Trading NQ via Price Action

[k p]

Kp,
For example, multiple people have told you to write a plan (including me), and you still have not yet..

Please don't think you are ahead of the curve until you can produce consistent results... Yes you are making progress, but until you can make money consistently then don't talk about being ahead of the curve.. I can bet you haven't even back test one idea fully..

Listen , I'm not trying to bash you, but I'm just trying to point out some of your weaknesses .. How about you take one trading idea and back test it for no less than 3 months... And come back to me with the results ... If you aren't willing to do that then there is nothing to discuss ..

Opps.. I forgot to address this part since I went off on a tangent with my rant.

You see... I've still got this ongoing internal conflict. What I am looking at isn't something set in stone, not a precise pattern. If I see ND's clearly set up trade, the 5/1 BOPB, then I know exactly how this works and I can take it. But when I see a retracement, as in from SLA, I want to evaluate it a bit better. Not every retracement is the same. I just don't know if I can write down every factor that might jump into my head.

Now this certainly might be trading by way of "feel", which is understand is random and no good for trading, but I just don't have all the variables worked out yet. So by looking forward right now and so called sim trading, I am adding to the stuff that I need to look out for. For example, every 123 setup is not the same. In a strong down trend, no way would I take a 123 reversal trade. But as ND has been pointing out, if we clear a range that formed before, and we pull back to it, then this is stronger.

I just don't have a plan well defined enough to back test it, that is the problem I am having, but as I consider my sim trades, they certainly have been working out well, but none of this is still clear enough to put down on paper.

 

[k p]

How about you take one trading idea and back test it for no less than 3 months... And come back to me with the results ... If you aren't willing to do that then there is nothing to discuss ..

Here is actually a perfect example, one of the charts I posted earlier. So on the one hand, I can think automatically that I have down slopping channel, so enter at W where I mark the short, have my stop a few ticks above this bar, and wait for the bottom of the channel.

But you see, I have already that double bottom at 53 that jumps out. So now, I no longer think about the bottom of the channel, I have a this level of support that might come into play so I need to be quick to take a profit there and potentially go long. How do I put this in a trading plan? A trading plan to me seems like automated trading, meaning put the trade on and walk away. But then what about the trade management aspect?

Its like auto pilot on an airplane. We program them and it can pretty much fly the plane, but we still put a pilot into the seat for the stuff that will come up that we haven't planned for.

 

[NoDoji]

If anything, its ND who provided more specifics recently about her exact trade, the 5/1 BOPB...

Tell me that instead of marking my charts I need to pick one setup and go test it.

Look at it logically. You have someone who's a self-professed professional ultra profitable trader telling you he and others like him will never share their methods because they'll lose their edge. So you have no idea what they do or if their methods actually produce consistent profits.

And you have someone who illustrated a simple price action concept step-by-step at the hard right edge and even included some ideas for entry and profit target management. You can quickly put this concept to the test on any instrument and prove that it works and has worked for at least a decade.

So instead of marking up charts and exposing your most precious trading tool (your mind) to negative conditions, just take that setup and go test it.

Then trade it.

Then wash, rinse, and repeat.

All the best to you!

 

[k p]

Look at it logically. You have someone who's a self-professed professional ultra profitable trader telling you he and others like him will never share their methods because they'll lose their edge. So you have no idea what they do or if their methods actually produce consistent profits.

And you have someone who illustrated a simple price action concept step-by-step at the hard right edge and even included some ideas for entry and profit target management. You can quickly put this concept to the test on any instrument and prove that it works and has worked for at least a decade.

So instead of marking up charts and exposing your most precious trading tool (your mind) to negative conditions, just take that setup and go test it.

I couldn't agree more. Its absolutely true that I'm bad with the backtesting, but I put extra effort into my forward testing. Sometimes price doesn't actually BO... hence why in my write-up today I wrote this:

I - Here is the 5 min SL from overnight... wow.... do we really bounce off here to go lower? ND has her BOPB entry, and she once annotated a chart where she showed how she would take a bounce from a trend line in a well defined trading range/channel. This isn't exactly a channel as I'm using a long term 5 min SL, but the idea is the same I think. I wonder if she has any more slides for not a BOPB entry, but a BOTL entry (bounce off trend line)

So I am also looking at this type of trade as well. What's interesting here is that after 3 tries of trying to break above 83, the short at M seemed exceptionally logical, even if only to make it to the bottom of the range, so I have both this along with the 5 min SL and price not wanting to cross it. But once again, I have no idea how to put all of this in a trading plan because this isn't exactly a "set-up", its more of watching what traders are doing reacting to imbalances between demand and supply. (yikes... I just know someone is gonna rip this apart since I'm "reacting"!)

 

[pauk]

Look at it logically. You have someone who's a self-professed professional ultra profitable trader telling you he and others like him will never share their methods because they'll lose their edge. So you have no idea what they do

And no way of finding out, lol. Makes you wonder why bother mentioning it at all.
It's like trying to guess someone's name.

I always find it weird how such gurus can't even at least mention what it is. Surely there'd be a lot more one would need to know in order to become profitable!
A simple muttering of it's existence would turn the markets on their head!
Like if someone who dismissed charts/TA/DepthofMarket info/Time+sales etc etc said ''I use a spreadsheet with special mathematical formulas based on volume, statistics and astrology'', I'd know what they do but they wouldn't have given their 'edge' away as I still wouldn't have a clue what to do.

