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Trading NQ via Price Action
- Thread starter k p
- Start date
Point is that incorporating volume prevented you from profiting from a 30pt downmove and a so far 25pt reversal. You may think that it helps you and feel that it helps you and believe that it helps you, but if you insist on using it, you're looking forward to a great deal of testing to determine whether it actually helps you or not.
Yes, I appreciate your insight on this. Having read Wyckoff discuss volume to a great extent, and seeing it in your ebook as well, (granted, volume for daily charts), I thought there is something to it, and that watching it just as an aside might lead one day to being able to use it.
But you are absolutely right that today, what was in fact a good day given that the movements were slower and hence allowed more time to think, it prevented me from taking trades. I shall get rid of it from my one minute charts, but still have it up on my hourly as discussed to just use as a guide to separate the days.
Why so shy on PNL?
Drownpruf, you are welcome to post in my journal, but I ask that you please keep this civil and on topic.
I haven't been able to take a real trade since my loss of 8 points a few days ago. I feel I am just about ready to jump back in, but am still a bit scared. I am wrongly looking for the perfect trade that will lead to instant profits and help ease the fear. Clearly this is wrong, just being honest. I'm sure when I start, as long as I don't stop at one or two trades I should end up doing not too badly, but I still holding myself back.
Drownpruf, you are welcome to post in my journal, but I ask that you please keep this civil and on topic.
I haven't been able to take a real trade since my loss of 8 points a few days ago. I feel I am just about ready to jump back in, but am still a bit scared. I am wrongly looking for the perfect trade that will lead to instant profits and help ease the fear. Clearly this is wrong, just being honest. I'm sure when I start, as long as I don't stop at one or two trades I should end up doing not too badly, but I still holding myself back.
Fair enough!
For April 22
Looks like we are still heading up. Overnight, we have a high and low of 3545 and 3561, with a mean of 53. We can call this a trading range, but curiously, a tighter range of 3550 to 55 I can also make out, and this too would have a mean of 3553. So this mean really stands out.
In regards to a channel, we are definitely out the top of the steeper one, or roughly just past the mean of the one we drew from the beginning of March. If we do keep going up, it seems as if we will have to consider a change in the trend as we are now going into overbought territory. Because of this, I am going to be putting more emphasis on our lateral levels, since I'm not exactly sure where the bounds and means of our daily/hourly channel are.
So saying this, on the upside, we have a congestion area at 3593 with an ultimate high of 3599 to provide difficulty for price to cross if it does in fact continue up at the open. (Refer to hourly chart.. lines in red and dashed red)
On the way down, we have to get out of our trading range or overnight low value of 3545. Then we have have just below this 3542, a high from two days ago, which also provided some support for price at the end of yesterday. And we also have that mean of 3531 which was huge for yesterday.
So just like yesterday, we need to clear this range first, or perhaps we will just rotate around the mean of 3553.
Looks like we are still heading up. Overnight, we have a high and low of 3545 and 3561, with a mean of 53. We can call this a trading range, but curiously, a tighter range of 3550 to 55 I can also make out, and this too would have a mean of 3553. So this mean really stands out.
In regards to a channel, we are definitely out the top of the steeper one, or roughly just past the mean of the one we drew from the beginning of March. If we do keep going up, it seems as if we will have to consider a change in the trend as we are now going into overbought territory. Because of this, I am going to be putting more emphasis on our lateral levels, since I'm not exactly sure where the bounds and means of our daily/hourly channel are.
So saying this, on the upside, we have a congestion area at 3593 with an ultimate high of 3599 to provide difficulty for price to cross if it does in fact continue up at the open. (Refer to hourly chart.. lines in red and dashed red)
On the way down, we have to get out of our trading range or overnight low value of 3545. Then we have have just below this 3542, a high from two days ago, which also provided some support for price at the end of yesterday. And we also have that mean of 3531 which was huge for yesterday.
So just like yesterday, we need to clear this range first, or perhaps we will just rotate around the mean of 3553.
I should also add that on the posted charts above, you see volume which I use as a way to quickly differentiate between the overnight action and also to see the separation of the days. But on my one minute chart that I am trading from, volume has been minimized so as not to cause a distraction which wasn't all that helpful for my trading.
Ok.. since this action is pathetic right now, I wanted to post a question about volume to Db if he is reading.
As I was getting rid of the volume from my one minute chart, I came across this yesterday afternoon. I noticed the huge volume spike at "A". The bar at A shows an open at the low and a close near the high. With this high volume, this suggests to me that buying is what drove the price up, buyers really wanted it, its not that sellers just weren't selling. Granted, the price bar isn't huge in relation to the other bars, but price still nevertheless went up on much heavier volume.
Now if we take this into account, and see that after this bar price was supported, can we make the conclusion that because volume drove the price up, protecting this price level would be seen going forward? Can we make a case for interests by people with money who bought are making sure to protect this level and continuing to buy as price comes back down in order to support it?
