It took about 65 minutes for this target to be hit.
Trading NADEX Knock-Outs
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I'm right more than half the time, but not even close to almost all of the time, and there have been two or three moves in price that really surprised me. Taking a look at the charts after the fact suggests to me that part of the problem is that 15 minutes is too slow and four-and-a-half minutes is too fast (i.e., picking up too many insignificant fluctuations in rates).
Eyeballing the charts led me to conclude that ten minutes would work, but it too was ultimately too slow. When all was said and done, I ended up back at six minutes, which was previously a validating/confirmation measure that I removed from my chart setups, but is now the main indicator defining intraday price flow, except before I was using the moving average, but I'm now using the (dynamic) typical price range envelope.
I also introduced temporal support and resistance, and for the time being at least, feel these two measures give me an honest assessment regarding the intraday direction price is headed in real time...
(Though not pictured here, the last major modification I made [other than deleting the four-and-a-half minute baseline] was replacing the instantaneous moving averages with three versions of the two-minute baseline.)
I just bought USDCAD based on this new configuration, and I'm already up $6.00!
There is nothing wrong with the price projector indicator. So, I am going back to plotting it on the chart. On the other hand, the sidekick approximates the two-minute baseline, but is slower (i.e. lagging) and is therefore unneeded.
There is basically only one scenario now... Reverse direction every time the six-minute price flow reverses direction.
Eyeballing the charts led me to conclude that ten minutes would work, but it too was ultimately too slow. When all was said and done, I ended up back at six minutes, which was previously a validating/confirmation measure that I removed from my chart setups, but is now the main indicator defining intraday price flow, except before I was using the moving average, but I'm now using the (dynamic) typical price range envelope.
I also introduced temporal support and resistance, and for the time being at least, feel these two measures give me an honest assessment regarding the intraday direction price is headed in real time...
(Though not pictured here, the last major modification I made [other than deleting the four-and-a-half minute baseline] was replacing the instantaneous moving averages with three versions of the two-minute baseline.)
I just bought USDCAD based on this new configuration, and I'm already up $6.00!
There is nothing wrong with the price projector indicator. So, I am going back to plotting it on the chart. On the other hand, the sidekick approximates the two-minute baseline, but is slower (i.e. lagging) and is therefore unneeded.
There is basically only one scenario now... Reverse direction every time the six-minute price flow reverses direction.
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Numerical Price Prediction Six-minute Price Flow Trade Strategy
Monday | May 9, 2022 | 8:15 PM
I'm hoping there will be little else to do here. I don't know what might possibly be the mathematics behind it, but it seems to me that six minutes should be my sweet spot for day trading Forex currency pairs.
On the face of it, one might think it pretty obvious that the setup/configuration from the previous post is destined to perform wonderfully, God willing. But as they say, the proof is in the pudding.
I'd like to start testing it tonight, but since there are no profit targets with this approach (you simply let your winners run and then reverse direction with the six-minute price flow) open positions must be monitored on an ongoing basis. I'm therefore going to record all my entries so I can keep track of where I'm in the market at all times.
But first, I want to explain to myself clearly how I know that a given pair is reversing direction....
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHEN THE SIX MINUTE PRICE FLOW IS REVERSING DIRECTION?
Monday | May 9, 2022 | 8:15 PM
I'm hoping there will be little else to do here. I don't know what might possibly be the mathematics behind it, but it seems to me that six minutes should be my sweet spot for day trading Forex currency pairs.
On the face of it, one might think it pretty obvious that the setup/configuration from the previous post is destined to perform wonderfully, God willing. But as they say, the proof is in the pudding.
I'd like to start testing it tonight, but since there are no profit targets with this approach (you simply let your winners run and then reverse direction with the six-minute price flow) open positions must be monitored on an ongoing basis. I'm therefore going to record all my entries so I can keep track of where I'm in the market at all times.
But first, I want to explain to myself clearly how I know that a given pair is reversing direction....
HOW DO YOU KNOW WHEN THE SIX MINUTE PRICE FLOW IS REVERSING DIRECTION?
- First of all, the Two-minute Baselines will switch from ebbing and flowing primarily on one side of the two Price Projection Sidekicks to the other.
- Also, the upper and lower band(s) of the dynamic six-minute price range envelope will begin curving in the other direction.
- Additionally, the floor and ceiling of the Donchian Channel will begin stair stepping AND making steady progress in the new direction.
- And finally, candlesticks will begin painting on the opposite side of the Price Projection Indicator. However, this will be a delayed event and serve as lagging confirmation.
8:20 PM PST - Short EURJPY (If you were monitoring your charts more closely, you would already be about 16 pips into profit territory with this trade.)
Go long USDCAD.
Sell USDJPY.
8:50 PM PST - Closed the USDCAD long position and sold it instead.LL
Will now buy USDJPY and EURJPY.
Go long USDCAD.
Sell USDJPY.
8:50 PM PST - Closed the USDCAD long position and sold it instead.LL
Will now buy USDJPY and EURJPY.
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I need to add a fifth condition or signal between the first and the second...
"The two Price Projection Sidekicks will cross over from one side of the Price Projection Indicator to the other."
Tuesday | May 10, 2022 | 1:00 PM PST
We are all finished here, Cuz!
Just some quick thoughts for me to flesh out at some other time...
So, from my perspective, the "eureka" measure for intraday trading dropped down from 20 minutes, to 15 minutes, to six minutes. This is where I want to focus if my goal is to know with a high degree of certainty where rates are most likely go next.
Nevertheless, in a "dead" market, (i.e., neutral, consolidating, side winding, treading water, etc.) it's possible that I might find some degree of success trading between the upper and lower bands of the 15-minute price range envelope at approximately 0.12% to 0.18% deviation.