 

[k p]

And no way of finding out, lol. Makes you wonder why bother mentioning it at all.

And this is exactly why Db doesn't get into the whole P&L game. He shows his method, anyone can evaluate it, anyone can see if he really makes money or not based on this method if they so care to investigate. I love how in rebuttal to so many people he asks to see their chart, their trades. He doesn't care to see their P&L, he wants to see where they put their trades on to see if these are bullshit lucky entries or actually based on something. But nobody ever provides this so we are always left to wonder. I mean its fine if people don't want to share their method, but then they cannot be making the claims they make and offering trading advice, etc.

 

[bh_prop]

I will make a humble suggestion that may help you KP in lieu of continuing to journal in the method you have been.

Since sim trading is not available to you on your platform, why not do exactly what you mentioned: identify your entry price, your stop price, profit target, etc on a spreadsheet. track things like max adverse excursion, max positive excursion, draw the SL, and DL in real time, not with the benefit of hindsight and you will find that you have to fan them far more often than you expect. You can "categorize" the setups with simple descriptions such as "DL break", "LH, LL", "Double bottom" etc. Of course you have to be honest with yourself: if you took a trade and it starts to go against you and you find evidence on a higher timeframe chart that woulda, shoulda prevented you from taking said trade, you can't pretend it didn't happen, just manage the trade the best you can and record the results. At least this way you would be building a setup performance history during real time rather than simply jotting down thoughts at different turn junctures during the day on a 1 min chart.

re-posting what i typed earlier since it may have gotten lost in all the negative clutter in your thread today . . .

 

[MarketAddict]

Here is actually a perfect example, one of the charts I posted earlier. So on the one hand, I can think automatically that I have down slopping channel, so enter at W where I mark the short, have my stop a few ticks above this bar, and wait for the bottom of the channel.

But you see, I have already that double bottom at 53 that jumps out. So now, I no longer think about the bottom of the channel, I have a this level of support that might come into play so I need to be quick to take a profit there and potentially go long. How do I put this in a trading plan? A trading plan to me seems like automated trading, meaning put the trade on and walk away. But then what about the trade management aspect?

Its like auto pilot on an airplane. We program them and it can pretty much fly the plane, but we still put a pilot into the seat for the stuff that will come up that we haven't planned for.

That wasn't a bad trade.. I would of got out when I saw price couldn't close below the double bottom.. But back to the plan.. A plan has nothing to do with automation at all.. Who told that? Not me!! I can guarantee you most profitable traders on here trades manually.. and if they do have an automated strategy it's separate from their main strategy.... If you are day trading, I doubt you want to walk away from any trades you are in.. Anything could happen.. Plus what about those trades that you what to make breakeven? Stop making things so hard..

If you want to get out of your trade and go long on support then that's ok.. Just back test it to see if that works.. And if it does then include it to your plan..My trading plan does include if price makes a double bottom then be cautious or get out..

You can quickly put this concept to the test on any instrument and prove that it works and has worked for at least a decade.

So instead of marking up charts and exposing your most precious trading tool (your mind) to negative conditions, just take that setup and go test it.

Then trade it.

Then wash, rinse, and repeat.

I'm glad Nodoji post this so you can see I'm not just talking just to talk.. Basically she is saying what I am saying.. Which is, take one set up and back test it (3-6 months or more ) and trade it..

Good luck

 

[k p]

re-posting what i typed earlier since it may have gotten lost in all the negative clutter in your thread today . . .

Yes.. it did get a bit lost.

This does look like something I could do. In fact, I was already doing this... not exactly with a spreadsheet, but with my P&L where I would look at the end of the day to see if what I was doing worked! LOL The trouble of course was the random entries. If it was only the same entry, it would have gone much better!

 

[k p]

But back to the plan.. A plan has nothing to do with automation at all.. Who told that? Not me!! I can guarantee you most profitable traders on here trades manually.. and if they do have an automated strategy it's separate from their main strategy.... If you are day trading, I doubt you want to walk away from any trades you are in.. Anything could happen.. Plus what about those trades that you what to make breakeven? Stop making things so hard..

If you want to get out of your trade and go long on support then that's ok.. Just back test it to see if that works.. And if it does then include it to your plan..My trading plan does include if price makes a double bottom then be cautious or get out.

I guess the confusion for me is this. So say I first outline what it means for price to be in a channel based on a 5 min chart. Then I outline the trade setup, which luckily is usually an entry above or below a bar, with a stop above or below some previous swing high or swing low, and a profit target at another swing high or swing low that is hopefully greater than what the stop loss has to be. But once I start saying ok, in case a double bottom forms, do this, then how often am I actually going to see a double bottom when looking at these channels? This double bottom within this channel here looks unique to me. I would also have to categorize double bottoms in the sense of are they a double bottom exact to the tick, or is just within a point close enough. Then I have to look at is this double bottom only 10 minutes away, or 30 minutes away, because it might make a difference with regards to how long ago we tried to penetrate this same level. So now I have so many different variations of just this one setup.

But I certainly understand what everyone is saying with regards to backtesting, its just that setting up the prior conditions that you are looking for seem to be the tricky bit.