Bigger question being, can volume even on a 1 minute chart help if you know how to interpret it and use it?
As I was getting rid of the volume from my one minute chart, I came across this yesterday afternoon. I noticed the huge volume spike at "A". The bar at A shows an open at the low and a close near the high. With this high volume, this suggests to me that buying is what drove the price up, buyers really wanted it, its not that sellers just weren't selling. Granted, the price bar isn't huge in relation to the other bars, but price still nevertheless went up on much heavier volume.
Now if we take this into account, and see that after this bar price was supported, can we make the conclusion that because volume drove the price up, protecting this price level would be seen going forward? Can we make a case for interests by people with money who bought are making sure to protect this level and continuing to buy as price comes back down in order to support it?
Bigger question being, can volume even on a 1 minute chart help if you know how to interpret it and use it?
Ok, we open up slow. Because Bern said there was an announcement coming, this helped build context.
A - A few mins before this, we broke out of the range but came back in. Seeing the upside move again, and seeing a RET in the 15 sec, lets mentally go long here. (I'm gonna get around to my real trades shortly.... fear is fading... gotta remember that the "rebirth" of really getting down to business started only a week ago, especially the better prep part of outlining exactly what to do at what level)
B - If I hesitated, there was another opportunity here to get in long. Lets look at what happens though. The first long goes about a point against you before going back up again. With this second long, you are looking at a loss of 2.5 points, which would more than likely lead to a scratch. I am a firm believer now of getting into a trade before you even know its good. The breathing room it gives you after I like and need.
Both longs ultimately fail, but perhaps the first one you could close our for a point or two gain after seeing the double top, the second one would have more than likely been a loss.
C - Back into the range we go and reverse at 57. It was hard to know at the time that this is where we would turn around. We didn't even make it to the range of the mean, so waiting for a better area for a trade seemed prudent. When we exit the range at 62, we have that double top at 67 to contend with, so looking for a trade here seemed iffy as well.
D - This rejection stands out now obviously, but didn't entice me to act on a trade.
E - F - G - These forms a trading range, although initially the range was tighter. Visually, the mean at F really stands out here, as with most ranges actually.
H - After price eventually leaves, the upper boundary of E which acted as "resistance", now acts as "support", as evidenced here and a few minutes later. (these words being used without too much emphasis placed on them, they are simple an area beyond which trades couldn't find a trade)
Well.. that's it. Lots of buildup today given the news, but price action wise it looks slow to me.
I need to do a more in depth analysis, but just not right now. Specifically I need to look at what should have I done. Today doesn't seem to offer many opportunities, so no need to dwell on it.
Curiously, as I'm typing this, price did hit just below 85, so it seems like it can make a run for the levels outlined in prep or either 93 or 99... but it might take all day, or it might not happen.
A - A few mins before this, we broke out of the range but came back in. Seeing the upside move again, and seeing a RET in the 15 sec, lets mentally go long here. (I'm gonna get around to my real trades shortly.... fear is fading... gotta remember that the "rebirth" of really getting down to business started only a week ago, especially the better prep part of outlining exactly what to do at what level)
B - If I hesitated, there was another opportunity here to get in long. Lets look at what happens though. The first long goes about a point against you before going back up again. With this second long, you are looking at a loss of 2.5 points, which would more than likely lead to a scratch. I am a firm believer now of getting into a trade before you even know its good. The breathing room it gives you after I like and need.
Both longs ultimately fail, but perhaps the first one you could close our for a point or two gain after seeing the double top, the second one would have more than likely been a loss.
C - Back into the range we go and reverse at 57. It was hard to know at the time that this is where we would turn around. We didn't even make it to the range of the mean, so waiting for a better area for a trade seemed prudent. When we exit the range at 62, we have that double top at 67 to contend with, so looking for a trade here seemed iffy as well.
D - This rejection stands out now obviously, but didn't entice me to act on a trade.
E - F - G - These forms a trading range, although initially the range was tighter. Visually, the mean at F really stands out here, as with most ranges actually.
H - After price eventually leaves, the upper boundary of E which acted as "resistance", now acts as "support", as evidenced here and a few minutes later. (these words being used without too much emphasis placed on them, they are simple an area beyond which trades couldn't find a trade)
Well.. that's it. Lots of buildup today given the news, but price action wise it looks slow to me.
I need to do a more in depth analysis, but just not right now. Specifically I need to look at what should have I done. Today doesn't seem to offer many opportunities, so no need to dwell on it.
Curiously, as I'm typing this, price did hit just below 85, so it seems like it can make a run for the levels outlined in prep or either 93 or 99... but it might take all day, or it might not happen.
From yesterday and overnight, we came quite close to matching the previous high of 3599 from April 10. The tighter downslopping channel, the one I haven't been able to even draw properly, is way overbought at this point. But the original one from March might still be in play. Its top matches very close to the high put in on April 10 of roughly 3600, so this level is quite important.
