I gotta say, today was quite the emotional roller-coaster, but not in a bad way, just that I had to really be tough. Another not so great result though, but my eyes are for sure wide open now. I had the right idea the whole day, but the same problems keep coming up over and over again. Honestly, I never thought in a million years that I would be so unable to adapt. I am literally stuck in a loop that I clearly see, and hopefully one that I am doing something about now going forward.
O - So here is the open, but I'm eager to see where it really is once the charts are reloaded. It kind of sucks that I have to worry about the time being off by a whole 30 seconds, but not much I can do about it now.
This is partly what worries me about SLA entries. They are based on the bars lining up just right, and contingent on the highs or lows being just a tick higher or lower to initiate a trade. When the time is off by this much, the way these bars are packaged from the ticks can completely change the picture, and I've seen often that SLA trades go from being obvious, to it being obvious that the trade should never be taken once the data is reloaded. So this is why I am getting off track and mixing in so much other stuff with my wild entries.
I should also note that just below this open is a cyan line which brings forward a fairly prominent support level from overnight, and just before the open, we see price does bounce off here initially.
A - We first try up, but don't go far, so back down we come, through the opening level and the support level.
B - I think its fairly safe to enter a short here, and bam, I'm selling a bottom! You can see the exit on the very next minute.
So I start my day at -$84.
C - Price goes higher ever so slightly again, but we bounce off here again, forming a double top, and back down we come. It does take 5 minutes for price to come back down to my entry level, so that would be a bit to long to keep holding on, but it doesn't stay long at the level of A and C, and so once again, I'm buying and selling at the worst places.
D - So I try for another short here, which goes against me right away, but I do get out for a bit of profit. The SL does break, but can be fanned.
E - I try for another short here. Look at how much price goes against me! I'm holding on with nerves of steel. This one goes against me almost 5 points, but I'm gonna use the previous swing high as an exit, swing we don't breach. It would be very expensive, but by this point, I can see an obvious downtrend with terribly large retracements, so this is reason enough to hold on.
F - The exit in this case is a good one since price didn't go much lower, but it is based on wanting to just take a bit of profit. I fully realize this isn't a winning strategy though, to hold through a major loss but be willing to exit for only a little bit of profit.
So I think I'm at about -$40 now.
G - So we have broken a few SLs now, and after the last one even formed a higher low, we can draw in a DL. After we clear all the other highs from earlier, I figure its safe to go long. So I try....
And I'm sitting there waiting, wondering why nothing is showing up. Alas, I never did hit confirm. You see, to enter a trade, I slide the STL button to enter a stop limit order and drop it on the ladder at a price point. Then a window pops up telling me what will happen and I have to confirm. I figure this is good, because it gives me a change to double check everything, as sliding a different button sometimes changes the order from a buy to sell and completely reverses how the ladder works, but at the same time, it gives me more excuses often to hesitate and miss the trade. You know all those times price blows past me cause I'm not quick enough? Its because this confirmation takes a couple of extra seconds, and by the time its done, price has gone past me and the order is cancelled by the system.
Anyway, so no long here.. shame. I figured we could at least go to the previous highs of A-C and I could then re-evaluate if I wanted to keep holding or get out.
H - So as we get close, I take the little line from the double top at A-C earlier and extend it to here. This bar right below H closes midway, so I figure that is close enough and price is coming down now. You can see a trade on the next bar, a short (the red triangle). You can also see a blue triangle a minute later, the exit for a loss. Of course price comes back down again, but I'm already out.
So now I'm back down again to about -$90. This exit bar did penetrate the level, but only slightly.
I - So I try my short again here. We had a couple of tries at breaking through, which we couldn't with force, and we are now below the low of where I first tried to short. So I short again. Its a little messy here, not sure why, but it goes against me right away... AGAIN!
I hold through even a bigger loss, and I'm out BE, hence why the two triangles are at the same level.
Its really funny how money changes everything. If I didn't just suffer through a loss, I would think great, price is coming down again, good confirmation for a short. But holding trough the loss, I'm just desperate to get out for BE. Of course price goes even lower, then tries to breakthrough again, and fails again.
J - DL breaks, but lets face is, this is all messy. I should only be looking for trades at the extremes.
K - We go up again, penetrate the previous resistance level, but don't go far. A good down move starts from here... but its not so obvious in real time. There is a huge down bar, over 6 points, but its all messy, and also that previous resistance level isn't something major like a PDH or PDL, or at least an OH or OL which are much juicier.
But you know, shorting after 3 bars tried to go higher but can't, and shorting right at the top is a low cost trade and I could be out for less than 2 points loss if I tried, and look at how much I have to gain. This is what I want to focus on, taking loss cost trades at extremes that either go somewhere right away or they don't. If I have to take a 2 point loss then I know its not working. But the trades I'm taking, 2 point losses don't invalidate the trade, so I'm forced to hold longer and its just too nerve wracking.
L - So as we come down, I extend the previous low from F to here via the yellow line. You see me take a short because I saw the penetration, then the swing back up, so I figure I can get in for a better price higher up and monopolize more on the down move. Once again, I have to sit through a 2.5 point loss, and I'm out for a small profit, with price of course going lower nicely right after my exit. Now this could have just as easily been a long really. That bar looks like a REJ bar, so I need to figure out what I will be looking for to think if I should be going long or short.
M - So around here, in this box, I am itching for a short. All the way down were places to short, and into view on the chart comes the levels of 41/40 which are quite prominent, so making it down to here since we are close I think is a high probability. The climb back up to M from the earlier lows was quite strong, but I could have shorted and made a few points on the down move to N.
N - What I see now, although I didn't in real time, is that we are getting more of an extended base forming. Although this entire down move has RETs that are almost 5 points high, the zig zag pattern down is prominent. By the time we get here, although we bounce off the SL at M, we don't really go lower, and we have 10 minutes of not being able to go lower. That last bar at the end, the huge one, breaks through the previous lower high and this should be a sign.
P - Everything I just said in N I just didn't see in real time though. Here is a classic SLA long. I think nothing of it, I'm just waiting for the drop, I'm waiting to get to 40/41. Sadly, this is a 10 point trade in only 5 minutes, but I just didn't see it. In a way, if I'm only going to be trading at the extremes (levels outlined in prep), then its ok to miss an SLA long in the middle of nowhere, even if it does look good now and well above the range at the bottom.
Q - So I bring forward the swing high at K and I'm thinking.. what to do here. Waiting for any confirmation of a direction other than on a tick chart makes an entry much further away from the level. It is a risk not knowing if a long or short is appropriate, but if you short 1 point below the level, and exit 1 point above the level, its only 2 points perhaps to find out maybe a short wasn't a good idea. My trades so far include taking 4 point losses, so at least a trade like this at a level that should really do something makes more sense, but of course I am hoping to hammer out something that is more than just a guessing game.
Price does turn down, and since I'm only looking to cover my losses for today, I could have done it with just this one short.
R - So another chance to short here if I wanted to. But here is the thing. Price didn't exactly drop too far below Q, so maybe each time it comes back up is that much more chance of a breakthrough. Since I have my charts printed out now, I can easily count what is more likely, and especially given multiple attacks of a level.
Phew.. I'm tired from typing. This level is turning into a mean with so many trades on either side. Nothing good here. This does mean though that if a trade, long or short is entered at this level, an exit for BE is highly likely. If you short at the bottom, a trip back up to the top of the range is a loss worth too many points, and then seeing price come back down causes too much pain. This is what I've been doing and what I'm trying to avoid.
SUMMARY (continued in the next post)
