WeatherWealth
Sponsor
Following my mostly bearish attitude in natural gas the last few weeks on weak Fall demand and bearish EIAs, some colder weather will return to much of the eastern half of the U.S. And possibly parts of western Europe as we head through November.
Two important climatic features I look at (MJO and PDO) will be in colder phases that could help natural gas prices bottom.
Source: Twitter and WeatherWealth newsletter by Jim Roemer
The negative PDO combined with record global warm oceans has resulted in a situation, in which for most of the last 4 winters, a trader could sell out of the money January-March natural gas call options.
However, as the western North Pacific cools (map above--right) and the PDO goes more neutral, historically, November has a colder outlook.
Even though the MJO will be in a favorable position for cold weather as well, the record-warming Arctic and El Nino should prevent major extended cold.
Am I advocating buying call options in natural gas? Not necessarily? Why? It will take sustained winter cold for more than a month to eat into supplies and winter could end up being warmer than normal later. That means, potentially, waiting for a rally in natural gas in the next couple of weeks and looking to sell call options.
Which strike prices should you sell and how do you trade Nat gas in the short term? What is my forecast for the rest of winter for natural gas and all commodities?
I invite you (here) to download a 2-week FREE trial to WeatherWealth and see my FREE El Nino report.
Jim Roemer
Commodity Trading Adviser
Meteorologist
Two important climatic features I look at (MJO and PDO) will be in colder phases that could help natural gas prices bottom.
Source: Twitter and WeatherWealth newsletter by Jim Roemer
The negative PDO combined with record global warm oceans has resulted in a situation, in which for most of the last 4 winters, a trader could sell out of the money January-March natural gas call options.
However, as the western North Pacific cools (map above--right) and the PDO goes more neutral, historically, November has a colder outlook.
Even though the MJO will be in a favorable position for cold weather as well, the record-warming Arctic and El Nino should prevent major extended cold.
Am I advocating buying call options in natural gas? Not necessarily? Why? It will take sustained winter cold for more than a month to eat into supplies and winter could end up being warmer than normal later. That means, potentially, waiting for a rally in natural gas in the next couple of weeks and looking to sell call options.
Which strike prices should you sell and how do you trade Nat gas in the short term? What is my forecast for the rest of winter for natural gas and all commodities?
I invite you (here) to download a 2-week FREE trial to WeatherWealth and see my FREE El Nino report.
Jim Roemer
Commodity Trading Adviser
Meteorologist
