Trading NADEX Knock-Outs

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"New Phase" Trading

Since July 14, 2022 (approximately two months ago) the Bias Overlap version of Numerical Price Prediction has enjoyed an evolution that has seen it enter a solid state of ultimate stability. Accordingly, nothing will be explained here (though descriptions might be included) and no analysis will take place in the following posts. All I want to do here is record actions considered or taken to spot any weaknesses in my decision-making process, and to track exactly how much money is being made, or might potentially be made, trading NADEX Knock-Outs using New Phase tactics and strategies.

Saturday | September 17, 2022

 

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Sunday | September 18, 2022 | 4:43 PM PST

The ideal level from which to short this pair was up at 96.16. Even so, the structure is not ideal given that the hourly price range channel is not yet bearish. So, it will be interesting to me to see if the two-hour and eight-hour temporal resistance levels and the 60-minute statistical resistance level win out in the end, or if the slightly bullish 60-minute price flow ends up pushing the rate higher. (Obviously, the longer-term trend lines are all bearish, or I wouldn't be shorting this pair.)

 

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Sunday | September 18, 2022 | 7:20 PM PST
Unfortunately, I wasn't here an hour ago to short AUDUSD at 0.6716, and it's now down to 0.6705...

 

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...it will be interesting to me to see if the two-hour and eight-hour temporal resistance levels and the 60-minute statistical resistance level win out in the end, or if the slightly bullish 60-minute price flow ends up pushing the rate higher.

It appears that the resistance levels were able to hold sway over the hourly price flow, which is now bearish. All that remains to be seen is if price action will follow through so that the floor of the knock-out is eventually hit before the rate turns north again and kicks me out of the position for a loss.

USDCHF doesn't seem inclined to pull back before heading higher...at least not for the moment...

10:00 PM PST | Sunday | September 18, 2022

 

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Sunday | 11:40 PM PST

If I were being conservative, I would pocket my gains now (especially since the AUDJPY position has somehow disappeared, which means the TOTAL should be like ten to twenty bucks MORE than $50). If I did the same thing tomorrow, and then the next day, and the next, I could double an initial $200 opening balance in four days, and start purchasing two contracts per trade instead of one.

If I continued doubling everything every four days, the compounding returns would soon explode exponentially. Of course, though my risk-to-reward ratio would be roughly 1:1 or better, I would be blatantly ignoring the 1% rule. But then again, if my daily win rate remained at 100%, the chances of my blowing up the account would essentially be theoretical only.

Let me see however, if I wait, whether these positions will eventually return the full $50, $62 and $43 dollar payouts that they have the potential to deliver, or if they turn back on themselves so that the former winners turn into losers.

 

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Monday | September 19, 2022 | 5:55 AM PST

Based on the price action from the current 24-hour market cycle at least, I would have maximize daily earnings had I exited all my positions when rates connected with the eight-our temporal support or resistance levels, as appropriate.

So, now I will be watching to see if things push ahead, or pull back, during the New York session.

 

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USDCAD offered the full $43 payout at around 6:30 AM PST this morning. But, in reviewing the order ticket, I see that I make an error when entering the position, risking a $60 loss for a $43 win, when I should have done just the opposite.

EURGBP was a "buy" at around midnight last night. But, I guess I wasn't paying attention...

 

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Monday | September 19, 2022 | 8:15 AM PST

At this hour, three out of four of the remaining positions have pulled back to negative territory (i.e., are in the red). This supports your contention that strategic trading (carried out competently) is more profitable than a buy-and-hold approach; and is an absolute must if you want to enjoy daily profits and avoid experiencing drawdowns. It also further recommends cashing in on your positions as soon as rates make contact with the eight-hour temporal support or resistance levels, as appropriate.

 

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This supports your contention that strategic trading (carried out competently) is more profitable than a buy-and-hold approach; and is an absolute must if you wish to enjoy daily profits and avoid experiencing drawdowns.

In doing so, use your five-minute "GREEN HOUR" chart configuration to optimize your entry and exit levels.

 

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Monday | September 19, 2022 | 9:00 PM PST

So, I was knocked out of the GBPUSD and AUDJPY positions, and what remains does not look good...

This supports your contention that strategic trading (carried out competently) is more profitable than a buy-and-hold approach; and is an absolute must if you want to enjoy daily profits and avoid experiencing drawdowns. It also further recommends cashing in on your positions as soon as rates make contact with the eight-hour temporal support or resistance levels (as appropriate) before they turn back on themselves so that the former winners turn into losers.