Trading NADEX Knock-Outs

[expiated]

I'm therefore expecting to see this pair stall for several hours before making any significant moves.

USDJPY did not simply stall... it reversed direction and stopped me out. So, I compared the 15-minute chart to my one-minute configuration to see which measures at the lower level communicated what happened.

This led me right back to eight-minute price range envelopes confirmed by the 12-minute baseline, with the five-minute envelope at 0.05% deviation following rates a bit more closely. So, it appears that if I want to make money every single minute of the day, which IS what I want to do, the facts once again recommend trading primarily using one-minute charts, which is the plan for tomorrow.

However, I'm going to start practicing now using the demo platform, and learn as much as I can in the meantime.

 

[expiated]

My plan was to begin live trading at 5:00 Pacific this morning via the Starbucks on my daily "route," except that the business didn't open at 5 AM like it was supposed to. (I checked in with the manager at 5 AM yesterday.)

Since the battery on my laptop was getting low, I simply plotted cross hairs at all the current locations at the time, along with an arrow indicating the direction in which I expected rates to travel, so that I could come back later (which is now) and analyze what happened. I want to answer four (or five) questions…

1. Did the rate take the route I anticipated?
2. If so, how long and how far did it go?
3. If not, which indicator(s) best represented what actually happened?
4. Can I use the above insight(s), if any, to code a new indicator or indicators that help me better "read" the market?

 

[expiated]

This pair gave me nothin'...

Acting in accordance with the slope of the of the 70-minute baseline, and the positional relationship between the 20-minute and 70-minute baselines, (not to mention continuing the current price pattern), it reversed direction immediately and climbed 80 pips higher.

 

[expiated]

This pair ignored the neutral 70-minute baseline and defied the bullish positional relationship of the 20- and 70-minute baselines.

It fell as anticipate... 27 pips in 40 minutes.

 

[expiated]

Like the first pair, this asset gave me nothing.

But at the time I entered, the shorter-term moving averages were all piled up one on top of the other, suggesting a neutral sentiment. Note also that the 20-minute baseline was neutral in the first example as well.

 

[expiated]

I was given 10 pips profit here in approximately between 20 to 40 minutes.

I'm going to stop here because I'm seeing a pattern begin to emerge. Typical returns, including addition examples I just now glanced at relatively quickly, offered 10 to 40 pips profit in about 40 minutes (though 70 pips' worth of profit in two hours was also observed).

And here is the measure that is saying to me, "Look to me for the most actionable intraday trend!"

It is the eight-minute price range envelope at 0.07% deviation.

But, when things are looking a bit "wobbly," rely on the slope of the 20-minute baseline to offer a stable and clear interpretation of the intraday bias/sentiment...

Do NOT look to the 70-minute measure, because it is WAY too lagging (see the middle example above).

 

[expiated]

But, lets see what happens tomorrow when I try to evaluate everything in real time, as it is all unfolding in the now...

I never did this. But just now, evaluating the above indicators to actual price action somehow led me back to 15-minute charts with the two-hour price range envelopes. I think it was because I wanted to look into trading 45-minute reversals (once again). However, I think pullbacks in the 45-minute price range is the way to go, using the "insights" from the above posts to select entry (and exit) levels.

I need to catch USDJPY when it reverses south, and GBPUSD as it reverses north.

 

[expiated]

Thursday | May 19, 2022 | 10:25 PM PST

I have my first, what "looks" to be, promising trade opportunities with EURUSD and GBPUSD. Unfortunately, I will not be able to monitor/manage these positions, so I pray I find "special" favor with God on these two...

 

[expiated]

Typical returns, including additional examples I just now glanced at... offered 10 to 40 pips profit in about 40 minutes.

When I woke up in the middle of the night, GBPUSD was offering 10 pips worth of profit, which I pocketed. I could have done the same thing with EURUSD had I been able to monitor and manage the position. But unfortunately, it eventually turned against me and ultimately stopped me out for a loss.

So then, the safest thing to do if I can't stick with my laptop is to set a take-profit target of from six to ten pips.

 

[expiated]

15:43 OANDA Platform Time
05:43 AM PST

CADUSD is looking at a 45-minute baseline that has gone from bearish to bullish with the rate having climbed above the 70-minute measure. The 20-minute baseline is slightly bullish with the positional arrangement/relationship of the eight-, 12-, 20-, and 45-minute moving averages aligned in a bullish fanning pattern.

The green instantaneous moving averages began forming an upward hook, which is why I executed the trade, but they immediately reversed direction to form a downward hook right behind it. They are on their way up again a second time now, but whatever happens, I will be watching to see if price ultimately manages to rise to the previous local high at 1.2801, which would mean a $4.00 return on the trade. (The Forex market looks very "sluggish" so far this morning.)

UPDATE: My target was hit at 6:09 AM PST. So then, that took about 26 minutes.