Aye, a day full of... hmm... I wouldn't call them mistakes because that would imply I knew what to do and did the wrong thing, which isn't the case since I don't have any plan set out yet. So I would just call them a string of gambles that didn't pay out. Yes, I think that sounds about right.
O - Just before the open, we have some great downward pressure. For the hour before the open, I had to keep lowering my OL line since price kept dropping. So naturally, at the open, this selling pressure continues and I get in on the first bar.
A - The selling does continue after my entry for about a point but then turns back up. I'm hoping we turn around at the OL, but we go back up through it and I'm out for a 3 point loss so I started at -$64. The exit was at 1 point above the OL, so its not bad, but still not good to start with a loss.
B - Here is what I keep thinking these days. If I exit a trade for a loss, hence if I bought here, am I exiting because its going up? If its going up, I should just right away go into a long. Now if I don't think its going up, then of course it might turn right back down which will suck since I just exited a short for a loss. Of course when you have no idea the best thing to do is just not be in a trade, but looking at this logically, if an exit isn't based on emotion, then buying pressure is overwhelming selling pressure, so a long could be justified, but if there isn't a case for going long, then exiting a short is just based on fear.
Here it clearly was, but it takes me a few moments.
C - So now I enter a long here, but its exactly 5 points above where I bought before to exit my short for a loss. But of course I don't want to miss out so I buy, but I'm out for a 2 point loss, just before price turns back up. Of course my exit is based on the trade not working right away and wanting to keep my losses small since I just started with a loss, so its for all the wrong reasons.
D - So then I see what looks like a little range form and 4013 seems to be a bit of support, so when price drops below, I short. It does looks good to me even now given the break of the DL. It turns around quick and goes right back into that congestion area. The plan should really be to get out right away, to cut the loses short, and since price didn't take off down like I thought it might given what I thought was an exit from a range of area of congestion, the exit should not have been at the top of that range, as outlined by the pink line, but rather, the exit should be at the bottom of the range since price enters inside the area of unknown again. (unknown meaning we don't know which way it will break)
So far today I am literally just giving out money by selling at the bottom and buying at the top.
I think I'm at about -$180.
E - By the time we break out here out of the range my "no fear" attitude is just about all used up, but I guess I have good reason to suspect price turning back down since it could just be faking out the top. So I don't go long, but of course this would work beautifully.
Now of course I'm also thinking that none of this would be a problem if I just bought down at B or C and held after price didn't want to go down any further right at the open, but since I don't have that luxury now, to get into a trade that is long gone, I'm trying to find a way to salvage today.
F - Now this is where it gets juicy, and its about the only thing I've studied in depth. We are at the OH, and sure enough price does turn around 3 ticks below the high. I know I'd be shorting into an obvious up move, but these trades do work damn well when you get the level right, and if they don't, your stop can be tight. It does work here for a good 5 or 6 points, but of course I have no confidence to take it.
G - Here I will mark a swing low that could form the bottom of a range, and getting to this level breaks the DL, but I'm not gonna be so quick to short this time like I did at D.
H - So now I short here. I notice that we have a lower high, 3 bars of the same high, and although we might have a bounce at G, I will already be in a short higher up so I can either exit the short quickly at BE, or even already be in a short in case we break through the levels at G.
I of course don't hold too long, and I'm out for a tiny profit.
I - Here it looks like we once again have a fake out the bottom of this range. Now perhaps I'm a bit too quick to call these things ranges, they are after all just a couple of swing lows that somewhat match up, but its what I see.
This is the important thing though. When it fakes out the bottom, it can either come back up to the exit level to test it and continue down, or it can go back into the range to spend more time again there, or it can even go right through and out the top.
When I took a short at D that failed, price went out the top only 5 minutes later. So each time I have a trade that didn't take off, I really should be focusing on the opposite trade, and in the case of range, it might very well be that the reason the short doesn't work and price goes back into the range is because there is too much buying pressure.
J - This time we go out the top of the "range", which also happens to be at the OH, and we have no problem going through.
K - This high at 33 looks to be in the middle of nowhere, but if we look at yesterday, 31 would be the midpoint of an area of congestion, so this could very well be the level traders were shooting for.
L - I try one more trade here, a long off the OH. After breaking through, this area of resistance can now be support. I'm out for only 2 ticks, and although we do go higher, eventually we come down again and break through.
So it looks like I end at -$160.
CONCLUSION
So its a pretty crappy result today. I knew not to expect another huge drop today like yesterday, but I hoped for it!
I clearly got chopped up in stupid back and forth action, exiting trades just because of fear and because of the small losses which unfortunately added up to over 8 points now which wouldn't be that easy to get back, so I better not even try. Its not even a matter of making up the loss, its a matter of trading well.
I guess its easy to look at a chart at the end of the day, but my gosh, if I step back just a little, I think it makes more sense.
I'm disappointed in myself for not having something solid to work with yet... I keep just dicking around. I'm also disappointed that when I get into a move, I don't give it any room. Every day there are literally only 2 trades perhaps to make. Since I've been losing $200 on some days, I can easily open up my stops a bit, look at the macro view, and get into a move early and hold for longer. This would solve quite a few problems I think. (The idea here is set an expectation of 2 trades and be willing to hold through a 5 point stop if its a continuation of the trend trade) (the trades at an extreme level like an OL or OH can have much tighter stops I think)
I've gotten better with getting into a move earlier in some respects, but even that long at C today was far too late after I exited the short via buying much lower down. Any place down there was a great place to go long and just hold.
I'm so concerned with trying to just make a few points that I in fact end up losing many more than this. I can also not that price hasn't even gotten to 50% of the drop from yesterday (68 to 10 gives us a 50% level of roughly 39), and since we turned around just below 34 and are heading down, holding a short from yesterday would be much better than all the stuff I'm doing today.
But at the same time, I also know that I just need little tweaks. If I'm going to continue with my day trading and scalping, my exits have to be faster, which they can be, and then I have to be quick to see the trade in the opposite direction. And if I'm gonna take a longer term view, then I have to look for a good place to get in and hold without being spooked.
From the open today we only went down 5 points, but we went over 20 points above. So much opportunity, and yet I'm down -$160.
I'm actually not that mad today, just frustrated that it seems so clear, and I know what I should have done or not done after the fact, but in the moment, I'm a bit too eager to trade as Db would put it. The higher time frame chart would help with this as well, to give me more time to think and not take trades on a whim. Plus so much of this stuff on the one minute is somewhat noise in the whole grand scheme of the macro trend and its very much controlling what I do, hence I'm giving control to the market which isn't a good thing.
UPDATE
M - Took one more trade.. saw this hinge form, took a short out the bottom and I had intended to hold for a long time, but 6 or 7 minutes was enough for me. I see the downtrend in the macro sense, I see that the previous swing low at "I" will more than likely cause a bit of congestion, but I was scared that it might break up, and so I exit for a couple of points. Of course it drops shortly after my exit.
I think that because of my fears for now, I need to set targets, something like a 2:1 profit to loss ratio, keep a nice stop of about 5 points, so try for 10 points, and just let the trade work out. Taking for of a macro sense is, as I think Db would say, easier, and since I want to make money, because I really do, I need to change things up. Of course going for 10 points isn't exactly taking the macro sense, but here at least, ever since we hit a hit of 33, we are just coming back down. Lots of entries might stop you out if you get in at the wrong place and only have a 2 or 3 point stop, but this doesn't change the fact that the trend is down and the day might very well end 10 or 20 points lower once we get through all this congestion.
Anyway, so it looks like I end at -$129 now.
