Trading NADEX Knock-Outs

[expiated]

So, it appears that if I had stuck it out, my second AUDUSD trade would have resulted in a successful outcome:

I didn't mark it, but I think the EURUSD target would have been hit by now as well...

Consequently, I will continue to look to the two-day/48-hour approach as my go-to strategy for using Numerical Price Prediction to trade NADEX Knock-Outs. I look forward to seeing how long it takes me to gain enough confidence in the methodology next week to begin remaining in the positions to the very end.

I will also continue exploring the possibility of using the weekly approach that I will go back to designing as soon as I finish typing this entry.

 

[expiated]

Friday | June 17, 2022 | 1:00 PM PST

I will also continue exploring the possibility of using the weekly approach that I will go back to designing as soon as I finish typing this entry.

This is the lower panel from the hourly chart that I converted from weekly charts displaying typical 5-day price ranges...

The brown indicator is calculated from the weekly price range envelope. The blue one is generated by the four-day price range, and the green oscillator represents the daily price range.

The bands at the very tip top and the very bottom (-5.5 and 6.5) apply to the four-day measure, though I suppose one could also consider them when evaluating the daily oscillator as well. The other two (inner) levels apply to all three ranges

I am basically looking for these three scenarios:

1. If the weekly oscillator is rising, especially after having just left its lowest level (-0.33945), which is to say, the bottom of the weekly price range; AND the daily and two-day baselines in the main chart (not pictured) are sloping upward; I will consider entering a long position if and when I see the daily oscillator form a valley/spike below any of the lower bands, suggesting a temporary pullback an otherwise bullish market (and vice versa for entering short positions).
2. If the four-day oscillator falls below its lowest level (-5.5), I will consider entering a long position if and when I see the rate begin to climb up out of its depths (and vice versa for entering short positions), especially it this means it will be rejoining the general overall directional flow of price.
3. If the weekly oscillator falls below either of its lower levels (0 and -0.33945), I will consider entering a long position if and when I see the rate begin to climb up out of this lower end of its price range (and vice versa for entering short positions), especially if it this means it will be rejoining the general overall trend.

 

[expiated]

ARE THERE ANY PAIRS YOU EXPECT TO RISE OR FALL NEXT WEEK?

At 134.97, USDJPY is at the very top of its weekly price range. But, I will need to wait for next week's open to get the actual projected top for that week.

As of this moment, USDCAD is already too high for the week. But again, I will need to wait for next week's open to get the actual projected top for that week.

USDCHF is within the lower end of its range, but of course, this doesn't mean it won't continue to fall.

 

[expiated]

At 134.97, USDJPY is at the very top of its weekly price range. But, I will need to wait for next week's open to get the actual projected top for that week.

The projected top turned out to be approximately 136.14. The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen's current price is at 135.08.

By the way, I can't begin trading Knock-outs each week until Monday at 3:00 PM PST.

 

[expiated]

Thursday | June 23, 2022 | 10:50 AM PST
Anecdotal Notes: Numerical Price Prediction Four-hour/Weekly Bias Overlap Strategy:

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Though the two-day price range envelope at 1.70% deviation tracks the general, overall day-to-day price flow, it is too slow (i.e., lagging) for you to use it in that capacity. Rather, its utility is in giving you an idea as to where the odds of rates reversing direction begin to increase, all the way up to about 3.00% deviation, to help you execute mean reversion/regression toward the mean strategies from a daily/weekly perspective.

So then, the role of tracking the overall general intraday price flow, as discovered via the use of one-hour charts, falls to the 16-hour price range envelope at 0.50%, 1.00%, 1.50% and 2.00% deviation. But here again, due to an abundance of lag, the main function of this measure is in helping traders anticipate where the odds of rates reversing direction begin to rise, only in this case, from an intraday perspective.

The other measure one-hour charts suggest using in this same capacity is the eight-hour temporal support/resistance channel.

These potential reversals are tracked by the two- to two-and-a-half hour baselines, and confirmed by the eight-hour measure.

Entries and exits are executed using the twenty-minute (and faster) baselines, as confirmed by the fanning moving averages (i.e, the 30-, 40- and 50-minute baselines) on lower time frame charts.

 

[expiated]

Hmmm...

The spread on the middle two knock-outs is two pips, yet only one for the bottom knock-out, and a ridiculous ten pips for the knock-out on the top!

 

[expiated]

Just posted in your Duxon's Archive thread:

For example, next week you'll want to buy AUDUSD if and when the two-hour (and 30-minute) baseline(s) pullback from, and then subsequently rejoin, the eight-hour price flow heading north.

Basically, you want to be trading in the direction of aligned 30-minute, two-hour, and eight-hour baselines. (Faster measures are too fast, and slower measures are too slow.)

If all three are not in agreement, then just go with the slopes of the 30- and 120-minute measures alone.

 

[expiated]

I will also continue exploring the possibility of using the weekly approach that I will go back to designing as soon as I finish typing this entry.

Trading the weekly tops and bottoms was indeed an effective methodology, but it offered only a limited number of opportunities, which had me seeking additional strategies. Moreover, it would appear that the Two-day/48-Hour Approach will not be my go-to strategy after all, for after re-reading the descriptions I wrote in my book (in progress) several months ago and melding that information with my trade experience from this last week, I wound up with a promising looking Eight-hour, Two-hour, 30-minute Bias Overlap tactic/technique that has yet to be implemented, so I will have to test it this upcoming week to see if it works as well as it looks in theory.

 

[expiated]

I wound up with a promising looking Eight-hour, Two-hour, 30-minute Bias Overlap tactic/technique that has yet to be implemented, so I will have to test it this upcoming week to see if it works as well as it looks in theory.

I actually had a losing day yesterday. As soon as I would get in on a trend, the asset would reverse direction and head the other way...

Consequently, I want to see if I have better luck today if I trade the 20-minute binary options.

 

[expiated]

This October 24, 2020 video is the earliest reference I can find to Nadex Knock-outs...

But apparently, this same instrument was originally called "Touch Brackets," and was initially introduced some time around November 6, 2018...