To validate this "Six Minute" approach to implementing NPP, I was active straight through this 24-hour market cycle (when I wasn't sleeping). However, it's possible that the most efficient approach to applying this final strategy would be to make just a few trades—ONLY when the slopes of the 15- and 45-minute baselines are satisfying specific minimum degrees of steepness (0.0226 for the former and 0.009 for the latter), and only during the hours that the New York session is experiencing a high level of fluidity and volatility—but to increase my stake in these ("guaranteed" to be profitable) trades significantly so that each of the resulting payouts will be relatively substantial.
I also don't want to forget about the potential returns offered by the strategic application of a regression toward the mean/mean reversion trading tactic when rates have deviated from the 45-minute baseline by 0.30% or more.
On a five-minute chart, you might want to sell when the relative position of price within the upper and lower bands of a bearish 15-minute price range envelope (as registered on the lower-panel price anomaly channel) is greater than 0.64516.
Likewise, you might wish to buy when the relative position of price between the upper and lower bands of a bullish 15-minute price range envelope is less than 0.34584.
We are all finished here, Cuz!
Just some quick thoughts for me to flesh out at some other time...
So, from my perspective, the "eureka" measure for intraday trading dropped down from 20 minutes, to 15 minutes, to six minutes. This is where I want to focus if my goal is to know with a high degree of certainty where rates are most likely go next.
Nevertheless, in a "dead" market, (i.e., neutral, consolidating, side winding, treading water, etc.) it's possible that I might find some degree of success trading between the upper and lower bands of the 15-minute price range envelope at approximately 0.12% to 0.18% deviation.
To validate this "Six Minute" approach to implementing NPP, I was active straight through this 24-hour market cycle (when I wasn't sleeping). However, it's possible that the most efficient approach to applying this final strategy would be to make just a few trades—ONLY when the slopes of the 15- and 45-minute baselines are satisfying specific minimum degrees of steepness (0.0226 for the former and 0.009 for the latter), and only during the hours that the New York session is experiencing a high level of fluidity and volatility—but to increase my stake in these ("guaranteed" to be profitable) trades significantly so that each of the resulting payouts will be relatively substantial.
I also don't want to forget about the potential returns offered by the strategic application of a regression toward the mean/mean reversion trading tactic when rates have deviated from the 45-minute baseline by 0.30% or more.
On a five-minute chart, you might want to sell when the relative position of price within the upper and lower bands of a bearish 15-minute price range envelope (as registered on the lower-panel price anomaly channel) is greater than 0.64516.
Likewise, you might wish to buy when the relative position of price between the upper and lower bands of a bullish 15-minute price range envelope is less than 0.34584.
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Sunday | May 15, 2022 | 3:00 PM PST
I KNOW I have entered a new phase of my trading journey in that I just observed myself completely set aside my laptop for almost two days, and I would have spent most of yesterday studying body language instead, except that I forgot to bring the book with me when I left its proximity.
So, satisfied that my one-minute chart configuration tells me everything I need to know, and concluding that the corresponding chart is approaching a point where it will be set in stone (if it isn't already there), this afternoon I set about determining exactly what each indicator is telling me and, in light of this information, precisely when I should execute trades.
As a result, I resolved that I would trade only a single setup—that being when the high or low of a given pair is at the 12-minute temporal support or resistance level that is opposite the slope of the 12-minute price flow (AND the positive or negative state of the six- and eight-minute baseline quotient) as appropriate).
(I will code the corresponding indicator/alert signal before I resume trading my live account on Wednesday.)
However, because the greatest amount of return can be realized by catching the beginning of a 12-minute price flow reversal and letting it run, I wondered if there not might be some type of categorical, absolute, unqualified way to identify such an event.
In my quest to find an answer, I ended up settling on an indicator that measures the distance between the 15- and 105-minute temporal support and resistance levels. It's not perfect, but it IS yet another objective member of the "multitude of counselors" for me to take into consideration...
(An ideal trade setup is when the red or green lower-panel indicator is outside of the channel and the black lower-panel indicator is touching the opposite side of the channel, or is at least beyond the halfway mark.)
But, the MAIN idea is to buy or sell whenever the red or green oscillator climbs or crawls to the outside of the price anomaly channel, as appropriate.
I KNOW I have entered a new phase of my trading journey in that I just observed myself completely set aside my laptop for almost two days, and I would have spent most of yesterday studying body language instead, except that I forgot to bring the book with me when I left its proximity.
So, satisfied that my one-minute chart configuration tells me everything I need to know, and concluding that the corresponding chart is approaching a point where it will be set in stone (if it isn't already there), this afternoon I set about determining exactly what each indicator is telling me and, in light of this information, precisely when I should execute trades.
As a result, I resolved that I would trade only a single setup—that being when the high or low of a given pair is at the 12-minute temporal support or resistance level that is opposite the slope of the 12-minute price flow (AND the positive or negative state of the six- and eight-minute baseline quotient) as appropriate).
(I will code the corresponding indicator/alert signal before I resume trading my live account on Wednesday.)
However, because the greatest amount of return can be realized by catching the beginning of a 12-minute price flow reversal and letting it run, I wondered if there not might be some type of categorical, absolute, unqualified way to identify such an event.
In my quest to find an answer, I ended up settling on an indicator that measures the distance between the 15- and 105-minute temporal support and resistance levels. It's not perfect, but it IS yet another objective member of the "multitude of counselors" for me to take into consideration...
(An ideal trade setup is when the red or green lower-panel indicator is outside of the channel and the black lower-panel indicator is touching the opposite side of the channel, or is at least beyond the halfway mark.)
But, the MAIN idea is to buy or sell whenever the red or green oscillator climbs or crawls to the outside of the price anomaly channel, as appropriate.
I could not make this indicator work.