at least its still a decent RET on the one minute to drop below the overnight low so a legitimate trade nonetheless. Sadly, gotta scratch. Looked good for about a minute and then it didn't. Hitting a low at 10 has no significance to me, I thought we could at least go to 3500, but oh well.
Since this was in the middle of nowhere, SAR doesn't enter my mind, but going long instead would have been good. Doesn't matter, didn't happen.
F - This whole area at F is just one big blob... chop! It ends up being roughly around the mean of the action today, but at the time, I really didn't know if we were still going up or down, we are after all back in that range from overnight, so I'm waiting for something better.
G - I think better comes along here. We breakout from the overnight high and I get in on a RET, based on a 15 sec chart. I'm in the money for a few seconds!!!! .... but..... next bar forms a lower high, and I'm out for I think only 3 tick loss.
So many overlapping bars form after this, happy to be out.
H - 10 minutes later, we form a double top. No way did i see it at the time, but here its illustrated quite nice. Perhaps once we drop below the red dashed line at 36 we could start to see it more clearly, but these bars overlap so much that I just don't see this. Of course now, price follows a beautiful SL down, but its hard to see in the moment.
I - As I'm typing up my journal, watching price drop, I see we are approaching the low of the day at 10. We seem to stop just at 11 and REV, so I try and place in a long just to track. It would be filled at 16, and takes off. Lets try another on the next RET at 20 and watch them as I type some more.
Shame how the day turned out, but I feel not too bad about my trades. I'm down only 2.5 points, and today was tough. Most importantly, I finally placed some trades.
Today is certainly a mean reverting day. Low of 10 and high of 40 gives us a mean of roughly 25 which is where all those trades happened in that blob I circled. It is too bad that I missed the whole down move. Even those two longs at the end now appear to be working.
A - We hit a high of 35 at the open, and reject that fairly quickly. I am of course reluctant to do anything until we get to the bounds of the overnight range at 38 and 20.
B - We hit a low of 21.
C - Back to a high of 34, noting that its below the high at A. The blue dotted line at 29 marks the midpoint of the overnight range, but as this price action is setting up, 28 looks to be the midpoint so far. Seeing the chart now, perhaps a good trade was shorting after reaching the lower high here, but where? We have a few overlapping bars, then perhaps we see a RET at around 24 marked in by the red arrow where a short could have been taken. Of course this is in the middle of nowhere, and so close to the overnight low at 20. But I have mentioned before that at the open, these levels will more than likely be broken, so trying up twice didn't work, we should think down looks more likely. Can't think of all this in real time though as clearly as I said it now.
D - This area is now where I am really looking for a trade. We breached the previous low at B, we breached the overnight now of 20, but there was hardly a RET until we hit that red line at 14. We hit a low of 14, reverse, but still have a series of lower highs on the bars, buyers just aren't willing to pay.
E - So here I finally place in a stop limit order to go short. That old level of 14 shouldn't really be on my chart anymore, can't find significance for it now, but at least its still a decent RET on the one minute to drop below the overnight low so a legitimate trade nonetheless. Sadly, gotta scratch. Looked good for about a minute and then it didn't. Hitting a low at 10 has no significance to me, I thought we could at least go to 3500, but oh well.
Since this was in the middle of nowhere, SAR doesn't enter my mind, but going long instead would have been good. Doesn't matter, didn't happen.
F - This whole area at F is just one big blob... chop! It ends up being roughly around the mean of the action today, but at the time, I really didn't know if we were still going up or down, we are after all back in that range from overnight, so I'm waiting for something better.
G - I think better comes along here. We breakout from the overnight high and I get in on a RET, based on a 15 sec chart. I'm in the money for a few seconds!!!! .... but..... next bar forms a lower high, and I'm out for I think only 3 tick loss.
So many overlapping bars form after this, happy to be out.
H - 10 minutes later, we form a double top. No way did i see it at the time, but here its illustrated quite nice. Perhaps once we drop below the red dashed line at 36 we could start to see it more clearly, but these bars overlap so much that I just don't see this. Of course now, price follows a beautiful SL down, but its hard to see in the moment.
I - As I'm typing up my journal, watching price drop, I see we are approaching the low of the day at 10. We seem to stop just at 11 and REV, so I try and place in a long just to track. It would be filled at 16, and takes off. Lets try another on the next RET at 20 and watch them as I type some more.
Shame how the day turned out, but I feel not too bad about my trades. I'm down only 2.5 points, and today was tough. Most importantly, I finally placed some trades.
Today is certainly a mean reverting day. Low of 10 and high of 40 gives us a mean of roughly 25 which is where all those trades happened in that blob I circled. It is too bad that I missed the whole down move. Even those two longs at the end now appear to be working.