To draw a new channel, one that slopes up to capture the rise over the past few days would require a channel that is far too narrow I think, and hence too short term in nature. Lets see what happens if we get to 3600 or surpass this level and re-evaluate at that point.
For the overnight action, we have a fairly well defined trading range between 3576 and 3588, although there is a dip just below this. The mean of this is therefore at 3582. Looking below, there is actually quite a bit of airspace. Perhaps 3561 might provide a halt, but the mean of 3555 looks like an area where lots of trades happened.
As before, leaving this range will provide trade opportunities. To go out the top would get us to 3600 very quickly, and lots of action might happen here. Out the bottom gives us lots of room to drop. As we stand now, we can't even get back to the mean of this range at 82.
To draw a new channel, one that slopes up to capture the rise over the past few days would require a channel that is far too narrow I think, and hence too short term in nature. Lets see what happens if we get to 3600 or surpass this level and re-evaluate at that point.
For the overnight action, we have a fairly well defined trading range between 3576 and 3588, although there is a dip just below this. The mean of this is therefore at 3582. Looking below, there is actually quite a bit of airspace. Perhaps 3561 might provide a halt, but the mean of 3555 looks like an area where lots of trades happened.
As before, leaving this range will provide trade opportunities. To go out the top would get us to 3600 very quickly, and lots of action might happen here. Out the bottom gives us lots of room to drop. As we stand now, we can't even get back to the mean of this range at 82.
Aye. Had it planned out so well but didn't do anything about the plan.
A - We broke out nicely below the range, but hesitation on my part. All I could do was place a mental trade to track, but not an actual one. Saw the RET but didn't act on it.
B - In post, I can see the significance of this bar Opens and closes on the low. A short below this bar would be the clean entry of RET 1 point below the low of this bar. It does come back against you though if this is where the short was taken.
C - This was quite the rally back up. Of course the REJ to even re-enter the trading range is significant. A short below this bar at C was a zero risk trade as price never comes back to you.
D - Previous point is outlined here. Either the short or long would trigger. I saw that we would have either a double bottom with the previous low and go long, or break through the previous low for the short entry.
E - This bar shows an open and close on the low, classic sign of REJ.
F - We make our way through 61, which was outlined in prep as the top of previous day overnight range, which really isn't all that significant today. The mean of that range, maybe more so.
G - Hitting a low here is slightly below the mean. This low is also slightly lower than the bottom line of the channel we can draw in that tilts up from about a week ago. Of course the numbers don't have to be exact though.
H - The double bottom here is quite telling. Not only is this a double bottom with G, but this two bar set opens on high and closes on low, and next bar opens on low and closes on high. Going long above this bar though doesn't get you far.
I - Here we look like we have a REJ to go lower and form a HL but.....
J - We do go lower, so this is now our HL. Had it been traded as a HL before, there would have to a scratch, and I doubt there would be a re-entry above this bar.
And from here on, we have some REJs and mostly just ranging, through different ranges mind you.
The big lesson for today though is getting into that short early. I had it down pat in prep but didn't act on it. I see in my post review now lots of opportunities to get in, but I still didn't. I guess I'm just not accepting the fact that there will be loses in trading, so I'm trying to avoid this. Lets see what happens tomorrow.
A - We broke out nicely below the range, but hesitation on my part. All I could do was place a mental trade to track, but not an actual one. Saw the RET but didn't act on it.
B - In post, I can see the significance of this bar Opens and closes on the low. A short below this bar would be the clean entry of RET 1 point below the low of this bar. It does come back against you though if this is where the short was taken.
C - This was quite the rally back up. Of course the REJ to even re-enter the trading range is significant. A short below this bar at C was a zero risk trade as price never comes back to you.
D - Previous point is outlined here. Either the short or long would trigger. I saw that we would have either a double bottom with the previous low and go long, or break through the previous low for the short entry.
E - This bar shows an open and close on the low, classic sign of REJ.
F - We make our way through 61, which was outlined in prep as the top of previous day overnight range, which really isn't all that significant today. The mean of that range, maybe more so.
G - Hitting a low here is slightly below the mean. This low is also slightly lower than the bottom line of the channel we can draw in that tilts up from about a week ago. Of course the numbers don't have to be exact though.
H - The double bottom here is quite telling. Not only is this a double bottom with G, but this two bar set opens on high and closes on low, and next bar opens on low and closes on high. Going long above this bar though doesn't get you far.
I - Here we look like we have a REJ to go lower and form a HL but.....
J - We do go lower, so this is now our HL. Had it been traded as a HL before, there would have to a scratch, and I doubt there would be a re-entry above this bar.
And from here on, we have some REJs and mostly just ranging, through different ranges mind you.
The big lesson for today though is getting into that short early. I had it down pat in prep but didn't act on it. I see in my post review now lots of opportunities to get in, but I still didn't. I guess I'm just not accepting the fact that there will be loses in trading, so I'm trying to avoid this. Lets see what happens tomorrow.